Missile Proliferation and the Strategic Balance in South Asia

Summary

This report analyzes the policy implications of missile proliferation in South Asia, providing

information on India's and Pakistan's missile programs and their role in regional security. The

report also provides background on the India-Pakistan conflict and the U.S. role, and reviews the

region's strategic security dynamics. The report concludes with a review of key issues and options

for U.S. policy.

The United States has long been concerned about the proliferation of nuclear weapons and their

delivery systems in South Asia. This concern became acute after May 1998, when both India and

Pakistan tested nuclear explosive devices. Since that time, both countries have continued testing

nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, and both have established command and control authorities to

oversee their nuclear arsenals. India and Pakistan have fought three wars since 1947 and have

significant unsettled territorial disputes. Although the status of weaponization is unclear, a

slow-speed arms race appears to be underway on the Asian Subcontinent, and the proliferation of

missile capabilities in South Asia has been identified as a potentially major threat to regional stability

and to key U.S. foreign policy goals.

A persistent aspect of U.S. engagement in the region has been the difficulty of maintaining a

balanced approach toward two antagonistic countries while simultaneously promoting perceived U.S.

interests. During the 1990s, U.S. security policy toward South Asia focused on preventing weapons

proliferation, but the Bush Administration shifted to a more "pragmatic" approach emphasizing

"restraint" in this area. For perhaps the first period in history the United States currently enjoys

simultaneously positive relations with both countries.

While relationships between the United States, India, and Pakistan have taken on a positive hue,

potential for regional instability persists. The strategic capabilities of India and Pakistan could

provide a ready catalyst for transforming disputes or terrorist incidents into potentially cataclysmic

confrontations. Both countries also are pursuing the development or acquisition of missile defense

systems. It is unknown at this early stage if missile defenses will offer a degree of stability to the

region or if they will create an imbalance, thus prompting the other country to build more missiles

to compensate for the disparity.

Key issues for Congress addressed in this report are the extent to which missile proliferation

in South Asia enhances or upsets regional stability and the role of U.S. policy in promoting such

stability, as well as in tension reduction and nonproliferation. Levels of U.S. foreign assistance to

India and Pakistan, the establishment of aid restrictions, the transfer of conventional weapons

platforms (possibly including missile defense systems), the setting of export control parameters and

nonproliferation goals, and the maintenance of policy and intelligence oversight of U.S. relations

with India and Pakistan constitute additional issues of concern to Congress. This report will be

updated as warranted by events.