Sudan’s Uncertain Transition

Summary

Sudan faces an inflection point as elements of deposed President Omar al Bashir’s regime struggle to maintain power in the face of a popular uprising and international pressure. Sudan has a long history of rebellion and resistance; mass protests in 1964 and 1985 against military regimes spurred coups that led to brief periods of civilian rule. The current social movement, however, is unprecedented for Sudan in its scope, bringing together professional and labor unions, community groups, civic activists and business leaders, opposition parties, and insurgents in a common call for change.

Bashir’s security chiefs, who seized power in April, appear divided on how to proceed: they allowed an initial opening of political space, pledging a transition to civilian government and negotiating with the opposition. But in early June, the Transitional Military Council (TMC) launched a violent crackdown on the pro-democracy movement, killing and arresting protesters, raiding hospitals, blocking the internet, and deploying paramilitary forces across Khartoum and other key cities. The rise within the TMC of a former Darfur militia leader, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemeti,” whom human rights groups have accused of war crimes, has drawn particular concern. Former U.S. envoy to Sudan Andrew Natsios has described the current moment as Sudan’s greatest political crisis since independence in 1956.

Developments in Sudan, a country described as a crossroads between Africa and the Arab world, can have implications beyond its borders. Some observers have asked whether Sudan’s uprising represents a new phase of the Arab Spring, with the potential to revive pro-democracy movements elsewhere. Protests in Algeria, sparked by an effort to extend the tenure of its aging leader, have occurred in tandem with Sudan’s, and by many accounts the protesters have learned lessons from previous uprisings, and from each other.

A transition that would bring an end to Sudan’s internal conflicts and allow for economic recovery could have positive impacts in neighboring countries, including South Sudan. A failed transition, however, could spur civil war or state collapse. Such a scenario could have devastating humanitarian consequences, spurring refugee flows and putting existing relief efforts at risk. (Sudan is already a top source of African migrant flows to Europe.) Further instability in Sudan could have spillover effects in surrounding states that rank high on fragility indexes. State collapse could also provide a haven for violent extremists. As a result, the stakes are high, not only for Sudanese, but for the region and the international community.