North Korea: A Chronology of Events from 2016 to 2020

Summary

This report provides a detailed chronology of events relevant to U.S. relations with North Korea from January 2016, when North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test, through the end of March 2020. (For background, the chronology includes a number of milestone events before 2016.) That nuclear test launched a new period of concentrated attention on North Korea (officially the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, or DPRK). The Obama and Trump Administrations made denuclearization of North Korea one of their top foreign policy priorities, and Congress has devoted considerable attention to North Korea and the executive branch’s North Korea policy.

The 2016-March 2020 period can be divided into two chapters: the “belligerent phase” and the “diplomatic phase.” During the belligerent phase, in 2016 and 2017, North Korea conducted scores of missile tests and three nuclear weapons tests. The Obama and Trump Administrations responded by expanding multilateral and unilateral sanctions against North Korea. Under its “maximum pressure” approach, the Trump Administration led the United Nations Security Council (UNSC)—including China and Russia—to pass three new sanctions resolutions that expanded the requirements of U.N. member states to halt or curtail their military, diplomatic, and economic interactions with North Korea. In repeated public remarks during 2017, Trump Administration officials, including the President, emphasized the possibility of launching a preventive military strike against North Korea.

The diplomatic phase began in early 2018. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un dropped North Korea’s belligerent posture and embarked on a “charm offensive” that led to a flurry of diplomatic activity. Over an 18-month period, Kim held 12 summit meetings with the leaders of several major regional powers: five with Chinese President Xi Jinping, three with South Korean President Moon Jae-in, three with President Trump, and one with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In the course of these events, Kim publicly stated that he would “work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” To that end, he pledged not to conduct nuclear or long-range missile tests while dialogue continued and agreed to the “permanent dismantlement” of the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center “as the United States takes corresponding measures.” South Korea, North Korea, and the United States agreed to build a “peace regime,” the first step of which apparently would be a declaration formally ending the Korean War. In addition, President Trump unilaterally cancelled most large-scale U.S.-South Korea military exercises, a step long sought by North Korea and China. The two Koreas signed a military confidence-building agreement designed to reduce tensions, particularly at the demilitarized zone that separates North and South Korea.

Since Kim and President Trump’s first summit in Singapore in June 2018, however, little progress has been made on denuclearization, despite two more Kim-Trump meetings. Since the June 2019 meeting, only one round of talks has been held and it did not produce a breakthrough. U.S. officials say their North Korean counterparts have refused to engage in additional negotiations. The deadlock largely is due to disagreements over the timing and sequencing of concessions that each side should provide. In particular, North Korea is seeking significant sanctions relief in return for the steps it claims it already has taken, but U.S. officials have said sanctions will not be eased until denuclearization is complete.

Meanwhile, North Korea appears to be enhancing its military capabilities. In addition to continuing to produce nuclear material, between May 2019 and late March 2020, North Korea conducted multiple short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) tests; such tests violate United Nations Security Council prohibitions. In February 2020 written testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, the Commander of U.S. Northern Command said “recent engine testing suggests North Korea may be prepared to flight test an even more capable ICBM design that could enhance Kim’s ability to threaten our homeland during a crisis or conflict.” President Trump has dismissed the significance of these tests. Since the Hanoi summit, North Korea also has largely refused to interact with South Korea, spurning Moon’s efforts.

In a possible signal that the active diplomatic phase of current U.S.-DPRK relations may be coming to an end, Kim in December 2019 announced that, due to the United States’ policies “to completely strangle and stifle the DPRK ... there is no ground” for North Korea to continue to maintain its nuclear and missile testing moratorium. Kim criticized the United States’ continuation of sanctions, joint military exercises with South Korea, and shipments of advanced military equipment to South Korea. Kim warned, “the world will witness a new strategic weapon to be possessed by the DPRK in the near future.” The statement noted that this could be adjusted depending on the “U.S. future attitude.”