Proposed Rule2026-22588
Air Quality Implementation Plans; California; San Joaquin Valley; 2015 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area Requirements; and California Consumer Products Regulations
Primary source
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Published
November 5, 2026
Issuing agencies
Environmental Protection Agency
Abstract
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposes to approve State implementation plan (SIP) revisions submitted by the State of California to meet Clean Air Act (CAA or "Act") requirements for the 2015 8-hour ozone national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS or "standards") in the San Joaquin Valley ozone nonattainment area ("San Joaquin Valley" or "SJV"). In this document, the EPA refers to these submissions collectively as the "SJV 70 ppb Ozone SIP." The EPA proposes to approve the SJV 70 parts per billion (ppb) Ozone SIP as meeting the applicable ozone nonattainment area requirements for emissions inventories, reasonably available control measures, attainment demonstration, rate of progress and reasonable further progress, motor vehicle emissions budgets, and enhanced monitoring. The EPA is also initiating the adequacy process for the budgets included in this SIP submission through this proposed rule. The EPA also proposes to approve two SIP revisions amending the SIP to incorporate changes reflecting updates to California Air Resources Board (CARB) Consumer Products Regulations and Method 310, which apply statewide and upon which the SJV 70 ppb Ozone SIP relies. These regulations concern emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) from antiperspirants, deodorants, consumer products, and aerosol coating products, and Method 310 is used to determine the VOC and reactive organic compounds content of these products. The EPA proposes to approve these regulations for purposes of the State's SIP under the CAA.
Full Text
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[Federal Register Volume 91, Number 213 (Thursday, November 5, 2026)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 69910-69944]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [<a href="http://www.gpo.gov">www.gpo.gov</a>]
[FR Doc No: 2026-22588]
[[Page 69909]]
Vol. 91
Thursday,
No. 213
November 5, 2026
Part II
Environmental Protection Agency
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40 CFR Part 52
Air Quality Implementation Plans; California; San Joaquin Valley; 2015
8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area Requirements; and California Consumer
Products Regulations; Proposed Rule
Federal Register / Vol. 91, No. 213 / Thursday, November 5, 2026 /
Proposed Rules
[[Page 69910]]
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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
40 CFR Part 52
[EPA-R09-OAR-2026-8252; FRL-13635-01-R9]
Air Quality Implementation Plans; California; San Joaquin Valley;
2015 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area Requirements; and California
Consumer Products Regulations
AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
ACTION: Proposed rule.
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SUMMARY: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposes to
approve State implementation plan (SIP) revisions submitted by the
State of California to meet Clean Air Act (CAA or ``Act'') requirements
for the 2015 8-hour ozone national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS
or ``standards'') in the San Joaquin Valley ozone nonattainment area
(``San Joaquin Valley'' or ``SJV''). In this document, the EPA refers
to these submissions collectively as the ``SJV 70 ppb Ozone SIP.'' The
EPA proposes to approve the SJV 70 parts per billion (ppb) Ozone SIP as
meeting the applicable ozone nonattainment area requirements for
emissions inventories, reasonably available control measures,
attainment demonstration, rate of progress and reasonable further
progress, motor vehicle emissions budgets, and enhanced monitoring. The
EPA is also initiating the adequacy process for the budgets included in
this SIP submission through this proposed rule. The EPA also proposes
to approve two SIP revisions amending the SIP to incorporate changes
reflecting updates to California Air Resources Board (CARB) Consumer
Products Regulations and Method 310, which apply statewide and upon
which the SJV 70 ppb Ozone SIP relies. These regulations concern
emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) from antiperspirants,
deodorants, consumer products, and aerosol coating products, and Method
310 is used to determine the VOC and reactive organic compounds content
of these products. The EPA proposes to approve these regulations for
purposes of the State's SIP under the CAA.
DATES: Comments must be received on or before December 7, 2026.
ADDRESSES: Submit your comments, identified by Docket ID No. EPA-R09-
OAR-2026-8252 at <a href="https://www.regulations.gov">https://www.regulations.gov</a>. For comments submitted at
<a href="http://Regulations.gov">Regulations.gov</a>, follow the online instructions for submitting
comments. Once submitted, comments cannot be edited or removed from
<a href="http://Regulations.gov">Regulations.gov</a>. The EPA may publish any comment received to its public
docket. Do not submit electronically any information you consider to be
Confidential Business Information (CBI) or other information whose
disclosure is restricted by statute. Multimedia submissions (audio,
video, etc.) must be accompanied by a written comment. The written
comment is considered the official comment and should include
discussion of all points you wish to make. The EPA will generally not
consider comments or comment contents located outside of the primary
submission (i.e., on the web, cloud, or other file sharing system). For
additional submission methods, please contact the person identified in
the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section. For the full EPA public
comment policy, information about CBI or multimedia submissions, and
general guidance on making effective comments, please visit <a href="https://www.epa.gov/dockets/commenting-epa-dockets">https://www.epa.gov/dockets/commenting-epa-dockets</a>. If you need assistance in a
language other than English or if you are a person with disabilities
who needs a reasonable accommodation at no cost to you, please contact
the person identified in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: For information on the EPA's proposal
on the SJV 70 ppb Ozone SIP, contact Rory Mays, Planning and Analysis
Branch (AIR-2), EPA Region IX, 75 Hawthorne Street, San Francisco, CA
94105; telephone number: (415) 972-3227; email address:
<a href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#8be6eaf2f8a5f9e4f9f2cbeefbeaa5ece4fd"><span class="__cf_email__" data-cfemail="9ff2fee6ecb1edf0ede6dffaeffeb1f8f0e9">[email protected]</span></a>. For information on the EPA's proposal on CARB's
Consumer Products Regulations, contact La Kenya Evans-Hopper, Permits
and Rules Branch (AIR-3), EPA Region IX, 75 Hawthorne Street, San
Francisco, CA 94105; telephone number: (415) 972-3245; email address:
<a href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#294c5f48475a414659594c5b074548424c475048694c5948074e465f"><span class="__cf_email__" data-cfemail="a1c4d7c0cfd2c9ced1d1c4d38fcdc0cac4cfd8c0e1c4d1c08fc6ced7">[email protected]</span></a>.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Throughout this document, the use of ``we,''
``us,'' or ``our'' is intended to refer to the EPA. We use multiple
abbreviations and terms in this proposed rule. While this list may not
be exhaustive, for ease of reading and for reference purposes, the EPA
defines the following terms and abbreviations here:
2016 Ozone Plan--SJVUAPCD and CARB's ``2016 Plan for the 2008 8-Hour
Ozone Standard''
2016 State SIP Strategy--CARB's 2016 ``Revised Proposed State
Strategy for the State Implementation Plan''
2018 PM<INF>2.5</INF> Plan--SJVUAPCD and CARB's ``2018 Plan for the
1997, 2006, and 2012 PM<INF>2.5</INF> Standards''
2022 State SIP Strategy--CARB's ``2022 State Strategy for the State
Implementation Plan''
2023 CARB Staff Report--CARB's ``Review of the San Joaquin Valley
2022 Plan for the 70 ppb 8-Hour Ozone Standard''
2024 SJV Ozone Contingency Measures Plan--SJVUAPCD and CARB's 2024
``Ozone Contingency Measure State Implementation Plan Revision for
the 2008 and 2015 8-Hour Ozone Standards''
2025 ANP--SJVUAPCD's ``2025 Air Monitoring Network Plan''
2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision--CARB's ``2026 State Implementation
Plan Revisions for the California Extreme Ozone Nonattainment
Areas''
ACF--Advanced Clean Fleets
ACT--Advanced Clean Trucks
BACM--Best Available Control Measures
Budgets--Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets
CAA--Clean Air Act
CCR--California Code of Regulations
CARB--California Air Resources Board
CEPAM--California Emission Projection Analysis Model
CFFP--Clean Fuels for Fleets Program
CFR--Code of Federal Regulations
CMAQ--Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality
DPR--California Department of Pesticide Regulation
EMFAC--EMission FACtor
EPA--U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
EPA's District Rules and Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets TSD--EPA
Region IX, ``Technical Support Document, EPA Evaluation of District
Control Measures and Transportation Conformity Budgets for the San
Joaquin Valley 70 ppb Ozone SIP,'' October 2026
EPA's Modeling TSD--EPA Region IX, ``Technical Support Document, EPA
Review of Attainment Modeling in the San Joaquin Valley 2022 Ozone
Plan for the 2015 Ozone NAAQS,'' October 2026
ERCs--Emissions Reduction Credits
FHWA--Federal Highway Administration
FR--Federal Register
FSTIP--Federal State Transportation Improvement Program
FTA--Federal Transit Administration
General Preamble--the EPA's ``General Preamble for the
Implementation of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990''
HD I/M Regulation--Heavy-Duty Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance
Regulation
Heavy-Duty Warranty Phase 1--Heavy-Duty Warranty Regulations and
Maintenance Provisions
I/M--Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance
LDAR--Leak Detection and Repair
MIR--Maximum Incremental Reactivity
Modeling Guidance--the EPA's ``Modeling Guidance for Demonstrating
Air Quality Goals for Ozone, PM<INF>2.5</INF>, and Regional Haze''
MPO--Metropolitan Planning Organization
NAAQS--National Ambient Air Quality Standards
NEI--National Emissions Inventory
NO<INF>X</INF>--Oxides of Nitrogen
NSR--New Source Review
Omnibus Low NO<INF>X</INF> Program--Heavy-Duty Engine and Vehicle
Omnibus Regulation and Amendments
[[Page 69911]]
ORVR--Onboard Refueling Vapor Recovery
PAMS--Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Station
Ppm--Parts Per Million
Ppb--Parts Per Billion
PM<INF>2.5</INF>--Particulate Matter Less Than 2.5 [micro]m in
Diameter
RACM--Reasonably Available Control Measures
RACT--Reasonably Available Control Measures
RFP--Reasonable Further Progress
ROP--Rate of Progress
RRF--Relative Response Factor
RTP--Regional Transportation Plan
SIP--State Implementation Plan
SJV 2022 Ozone Plan--SJVUAPCD and CARB's ``2022 Plan for the 2015 8-
Hour Ozone Standard'' for the San Joaquin Valley
SJV 70 ppb Ozone SIP--the San Joaquin Valley attainment plan for the
2015 ozone NAAQS (collectively, all or portions of three SIP
submissions)
SJVUAPCD or ``District''--San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution
Control District
SRR--SIP Requirements Rule
SORE--Small Off-Road Engines
Stage II--Gasoline dispensing systems for vehicle refueling vapor
recovery
TCM--Transportation Control Measure
TSD--Technical Support Document
VOC--Volatile Organic Compounds
VMT--Vehicle Miles Traveled
WRF--Weather Research and Forecasting
Table of Contents
I. Overview of Proposed Action
A. What action is the EPA taking?
B. What is the legal authority and what are the requirements?
II. EPA Review of the SJV 70 ppb Ozone SIP
A. Background
B. Summary of the State's Submissions for the 2015 Ozone NAAQS
in San Joaquin Valley
C. Emissions Inventories
D. Reasonably Available Control Measures Demonstration
E. Attainment Demonstration
F. Rate of Progress Plan and Reasonable Further Progress
Demonstration
G. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for Transportation Conformity
H. Other Clean Air Act Requirements Applicable to Extreme Ozone
Nonattainment Areas
III. EPA Review of CARB's Consumer Products Regulations
A. Background
B. Summary of the State's Submissions for the Consumer Products
Regulations
C. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
IV. Proposed Action and Public Comment
V. Incorporation by Reference
VI. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
I. Overview of Proposed Action
A. What action is the EPA taking?
The EPA is proposing to approve certain submitted revisions to the
San Joaquin Valley portion of the California SIP for the 2015 ozone
NAAQS. We refer to these revisions as the SJV 70 ppb Ozone SIP, and
they address the ``Extreme'' ozone nonattainment area requirements for
emissions inventories, reasonably available control measures (RACM),
attainment demonstration (including aggregate emission reduction
commitments and CAA section 182(e)(5) new technology provisions), rate
of progress (ROP) and reasonable further progress (RFP), motor vehicle
emissions budgets (``budgets''), and enhanced monitoring. In addition,
the EPA is initiating the adequacy review process for the budgets for
VOC and NO<INF>X</INF> for the 2026, 2029, 2032, and 2035 RFP milestone
years and the 2037 attainment year included in the SJV 70 ppb Ozone
SIP. For the attainment demonstration, the EPA proposes to approve
CARB's aggregate emission reduction commitments for 2037 and CARB's
commitment to submit contingency measures by January 1, 2034, to cover
any anticipated shortfall in emission reductions to be achieved by the
plan's CAA section 182(e)(5) new technology provisions. If the EPA
finalizes this proposed action, CARB's aggregate emission reduction
commitments and CAA section 182(e)(5) contingency measure commitments
would become federally enforceable and transportation conformity
demonstrations in the San Joaquin Valley would be required to conform
to the regional (whole nonattainment area) motor vehicle emissions
budgets for VOC and NO<INF>X</INF> for the 2026, 2029, 2032, and 2035
RFP milestone years and the 2037 attainment year.
The EPA is also proposing to approve amendments to the SIP to
incorporate changes to California's consumer products regulations and
CARB Method 310, which apply statewide. Specifically, the 2021
amendments to CARB's Consumer Products Regulations concern VOC
emissions from antiperspirants, deodorants, consumer products, and
aerosol coating products, and the 2022 amendments to CARB Method 310
are used to determine the VOC and reactive organic compounds content of
these products. If the EPA finalizes this proposed action, the amended
Consumer Products Regulations and amended Method 310 would be federally
enforceable within the State of California.
We will accept comments from the public for 30 days following
publication of this proposal in the Federal Register and will consider
relevant comments before taking final action.
B. What is the legal authority and what are the requirements?
The EPA has legal authority to approve, disapprove, or
conditionally approve, in whole or in part, submissions of SIPs and SIP
revisions under CAA section 110(k). The applicable requirements for the
actions proposed by the EPA in this document include those for SIP
submissions in general, ozone nonattainment areas, motor vehicle
emissions budgets, and enforceable emission limitations.
For SIP submissions in general, CAA sections 110(a)(1) and (2) and
40 CFR 51.102 establish certain procedural requirements with respect to
States for adoption and submittal of SIPs and SIP revisions to the EPA
to meet CAA requirements. CAA section 110(l) prohibits the EPA from
approving SIP revisions that would interfere with any applicable
requirements concerning attainment and RFP or any other applicable
requirement of the Act.
For SIP submissions addressing ozone nonattainment SIP
requirements, the statutory requirements are set forth in CAA sections
171 through 179B of subpart 1 (``Nonattainment Areas in General'') and
CAA sections 181 through 185 of subpart 2 (``Additional Provisions for
Ozone Nonattainment Areas'') and the regulatory requirements for the
2015 ozone NAAQS are codified in 40 CFR part 51, subpart CC
(``Provisions for Implementation of the 2015 Ozone [NAAQS]''). In this
document, we refer to these regulatory requirements and related
preamble collectively as the 2015 ozone NAAQS SIP Requirements Rule
(``2015 Ozone SRR'').\1\ For budgets, the regulatory requirements are
codified in 40 CFR 93.118(e) (``Motor vehicle emissions budgets in
submitted control strategy State implementation plan revisions and
submitted maintenance plans''). More specifically, the budget adequacy
criteria are codified in 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4). For more detail on these
requirements, as well as background on the EPA's review of the SJV 70
ppb Ozone SIP, see the applicable subsections of section II of this
document for emissions inventories, RACM, attainment demonstration, ROP
and RFP, motor vehicle emissions budgets, and other requirements.
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\1\ 83 FR 62998 (Dec. 6, 2018).
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For SIP submissions related to consumer products and aerosol
coatings regulations, the applicable requirements are found in CAA
sections 110(a)(2) (``Each such plan shall (A) include enforceable
emission limitations . . . (E) provide necessary assurances that
[[Page 69912]]
the State . . . will have adequate personnel, resources and authority .
. .'') and 110(l). In addition, 40 CFR part 51, subpart K (``Source
Surveillance'') requires SIPs to have enforceable procedures for
monitoring the status of compliance with the requirements in the
control strategy. For more detail on these requirements, as well as
background on the EPA's review of CARB's Consumer Products Regulations,
see section III of this document.
II. EPA Review of the SJV 70 ppb Ozone SIP
A. Background
1. Ozone Standards, Area Designations, and SIPs
Ground-level ozone pollution is formed from the reaction of VOC and
oxides of nitrogen (NO<INF>X</INF>) in the presence of sunlight.\2\
These pollutants, referred to as ozone precursors, are emitted by many
types of sources, including on- and off-road motor vehicles and
engines, power plants and industrial facilities, and area sources such
as residential fuel combustion and farming operations.
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\2\ The State of California refers to reactive organic gases
(ROG) in some of its ozone-related SIP submissions. As a practical
matter, ROG and VOC refer to the same set of chemical constituents,
and for the sake of simplicity, we refer to this set of gases as VOC
in this proposed rule.
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Under CAA sections 108 and 109, the EPA promulgates air quality
criteria and NAAQS for pervasive air pollutants meeting certain
requirements, such as ozone, to protect public health and welfare.
Under CAA section 110, following promulgation of a new or revised
NAAQS, States are required to adopt and submit plans that provide for
implementation, maintenance, and enforcement of the NAAQS (referred to
as State Implementation Plans or SIPs). Under CAA section 107(d), the
EPA is required to designate areas throughout the nation as either
attaining or not attaining the NAAQS, or as unclassifiable. States with
designated nonattainment areas are required to submit SIP revisions to,
among other things, provide for attainment within the applicable
statutory timeline.
In 1979, the EPA established primary and secondary NAAQS for ozone
at 0.12 parts per million (ppm) averaged over a 1-hour period (``1979
ozone NAAQS'').\3\ In 1997, the EPA revised the primary and secondary
standards for ozone in the ambient air to 0.08 ppm averaged over an 8-
hour period (``1997 ozone NAAQS'').\4\
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\3\ 44 FR 8202 (Feb. 8, 1979).
\4\ 62 FR 38856 (July 18, 1997).
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In 2008, the EPA lowered the 8-hour ozone NAAQS to 0.075 ppm
(``2008 ozone NAAQS'').\5\ Then in 2015, the EPA further lowered the 8-
hour ozone NAAQS to 0.070 ppm (``2015 ozone NAAQS'').\6\ On December
31, 2020, the EPA finalized its most recent periodic review of the
ozone NAAQS, retaining the form and level of the standards.\7\ The EPA
has revoked both the 1979 ozone NAAQS and the 1997 ozone NAAQS but not
the 2008 ozone NAAQS.\8\
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\5\ 73 FR 16436 (Mar. 27, 2008).
\6\ 80 FR 65292 (Oct. 26, 2015); 40 CFR 50.19. In terms of parts
per billion (ppb), the level of the 2015 ozone NAAQS is 70 ppb.
\7\ 85 FR 87256 (Dec. 31, 2020). The SIP revision that is the
subject of this document relates to the requirements for the 2015
ozone standards.
\8\ 40 CFR 50.9(b) and 40 CFR 50.10(c).
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In 2018, the EPA designated San Joaquin Valley as nonattainment for
the 2015 ozone NAAQS and classified the area as Extreme.\9\ The
attainment date for areas classified as Extreme for the 2015 ozone
NAAQS is as expeditiously as practicable but not later than 20 years
from the effective date of the nonattainment designation.\10\
Designations of nonattainment for a given NAAQS trigger requirements
under the CAA to prepare and submit SIP revisions. The State of
California submitted the SIP revisions that comprise the SJV 70 ppb
Ozone SIP and that are the subject of this document to address the
Extreme nonattainment area requirements that apply to the San Joaquin
Valley for the 2015 ozone NAAQS.
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\9\ 83 FR 25776, 25790 (June 4, 2018), effective Aug. 3, 2018.
\10\ CAA section 181(a)(1); 40 CFR 51.1302 and 51.1303(a).
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Under California law, CARB is the State agency that is responsible
for the adoption and submission to the EPA of California SIP revisions,
and it has state-law authority to establish emissions standards and
other requirements for mobile sources and certain area sources, such as
consumer products. Local and regional air pollution control districts
in California are responsible for the regulation of stationary sources
and are generally responsible for the development of regional air
quality management plans (``plans''). In the San Joaquin Valley, the
San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District (SJVUAPCD or
``District'') develops and adopts plans to address CAA planning
requirements applicable to that area. Such plans are then submitted to
CARB for adoption and submission to the EPA as revisions to the
California SIP.
Under CAA section 110(k), the EPA is charged with evaluation of
each SIP revision submitted by States for compliance with applicable
CAA requirements and with taking action on each submission. The EPA
evaluates SIP submissions and takes action to approve or disapprove
them through notice-and-comment rulemaking, including proposed and
final rules published in the Federal Register. Where appropriate, the
EPA may act on separate portions of a SIP submission in separate
rulemaking actions.
2. The San Joaquin Valley Ozone Nonattainment Area
The San Joaquin Valley nonattainment area for the 2015 ozone
standards consists of San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, Madera, Fresno,
Tulare, and Kings counties and the western portion of Kern County. The
San Joaquin Valley nonattainment area stretches over 250 miles from
north to south, averages a width of 80 miles, and encompasses over
23,000 square miles. It is partially enclosed by the Coast Mountain
range to the west, the Tehachapi Mountains to the south, and the Sierra
Nevada range to the east.\11\ The population of the San Joaquin Valley
in 2020 was estimated to be more than 4.4 million people and is
projected to increase to nearly 5 million people by 2035.\12\
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\11\ For a precise definition of the boundaries of the San
Joaquin Valley nonattainment area for the 2015 ozone NAAQS, see 40
CFR 81.305.
\12\ The population estimates and projections include all of
Kern County, not just the portion of Kern County within the San
Joaquin Valley air basin. See chapter 2 and Table 2-1 of the SJV
2022 Ozone Plan.
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B. Summary of the State's Submissions for the 2015 Ozone NAAQS in San
Joaquin Valley
In this document, the EPA proposes action on all or portions of
three SIP submissions, which we describe in the following paragraphs.
Collectively, we refer to the relevant portions of the three SIP
submissions as the SJV 70 ppb Ozone SIP.
1. SJV 2022 Ozone Plan
On February 23, 2023, CARB submitted the ``2022 Plan for the 2015
8-Hour Ozone Standard'' (``SJV 2022 Ozone Plan'') to the EPA as a
revision to the California SIP.\13\ The SIP revision includes the SJV
2022 Ozone Plan main document and appendices and CARB's aggregate
emissions reduction commitment specified in CARB's Staff
[[Page 69913]]
Report titled ``CARB Review of the San Joaquin Valley 2022 Plan for the
70 ppb 8-Hour Ozone Standard (Hearing Date: January 26, 2023)'' (``2023
CARB Staff Report'').\14\
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\13\ CARB submitted the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan to the EPA
electronically on February 23, 2023, as an attachment to a letter
dated February 22, 2023, from Steven S. Cliff, Ph.D., Executive
Officer, CARB, to Martha Guzman, Regional Administrator, EPA Region
IX.
\14\ CARB's aggregate emission reduction commitment for San
Joaquin Valley is described in section IV.B.2.d of the 2023 CARB
Staff Report.
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In addition to the SIP revision, the February 23, 2023 SIP
submission includes SJVUAPCD Resolution 22-12-13 (December 15, 2022),
through which the District adopted the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, and CARB
Resolution 23-3 (January 26, 2023), through which CARB adopted the SJV
2022 Ozone Plan and its original aggregate emissions reduction
commitment (including a subset from on-road mobile source measures for
transportation conformity purposes) in support of the attainment
demonstration in the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan. The February 23, 2023 SIP
submission of the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan also included public process
documentation at both the District and CARB levels.
The SJV 2022 Ozone Plan addresses certain nonattainment area SIP
requirements for San Joaquin Valley for the 2015 ozone NAAQS. More
specifically, the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan includes, among other elements,
an updated base year (2017) emissions inventory, RACM demonstration,
RFP demonstration, attainment demonstration, motor vehicle emissions
budgets for RFP milestone years and the attainment year, and enhanced
monitoring. The appendices to the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan provide
documentation for the emissions inventories, RACM demonstrations for
stationary and mobile sources, and the photochemical modeling conducted
in support of the attainment demonstration.
The attainment demonstration in the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan relies on
the 2022 State SIP Strategy and the aggregate emissions reductions
commitment by CARB. We further describe the 2022 State SIP Strategy in
section II.B.2 of this document. Also, since the submission of the SJV
2022 Ozone Plan, the District and CARB have replaced or updated certain
elements of the plan, including the future year emissions inventories,
attainment control strategy and associated commitments, the RFP
demonstration, the motor vehicle emissions budgets, and the contingency
measure elements, as discussed further below.
2. 2022 State SIP Strategy
On February 23, 2023, CARB submitted the ``2022 State Strategy for
the State Implementation Plan'' (``2022 State SIP Strategy'') to the
EPA as a revision to the California SIP.\15\ The SIP revision for the
2022 State SIP Strategy includes the main document itself plus CARB's
resolution of adoption of the 2022 State SIP Strategy (CARB Resolution
22-14). Considered together, the 2022 State SIP Strategy and CARB
Resolution 22-14 originally committed the State of California to pursue
19 new SIP measures or otherwise address each measure as described in
the 2022 State SIP Strategy by the dates specified in an attachment to
CARB Resolution 22-14.\16\ The overall 2022 State SIP Strategy combines
the commitment to pursue certain new SIP measures on a specified
schedule with an aggregate emissions reduction commitment for
individual nonattainment areas made at the time CARB adopted attainment
plans for the individual areas. In the case of the San Joaquin Valley
for the 2015 ozone NAAQS, CARB's original aggregate emissions
reductions commitment was made through CARB Resolution 23-3 adopting
the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan.
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\15\ CARB submitted the 2022 State SIP Strategy to the EPA
electronically on February 23, 2023, as an attachment to a letter
dated February 22, 2023, from Steven S. Cliff, Ph.D., Executive
Officer, CARB, to Martha Guzman, Regional Administrator, EPA Region
IX.
\16\ The action dates specified in Attachment A to CARB
Resolution 22-14 vary among the measures but range from 2021 through
2029. Implementation dates range from 2023 through 2031.
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3. 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision
On September 23, 2026, CARB submitted the ``2026 State
Implementation Plan Revisions for the California Extreme Ozone
Nonattainment Areas'' (``2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision'') to the EPA
as a revision to the California SIP.\17\ CARB adopted the 2026 Extreme
Ozone SIP Revision on July 23, 2026. The 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP
Revision includes revisions to the future year emissions inventories,
attainment demonstration and associated commitments, RFP demonstration,
and motor vehicle emissions budgets in the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan. The
budgets in the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan were derived from EMFAC2017 and the
budgets in the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision are intended to update
the EMFAC2017-derived budgets with revised budgets derived from the
most recent EPA-approved motor vehicle emissions model for California,
i.e., EMFAC2021, with off-model adjustment factors accounting for
Congress' enactment of statutes disapproving the waivers of preemption
previously issued by the EPA for certain CARB mobile source regulations
\18\ and adjustment factors accounting for the EPA's partial approval
and partial disapproval of CARB's Heavy-Duty Vehicle Inspection and
Maintenance Regulation (``HD I/M Regulation'').\19\ The 2026 Extreme
Ozone SIP Revision also includes revisions to the 2022 State SIP
Strategy and revisions to the control strategy and RFP demonstration
from the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan to reflect the updated budgets. The 2026
Extreme Ozone SIP Revision includes revisions for other nonattainment
area plans, but in this document, we propose action only on the 2026
Extreme Ozone SIP Revision as it pertains to the San Joaquin Valley for
the 2015 ozone NAAQS.
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\17\ CARB submitted the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision to the
EPA electronically on September 23, 2026, as an attachment to a
letter dated September 23, 2026, from Steven S. Cliff, Ph.D.,
Executive Officer, CARB, to Michael Martucci, Acting Regional
Administrator, EPA Region IX.
\18\ H.J. Res. 87, Public Law 119-15, 139 Stat. 65 (2025) (for
ACT, Heavy-Duty Warranty Phase 1, Zero-Emission Airport Shuttle
Regulation, and Zero-Emission Powertrain Certification); and H.J.
Res. 89, Public Law 119-17, 139 Stat. 67 (2025) (for Omnibus Low
NO<INF>X</INF> Program). See also, letter dated November 21, 2025,
from Anita Lee, Acting Director, Air and Radiation Division, EPA
Region IX, to Edie Chang, Deputy Executive Officer, CARB (approving
EMFAC2021 off-model adjustment factors to remove emission reductions
from regulations whose waivers were disapproved by H.J. Res. 87 and
H.J. Res. 89).
\19\ 91 FR 5325 (Feb. 6, 2026) (EPA partial approval and partial
disapproval of the HD I/M Regulation). See also letter dated May 6,
2026, from Anita Lee, Acting Director, Air and Radiation Division,
EPA Region IX, to Matt Lakin, Division Chief, Air Quality Planning
and Science Division, CARB (approving EMFAC2021 off-model adjustment
factors to incorporate emissions reductions from implementation of
the HD I/M Regulation with respect to vehicles registered in-state
but not vehicles registered out of state).
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4. Clean Air Act Procedural Requirements for Adoption and Submission of
SIP Revisions
CAA sections 110(a) and 110(l) require a State to provide
reasonable public notice and opportunity for public hearing prior to
the adoption and submission of a SIP or SIP revision. To meet this
requirement, every covered SIP submission should include evidence that
adequate public notice was given and an opportunity to submit written
comments and request a public hearing was provided consistent with the
EPA's implementing regulations in 40 CFR 51.102.
Both the District and CARB have satisfied the applicable statutory
and regulatory requirements for reasonable public notice and hearing
prior to the adoption and submission of the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, the
2022 State SIP Strategy, and the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision. With
respect to the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, the District conducted
[[Page 69914]]
six public workshops on the draft SJV 2022 Ozone Plan.\20\ On November
15, 2022, the District provided notice of an opportunity to submit
written comments and notice of a public hearing to be held on December
15, 2022, for the adoption of the proposed SJV 2022 Ozone Plan. On
December 15, 2022, the District held the public hearing, and, through
Resolution 22-12-13, adopted the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan.
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\20\ SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, Executive Summary, page ES-7 and
chapter 1, page 1-11.
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CARB also provided the public notice and opportunity for public
comment on the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan. On December 16, 2022, CARB released
for public review and comment the 2023 CARB Staff Report and published
a notice of public meeting to be held on January 26, 2023, to consider
approval of the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan and the related aggregate emissions
reduction commitment as described in the 2023 CARB Staff Report. On
January 26, 2023, CARB held the hearing and approved the SJV 2022 Ozone
Plan and 2023 CARB Staff Report through CARB Resolution 23-3. On
February 23, 2023, the Executive Officer of CARB submitted the SJV 2022
Ozone Plan and 2023 CARB Staff Report to the EPA as a revision of the
California SIP and included the transcript of the public hearing.
With respect to the 2022 State SIP Strategy, CARB conducted three
public workshops on the Draft 2022 State SIP Strategy.\21\ On August
12, 2022, CARB circulated for public review and comment the proposed
2022 State SIP Strategy and provided notice of a public hearing by the
CARB Board to be held on September 22, 2022. On September 22, 2022,
through Resolution 22-14, CARB adopted the 2022 State SIP Strategy and
the commitment to pursue new SIP measures or otherwise address each
measure as described in the 2022 State SIP Strategy by the dates
specified in Attachment A to Resolution 22-14. On February 23, 2023,
CARB submitted the 2022 State SIP Strategy to the EPA as a revision to
the California SIP and included the transcript of the public hearing.
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\21\ 2022 State SIP Strategy, page 9.
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With respect to 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision, on April 17, 2026,
CARB provided notice of opportunity to submit written comments and
notice of a public hearing to be held on May 28, 2026, for adoption of
the proposed 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision. On May 18, 2026, CARB
posted errata to correct transcription errors in the 2026 Extreme Ozone
SIP Revision, and on May 27, 2026, and June 12, 2026, CARB rescheduled
the public hearing to July 23, 2026, and extended the comment period to
July 13, 2026. CARB held the public hearing and adopted the 2026
Extreme Ozone SIP Revision, through Resolution 26-5, on July 23, 2026.
On September 23, 2026, CARB submitted the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP
Revision to the EPA as a revision of the California SIP and included
the transcript of the public hearing.
Based on information provided in each SIP revision and summarized
herein, the EPA has determined that CARB and the District provided for
the required opportunities for public participation in the development
and adoption of the SIP revisions that comprise the SJV 70 ppb Ozone
SIP. Therefore, we propose to find that the submissions that comprise
the SJV 70 ppb Ozone SIP (i.e., the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, the 2022 State
SIP Strategy, and the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision) meet the
procedural requirements for public notice and hearing in CAA sections
110(a) and 110(l) and 40 CFR 51.102.
C. Emissions Inventories
1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
CAA sections 172(c)(3) and 182(a)(1) require States to submit for
each ozone nonattainment area a ``base year inventory'' that is a
comprehensive, accurate, current inventory of actual emissions from all
sources of the relevant pollutant or pollutants in the area. Emissions
inventories for ozone must include emissions of VOC and NO<INF>X</INF>
and represent emissions for a typical ozone season weekday.\22\ States
should include documentation explaining how the emissions data were
calculated. In estimating mobile source emissions, States should use
the latest emissions models and planning assumptions available at the
time the SIP is developed.\23\
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\22\ 40 CFR 51.1315(a) and (c), and 40 CFR 51.1300(p) and (q).
\23\ 83 FR 62998, 63022 (Dec. 6, 2018).
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Future year projected emissions inventories must reflect the most
recent population, employment, travel, and congestion estimates for the
area. Projected inventories will reflect the net effect of emissions
resulting from anticipated changes in future activity (such as
emissions increases due to growth in vehicle miles traveled (VMT));
emission decreases due to implementation of existing requirements for
stationary source and car/truck emissions; and the effects of new
control measures needed to reduce emissions and bring nonattainment
areas and States into compliance with a particular SIP requirement.\24\
Both the base year and future year inventories are necessary for the
RFP demonstration and photochemical modeling to demonstrate attainment.
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\24\ EPA, ``Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of
Ozone and Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards
(NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulations,'' EPA-454/B-17-002, May 2017,
page 48.
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On July 27, 2020, CARB submitted the base year (2017) emissions
inventories for certain nonattainment areas, including San Joaquin
Valley, for the 2015 ozone NAAQS. In 2022, the EPA approved the base
year emissions inventory for San Joaquin Valley for the 2015 ozone
NAAQS as meeting the requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(3) and
182(a)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1315.\25\
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\25\ 87 FR 59015 (Sep. 29, 2022).
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2. Summary of the State's Submission
The SJV 2022 Ozone Plan includes an updated emissions inventory for
the base year (2017) and emissions projections for calendar years 2022
through the 2037 attainment year.\26\ The updated base year and future
year projected emissions inventories in the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan are
presented in terms of average ozone season tons per day (tpd). With
respect to the base year emissions inventories, the differences between
the approved base year emissions inventory and the updated base year
emissions inventory in the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan primarily relate to the
emissions estimates for trains, recreational boats, and off-road
equipment.\27\
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\26\ SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, Appendix B.
\27\ The approved base year emissions inventory for San Joaquin
Valley is 220.2 tpd for NO<INF>X</INF> and 307.85 tpd for VOC. In
comparison, the updated base year emissions inventory for San
Joaquin Valley in the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan is 232.4 tpd for
NO<INF>X</INF> and 325.7 tpd for VOC. Both the approved base year
emissions inventory for the San Joaquin Valley and the updated base
year emissions inventory in the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan reflect
anthropogenic emissions only.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Documentation for the inventories is found in Appendix B of the SJV
2022 Ozone Plan. Because ozone levels in the area are typically highest
during the summer months, the inventories represent average summer day
emissions from May through October. The inventories in Appendix B
reflect District and CARB rules adopted through the end of calendar
year 2021. The future year emissions inventories documented in Appendix
B of the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan are referred to as ``baseline'' future
year emissions inventories to distinguish them from other future year
emissions inventories.
[[Page 69915]]
Baseline future year emissions inventories correspond to the
anthropogenic emissions sources within the nonattainment area, reflect
regulations adopted by the time of plan development, and are used for
the RFP demonstration. The SJV 2022 Ozone Plan also includes other
future year emissions inventories, including the modeled attainment
emissions inventory for the nonattainment area, which is similar to the
baseline future year emissions inventory except that it also reflects
emissions reductions that the State has committed to achieve. The
emissions inventories developed for modeling purposes are similar to
the other emissions inventories, but they include nonanthropogenic
emissions sources and cover a geographic area larger than the
nonattainment area.
The VOC and NO<INF>X</INF> emissions estimates are grouped into two
general categories, stationary sources and mobile sources. Stationary
sources are further divided into ``point'' and ``area'' sources. Point
sources typically refer to stationary sources that are permitted
facilities and have one or more identified and fixed pieces of
equipment and emissions points. Area sources consist of widespread and
numerous smaller emissions sources, such as residential fuel
combustion, managed burning and disposal, farming operations, consumer
products, pesticides, and architectural coatings.\28\ Mobile sources
are divided into two major subcategories, ``on-road'' and ``off-road''
mobile sources. On-road mobile sources include, among other vehicle
classifications, light-duty automobiles; light-, medium-, and heavy-
duty trucks; and motorcycles. Off-road mobile sources include farm
equipment, off-road equipment (such as construction equipment),
locomotives, portable equipment, recreational boats, aircraft, fuel
storage and handling, and recreational vehicles.
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\28\ SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, Appendix B, Table B-1 and Table B-2.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Emissions from point sources (also referred to as ``stationary
sources'') for the 2017 base year emissions inventory are calculated
using data from facilities using the District's annual emissions
reporting program. Under this program, the District requests annual
emissions inventories from all permitted sources in the San Joaquin
Valley. The District sends each permitted facility an inventory
statement or inventory survey form. An emissions inventory statement is
required for those facilities that have actual annual emissions of
greater than or equal to 25 tons of VOC or NO<INF>X</INF> and an
emissions inventory survey form is required for sources that have
potential annual emissions less than 25 tons.\29\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\29\ SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, Appendix B, pages B-14 to B-15.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stationary point sources also include smaller point sources, such
as gasoline dispensing facilities, that are not inventoried
individually but are estimated as a group and reported as a single
source category. Emissions from these sources are estimated using
various models and methodologies.\30\ Area sources include smaller
emissions sources distributed across the nonattainment area. CARB and
the District estimate emissions for numerous area source categories
using established inventory methods, including publicly available
emissions factors and activity information.\31\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\30\ SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, Appendix B, pages B-27 to B-32.
Category-specific models and methodologies for smaller point sources
were used for stationary non-agricultural diesel engines,
agricultural diesel irrigation pumps, wine fermentation and aging,
laundering, degreasing, coatings and thinners, adhesives and
sealants, gasoline dispensing facilities, gasoline cargo tanks,
marine petroleum loading and unloading, and oil and gas production.
\31\ SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, Appendix B, pages B-32 to B-35.
Category-specific models and methodologies developed by CARB for
area sources include those for consumer products and aerosol
coatings, architectural coatings, pesticides, residential wood
combustion, residential natural gas combustion, residential
distillate oil and liquefied petroleum gas, farming operations, and
fires.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
On-road emissions inventories in the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan are
calculated using CARB's EMFAC2017 model, the EPA-approved version of
California's motor vehicle emissions model available at the time of
plan development,\32\ and the travel activity data (VMT and speed
distributions) provided by the eight county-based metropolitan planning
organizations (MPOs) in the San Joaquin Valley from their 2019 Federal
Statewide Transportation Improvement Program (FSTIP) amendments.\33\
Off-road emissions inventories are estimated using specific models for
several source categories and OFFROAD2007 for all other source
categories.\34\
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\32\ EMFAC is short for EMission FACtor. The EPA announced the
availability of the EMFAC2017 model for use in State implementation
plan development and transportation conformity in California on
August 15, 2019. 84 FR 41717 (Aug. 15, 2019). The EPA's approval of
the EMFAC2017 emissions model for SIP and conformity purposes was
effective on the date of publication of the notice in the Federal
Register.
\33\ SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, Appendix B, page B-18 and Appendix D,
page D-32.
\34\ SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, Appendix B, pages B-21 to B-27.
Category-specific emissions models were used for recreational marine
vessels, recreational vehicles, fuel storage and handling, small
off-road engines, ocean-going vessels, commercial harbor craft,
locomotives (including models for military and industrial
locomotives), diesel agricultural equipment, in-use off-road
equipment, cargo handling equipment, transportation refrigeration
units, portable equipment, large spark ignition equipment (e.g.,
forklifts), and forestry equipment.
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CARB used the California Emission Projection Analysis Model
(CEPAM), 2019 SIP Baseline Emission Projections, Version 1.04
(``CEPAM2019 version 1.04'') to develop future year emissions forecasts
(i.e., RFP milestone years of 2023, 2026, 2029, 2032, and 2035, and
attainment year of 2037). In doing so, CARB and the District reviewed
the inventory for accuracy of point source emissions reports, use of
the most recently approved models and methodologies for mobile and area
sources, and growth and control profiles for point source and area
source categories, and updated them to reflect trends, current
conditions, and recent economic and demographic forecasts.\35\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\35\ SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, Appendix B, pages B-15 to B-17.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
With respect to on-road mobile sources, CEPAM2019 version 1.04
incorporated output from EMFAC2017 but also included emissions
reductions attributable to certain CARB regulations adopted after
development of EMFAC2017 but before submission of the SJV 2022 Ozone
Plan. These regulations originally included California's Advanced Clean
Trucks (ACT) Regulation, Heavy-Duty Vehicle and Engine Emission
Warranty and Maintenance Provisions (``Heavy-Duty Warranty Phase 1''),
Zero-Emission Airport Shuttle Regulation, Heavy-Duty Engine and Vehicle
Omnibus Regulation and Amendments (``Omnibus Low NO<INF>X</INF>
Program''), and CARB's HD I/M Regulation (also referred to as
California's ``Clean Truck Check'' program).
In the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision, CARB revised the on-road
emissions inventories from the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan to reflect
developments that occurred since adoption of the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan.
Specifically, CARB developed a revised version of CEPAM2019 version
1.04 that takes into account Congress' enactment of statutes
disapproving the waivers of preemption previously issued by the EPA for
California's ACT Regulation, Heavy-Duty Warranty Phase 1,\36\ Zero-
Emission Airport Shuttle Regulation, and Omnibus Low NO<INF>X</INF>
Program \37\ by
[[Page 69916]]
removing the emissions reductions attributable to those
regulations.\38\ CARB also revised CEPAM2019 version 1.04 to reflect
the EPA's partial disapproval of California's HD I/M Regulation by
removing the emissions reductions attributable to implementation of the
program to vehicles registered out-of-state and out-of-country (``out-
of-state vehicles'').
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\36\ The public law disapproving the waiver of preemption
previously issued by the EPA for Heavy-Duty Warranty Phase 1, i.e.,
H.J. Res. No. 87, Public Law 119-15, 139 Stat. 65 (2025), refers to
the ``Heavy-Duty Vehicle and Engine Emission Warranty and
Maintenance Provisions.'' The two terms refer to the same set of
regulations and amendments.
\37\ The public law disapproving the waiver of preemption
previously issued by the EPA for the Omnibus Low NO<INF>X</INF>
Program, i.e., H.J. Res. No. 89, Public Law 119-17, 139 Stat. 67
(2025), refers to the ``The `Omnibus' Low NO<INF>X</INF>
Regulation.'' The two terms refer to the same set of regulations and
amendments.
\38\ 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision, pages 40 through 41. We
note that one of these statutes included disapproval of the waiver
for the Zero-Emission Powertrain Certification Regulation, which
supported the implementation of other truck regulations but did not,
in itself, achieve emission reductions. See Public Law 119-15, 139
Stat. 65 (2025). Therefore, there were no emission reductions to
remove from the baseline emission reductions with respect to this
measure.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision did not revise the base year
(2017) emissions inventory or the future year emissions projections
prepared for the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan for the other major source
categories, including stationary and area-wide sources and off-road
(nonroad) vehicles and equipment.
The calendar year 2017 is the base year in the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan
because 2017 was the most recent calendar year for which a complete
triennial inventory was required to be submitted to the EPA under the
provisions of 40 CFR part 51, subpart A, at the time of plan
development. The 2017 base year inventory was used to forecast all
future year emissions for stationary, area, and mobile sources.\39\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\39\ SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, Appendix B, pages B-16 to B-17.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The future year emission estimates in the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan
include additional, specific adjustments to account for pre-base year
emissions reduction credits (ERCs). Under the EPA's SIP regulations for
nonattainment new source review (NSR) programs, a State may allow new
major stationary sources or major modifications to use as offsets ERCs
that were generated through shutdown or curtailed emissions units
occurring before the base year of an attainment plan. However, to use
such ERCs, the projected emissions inventories used to develop the RFP
and attainment demonstration must explicitly include the emissions from
such previously shutdown or curtailed emissions units.\40\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\40\ 40 CFR part 51, Appendix S, section IV.C.5.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The District has elected to provide for use of pre-base year ERCs
as offsets through an evaluation of the amount of such offsets expected
to be used through 2037 relative to the general growth in emissions for
the relevant stationary source categories that is included in future
year emissions inventories developed using CEPAM.\41\ With respect to
VOC, the District expects that general VOC growth included in CEPAM is
sufficient to account for the magnitude of pre-baseline VOC ERC usage
that is forecasted to be used through 2037. As for NO<INF>X</INF>, the
District concludes that the general NO<INF>X</INF> growth included in
CEPAM is not sufficient to account for the magnitude of pre-baseline
NO<INF>X</INF> ERC usage that is expected to be used through 2037. As
such, the District added an additional pre-baseline NO<INF>X</INF> ERC
usage tonnage of 2.43 tpd to the plan by factoring the additional
tonnage into the RFP and attainment demonstrations.<SUP>42 43</SUP>
Moreover, the District has adopted a cap on the amount of pre-baseline
ERCs that can be used through 2037 to assure that the use of pre-
baseline ERCs does not interfere with RFP or attainment.\44\
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\41\ For the District's analysis and tables of ERCs, see SJV
2022 Ozone Plan, Appendix I (``Emission Reduction Credits'').
\42\ SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, Table 6-1, page 6-3, Appendix G, page
G-35 and Appendix F, page F-14; and 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision,
Table 15, page 42.
\43\ For an explanation for how the additional tonnage of 2.43
tpd of NO<INF>X</INF> was incorporated into the attainment
demonstration, see email dated Sep. 18, 2026, from Ariel Fideldy,
Chief, Air Quality Planning Branch, CARB to Rory Mays, EPA Region
IX.
\44\ SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, Appendix I, page I-4. The caps are
9.60 tpd for VOC and 3.40 tpd for NO<INF>X</INF>. For additional
explanation for the caps and tracking process, see the emails dated
September 11, 2026, and September 23, 2026, from Tim Franquist,
Director of Air Quality Planning, SJVUAPCD, to Rory Mays, EPA Region
IX.
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Table 1 of this document provides a summary of the baseline
emissions inventories for the base year and future years in tpd
(average summer day) for VOC and NO<INF>X</INF> for the 2015 ozone
NAAQS.\45\ Based on the emissions inventory for 2017, the largest VOC
emission sources are area sources, followed by stationary sources, off-
road mobile sources, and finally on-road mobile sources, and the
largest NO<INF>X</INF> emission sources are on-road and off-road mobile
sources, followed by stationary sources, and finally area sources. A
comparison of the base year with the future years shows the substantial
decrease that is expected to be achieved through CARB's regulations for
on-road and off-road mobile sources together with vehicle turnover
(i.e., the replacement of older, more polluting models with new models
manufactured to meet tighter emissions standards). For a more detailed
discussion of the methodologies used to develop the inventories, see
Appendix B of the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan and pages 39 through 40 of the
2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision.
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\45\ Table 1 summarizes anthropogenic emissions sources only,
which is consistent with the EPA's ``Emissions Inventory Guidance
for Implementation of Ozone and Particulate Matter National Ambient
Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulations,'' May
2017. Anthropogenic emissions sources are distinguishable from
natural sources, which include biogenic, geogenic, and wildfire
emissions sources. Both anthropogenic and natural sources of
emissions are, however, included in emissions inventories used for
attainment demonstration modeling purposes.
Table 1--San Joaquin Valley Base Year and Future Year Baseline Emissions Inventories for the 2015 Ozone NAAQS
[Summer planning inventory, tpd]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2017 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2037
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOX VOC NOX VOC NOX VOC NOX VOC NOX VOC NOX VOC NOX VOC
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stationary Sources.......................................... 24.49 83.88 21.93 82.96 19.43 84.65 18.42 85.57 16.54 87.65 16.25 90.49 16.20 92.85
Area Sources................................................ 7.70 154.78 7.33 156.69 4.01 153.84 3.92 155.15 3.80 156.78 3.68 158.22 3.62 159.21
On-Road Mobile Sources...................................... 100.61 33.92 51.64 21.17 40.59 18.79 36.24 17.12 33.95 15.57 32.66 14.20 32.37 13.58
Off-Road Mobile Sources..................................... 99.59 53.10 77.53 44.99 67.97 39.51 60.98 34.17 55.51 30.21 50.52 27.23 46.60 25.46
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total................................................... 232.39 325.68 158.43 305.81 132.00 296.78 119.56 292.02 109.80 290.21 103.10 290.13 98.80 291.11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision, Table 14 and Appendix A, pages A-11 to A-14. The sum of the emissions values may not equal the total due to rounding of the numbers.
[[Page 69917]]
3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
As noted previously, the EPA approved the base year emissions
inventory for San Joaquin Valley for the 2015 ozone NAAQS in 2022. We
are reviewing the updated base year emissions inventory in the SJV 2022
Ozone Plan to ensure that it continues to meet the requirements of CAA
sections 172(c)(3) and 182(a)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1315.
We have reviewed the 2017 base year emissions inventory in the SJV
2022 Ozone Plan and the inventory methodologies used by the District
and CARB for consistency with CAA requirements and EPA guidance. First,
we find that the 2017 inventory includes estimates for VOC and
NO<INF>X</INF> for a typical ozone season weekday and that CARB and the
District have provided adequate documentation explaining how the
emissions are calculated. Second, we find that the 2017 base year
emissions inventory in the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan reflects appropriate
emissions models and methodologies and, therefore, represents a
comprehensive, accurate, and current inventory of actual emissions
during that year in the San Joaquin Valley. Therefore, the EPA proposes
to approve the 2017 emissions inventory in the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan as
meeting the requirements for base year inventories for the 2015 ozone
NAAQS set forth in CAA sections 172(c)(3) and 182(a)(1) and 40 CFR
51.1315.
With respect to the future year baseline emissions inventories, we
have reviewed the growth and control factors and find them acceptable
and conclude that the future baseline emissions inventories in the SJV
2022 Ozone Plan, as revised by the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision,
reflect appropriate calculation methods and the latest planning
assumptions. We have reviewed the documentation for the ERCs and find
that they are appropriately accounted for in the future year baseline
emissions inventories as an off-model adjustment to the inventories.
Moreover, we recognize the District's adoption of a cap on the amount
of pre-baseline ERCs that can be used through 2037 as providing further
assurance that the use of pre-baseline ERCs does not interfere with RFP
or attainment of the 2015 ozone NAAQS in the San Joaquin Valley.
Also, as a general matter, the EPA will approve a SIP revision that
takes emissions reduction credit for a control measure only where the
EPA has approved the measure as part of the SIP. Thus, to take credit
for the emissions reductions from District and CARB rules for
stationary, area, and mobile sources, those rules must be approved by
the EPA into the SIP.\46\ The EPA performed a review of District and
CARB rules relied upon in developing the future baseline emissions
inventories for the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, as revised by the 2026 Extreme
Ozone SIP Revision.\47\ Based on our review, we find that most of the
rules relied upon in developing the future baseline emissions
inventories are approved as part of the SIP.\48\ However, there are
several exceptions where EPA action is pending on SIP submissions of
District and CARB rules that are relied upon in the future baseline
emissions inventories. We discuss these exceptions in further detail in
sections II.E (regarding the attainment demonstration) and II.F
(regarding the RFP demonstration) of this document.
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\46\ See generally Comm. for a Better Arvin v. EPA, 786 F.3d
1169, 1175-77 (9th Cir. 2015).
\47\ The EPA's review of District rules relied upon in
developing the baseline future year emissions inventories is
presented in the EPA's ``Technical Support Document, EPA Evaluation
of District Control Measures and Transportation Conformity Budgets
for the San Joaquin Valley 70 ppb Ozone SIP,'' October 2026.
\48\ For mobile source rules, see, e.g., 81 FR 39424 (June 16,
2016), 82 FR 14446 (Mar. 21, 2017), and 83 FR 23232 (May 18, 2018),
as well as 75 FR 26653 (May 12, 2010) (revisions to California on-
road reformulated gasoline and diesel fuel regulations), 75 FR 38023
(July 1, 2010) (revisions to California Smog Check program), 87 FR
27949 (May 10, 2022) (Heavy-Duty Vehicle Inspection Program/Periodic
Smoke Inspection Program), and 91 FR 5325 (Feb. 6, 2026) (partial
approval of the HD I/M Regulation).
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Broadly speaking, we therefore propose to find that the future year
baseline emissions inventories in the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, as revised
by the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision, are properly supported by SIP-
approved stationary, area, and mobile source measures.
D. Reasonably Available Control Measures Demonstration
1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
CAA section 172(c)(1) requires that each attainment plan provide
for the implementation of all RACM as expeditiously as practicable
(``including such reductions in emissions from existing sources in the
area as may be obtained through the adoption, at a minimum, of
reasonably available control technology (RACT)''), and to provide for
attainment of the NAAQS. The 2015 Ozone SRR requires that, for each
nonattainment area required to submit an attainment demonstration, the
State concurrently submit a SIP revision demonstrating that it has
adopted all RACM necessary to demonstrate attainment as expeditiously
as practicable and to meet any RFP requirement.\49\
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\49\ 40 CFR 51.1312(c).
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The EPA has previously provided guidance interpreting the RACM
requirement in the ``General Preamble for the Implementation of the
Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990'' (``General Preamble'') and in a
memorandum entitled ``Guidance on the Reasonably Available Control
Measure Requirement and Attainment Demonstration Submissions for Ozone
Nonattainment Areas.'' \50\ In short, to address the requirement to
adopt all RACM, States should consider all potentially reasonable
measures for source categories in the nonattainment area to determine
whether they are reasonably available for implementation in that area
and whether they would, if implemented individually or collectively,
advance the area's attainment date by one year or more.\51\
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\50\ See General Preamble, 57 FR 13498, 13560 (Apr. 16, 1992)
and memorandum dated November 30, 1999, from John S. Seitz,
Director, OAQPS, to Regional Air Directors, Subject: ``Guidance on
the Reasonably Available Control Measure Requirement and Attainment
Demonstration Submissions for Ozone Nonattainment Areas.''
\51\ Ibid see also 44 FR 20372 (Apr. 4, 1979), and memorandum
dated December 14, 2000, from John S. Seitz, Director, OAQPS, to
Regional Air Directors, Subject: ``Additional Submission on RACM
From States with Severe One-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area SIPs.''
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For ozone nonattainment areas classified as ``Moderate'' or above,
CAA section 182(b)(2) also requires implementation of RACT for all
major sources of VOC and for each VOC source category for which the EPA
has issued control techniques guidelines. CAA section 182(f) requires
that RACT under CAA section 182(b)(2) also apply to major stationary
sources of NO<INF>X</INF>. In Extreme areas, a major source is a
stationary source that emits or has the potential to emit at least 10
tpy of VOC or NO<INF>X</INF> (CAA sections 182(e) and (f)). Under the
2015 Ozone SRR, States were required to submit SIP revisions meeting
the RACT requirements of CAA sections 182(b)(2) and 182(f) no later
than 24 months after the effective date of designation for the 2015
ozone NAAQS. Implementation of the required RACT measures is required
as expeditiously as practicable but no later than January 1 of the 5th
year after the effective date of designation for the 2015 ozone NAAQS
(see 40 CFR 51.1312(a)).\52\
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\52\ Under 40 CFR 51.1312(a)(3), the implementation deadline for
implementing RACT in the San Joaquin Valley was January 1, 2023.
California submitted the RACT SIP for the 2015 ozone NAAQS for San
Joaquin Valley on August 3, 2020. The EPA will act on the RACT SIP
submission in a separate rulemaking. The EPA's proposed action on
RACM does not approve or prejudge RACT and any RACT deficiency will
be addressed in the separate action.
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[[Page 69918]]
2. Summary of the State's Submission
For the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, the District, CARB, and the local MPOs
each undertook a process to identify and evaluate potential RACM that
could contribute to expeditious attainment of the 2015 ozone NAAQS in
the San Joaquin Valley. We describe each agency's process below.
a. District's RACM Analysis
The District's RACM demonstration and control strategy for the 2015
ozone NAAQS focuses on stationary and area source controls and is
described in Chapter 3 and Appendix C of the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan. To
identify potential RACM, the District reviewed 60 District rules for
the wide array of emission source categories in the San Joaquin Valley
and compared those measures against Federal requirements and
regulations implemented by the State and other air districts.
Prior to the adoption of the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, the District
developed and implemented comprehensive plans to provide for attainment
of the NAAQS for particulate matter less than 2.5 [micro]m in diameter
(PM<INF>2.5</INF>) (e.g., the ``2018 Plan for the 1997, 2006, and 2012
PM<INF>2.5</INF> Standards'' (``2018 PM<INF>2.5</INF> Plan'')) and
ozone (e.g., the ``2016 Plan for the 2008 8-Hour Ozone Standard''
(``2016 Ozone Plan'')).\53\ These plans have resulted in the District's
adoption of many new rules and amendments to existing rules for
stationary and area sources, including amendments to District rules for
flares; large boilers, steam generators, and process heaters; solid
fuel-fired boilers, steam generators, and process heaters; glass
melting furnaces; internal combustion engines; and woodburning
fireplaces and heaters.
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\53\ SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, Appendix C, page C-1. See, e.g., the
EPA's approval of the 2018 PM<INF>2.5</INF> Plan with respect to the
best available control measure (BACM) and most stringent measure
(MSM) requirements for the 2006 PM<INF>2.5</INF> NAAQS at 85 FR
44192 (July 22, 2020) and the EPA's approval of the 2016 Ozone Plan
with respect to the RACM requirement at 84 FR 3302 (Feb. 12, 2019).
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Table 2 identifies the District control measures, as listed in
Table 3-1 of the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, that contribute to attainment of
the 2015 ozone NAAQS by 2037 and the dates on which CARB submitted the
measure or, if applicable, the EPA approved the measure. As shown in
Table 2, the EPA has approved most of these measures into the
California SIP.
Table 2--District Rules Achieving Emission Reductions In or After 2017 That Are Accounted for in the SJV 2022
Ozone Plan Attainment Demonstration
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amendment EPA final action date
Rule No. Rule title date cited Implementation begins or CARB SIP
in plan submission date
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4103 \a\............ Open Burning........... 6/17/2021 2021-2025................... 87 FR 36222 (June 16,
2022).
4308................ Boilers, Steam 11/14/2013 2015-2034................... 80 FR 7803 (Feb. 12,
Generators, and 2015).
Process Heaters--0.075
MMBtu/hr to less than
2.0 MMBtu/hr \b\.
4311................ Flares................. 12/17/2020 2024........................ 87 FR 79806 (Dec. 28,
2022)
4306/4320........... Boilers, Steam 12/17/2020 2024........................ SIP submitted March
Generators, and 12, 2021.
Process Heaters--Phase
3/Greater Than 5.0
MMBtu/hr \b\.
4352................ Solid Fuel Fired 12/16/2021 2024........................ SIP submitted March 9,
Boilers, Steam 2022.
Generators, and
Process Heaters.
4354................ Glass Melting Furnaces. 12/16/2021 2024, 2030.................. SIP submitted March 9,
2022.
4601................ Architectural Coatings. 4/16/2020 2022........................ 87 FR 78544 (Dec. 22,
2022).
4702................ Internal Combustion 8/19/2021 2024, 2030.................. SIP submitted Oct. 15,
Engines. 2021.
4901 \c\............ Wood Burning Fireplaces 6/20/2019 2019........................ 85 FR 44206 (July 22,
and Wood Burning 2020).
Heaters.
4902................ Residential Water 3/19/2009 2010-2017................... 75 FR 24408 (May 5,
Heaters. 2010).
4905 \d\............ Natural Gas-Fired, Fan- 12/16/2021 2015-2035................... SIP submission of 2021
Type Residential amendments withdrawn
Central Furnaces. on May 7, 2024; EPA
approved prior SIP
submission of 2015
amendments at 81 FR
17390 (Mar. 29,
2016).
9410................ Employer Based Trip 12/17/2009 Ongoing..................... 81 FR 6761 (Feb. 9,
Reduction. 2016).
9510................ Indirect Source Review. 12/21/2017 Ongoing..................... 86 FR 33542 (June 25,
2021).
9610................ [SIP] Credit for 6/20/2013 Ongoing..................... 80 FR 19020 (Apr. 9,
Emission Reductions 2015).
Generated Through
Incentive Programs.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Columns 1-4 of the table are from SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, Table 3-1.
\a\ The open burning amendments are implemented via District Resolution 21-06-12 and related materials for Rule
4103.
\b\ Million British Thermal Units per hour (MMBtu/hr).
\c\ The District further amended Rule 4901 on May 18, 2023, for contingency measures and the EPA has approved
the amendment into the SIP. 89 FR 80749 (Oct. 4, 2024).
\d\ The District further amended Rule 4905 on March 21, 2024, and submitted a SIP revision for the amendments to
the EPA on May 7, 2024.
The District's RACM evaluation in Appendix C of the SJV 2022 Ozone
Plan provides the following for each rule reviewed:
<bullet> Base year and projected baseline emissions for the
affected source category;
<bullet> Description of the affected sources and discussion of the
current requirements of the rule, including any recent amendments as of
the plan's development;
<bullet> Discussion of potential additional control measures,
including, in many cases, a discussion of the technological and
economic feasibility of the additional control measures. This includes
comparison of each District rule to analogous control measures adopted
by other agencies (including the EPA, the State, and other air
districts such as Bay Area Air Quality Management District, South Coast
Air Quality Management District, Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality
Management District, and Ventura County Air Pollution Control
District);
[[Page 69919]]
<bullet> Statement of whether potential additional control measures
would be available and appropriate for contingency measure
requirements; and
<bullet> A summary of the District's findings.
Based on its evaluation, the District concludes that it is
implementing all RACM for sources under the District's jurisdiction.
b. CARB's RACM Analysis
Chapter 5, subchapter 5.3.2 and Appendix D of the SJV 2022 Ozone
Plan contain CARB's evaluation of mobile source and other statewide
control measures that reduce emissions of NO<INF>X</INF> and VOC in the
San Joaquin Valley. Source categories for which CARB has primary
responsibility for reducing emissions in California include most new
and existing on- and off-road engines and vehicles, motor vehicle
fuels, and consumer products. The California Department of Pesticide
Regulation (DPR) is responsible for regulating the application of
pesticides, which is a significant source of VOC emissions in the San
Joaquin Valley.
Given the need for substantial emissions reductions from mobile and
area sources to meet the NAAQS in California nonattainment areas, the
State has developed stringent control measures for on-road and off-road
mobile sources and the fuels that power them. CAA section 209(a)
includes a broad preemption provision, which states that ``[n]o State
or any political subdivision thereof shall adopt or attempt to enforce
any standard relating to the control of emissions from new motor
vehicles or new motor vehicle engines.'' However, Congress provided an
exception in CAA section 209(b), under which California can obtain a
waiver of preemption from the EPA if certain statutory conditions are
met. Under CAA section 209(e)(2)(A), California may similarly seek and
obtain a waiver of preemption, also called an authorization, from the
EPA to adopt and enforce standards and other requirements related to
the control of emissions from nonroad vehicles or engines, with certain
exceptions, if certain statutory conditions are met. The EPA has
approved mobile source regulations for which waivers or authorizations
have been issued as revisions to the California SIP.\54\
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\54\ See, e.g., 81 FR 39424 (June 16, 2016), 82 FR 14446 (Mar.
21, 2017), and 83 FR 8404 (Feb. 27, 2018); see also Comm. for a
Better Arvin, 786 F.3d 1169 (9th Cir. 2015).
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CARB's mobile source program extends beyond regulations that are
subject to the preemption and waiver or authorization process set forth
in CAA section 209, including standards and other requirements to
control emissions from in-use heavy-duty trucks and buses and gasoline
and diesel fuel specifications.\55\ Generally, these regulations have
been submitted and approved as revisions to the California SIP.\56\
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\55\ CAA section 211(c)(4)(B) excludes the State of California
from the motor vehicle fuel preemption provisions otherwise
applicable to the States under CAA section 211(c)(4)(A).
\56\ See, e.g., the EPA's approval of standards and other
requirements to control emissions from in-use heavy-duty diesel-
powered trucks at 77 FR 20308 (Apr. 4, 2012), revisions to the
California on-road reformulated gasoline and diesel fuel regulations
at 75 FR 26653 (May 12, 2010), and revisions to the California
light-duty motor vehicle I/M program at 75 FR 38023 (July 1, 2010).
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In addition, CARB presents its RACM analysis of area source
programs under the jurisdiction of State agencies, such as those for
VOC emissions from consumer products (including CARB's Consumer
Products Regulations adopted through 2021) and pesticide application
(including DPR's regulations adopted through 2013 that apply in the San
Joaquin Valley).\57\ Similarly, these regulations have been submitted
and approved as revisions to the California SIP.\58\
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\57\ SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, Chapter 5, pages 5-16 through 5-19.
\58\ See, e.g., the EPA's approval of consumer products
regulations, at 79 FR 62346 (Oct. 17, 2014) (for amendments adopted
through 2013) and 85 FR 57703 (Sep. 16, 2020) (for amendments
adopted through 2018), and pesticide application regulations, at 77
FR 65294 (Oct. 26, 2012) (for five ozone nonattainment areas in
California, including San Joaquin Valley) and 81 FR 64350 (Sep. 20,
2016) (for San Joaquin Valley).
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The State concludes that, in light of the comprehensiveness and
stringency of the State's mobile and area source programs, all RACM for
mobile and area sources under CARB's and DPR's jurisdictions are being
implemented, and that no additional reasonably available measure would
advance attainment of the 2015 ozone NAAQS by at least a year.
c. Local Jurisdictions' RACM Analysis and Transportation Control
Measures
Chapter 5, subchapter 5.3.3 and section D.3.4 and Attachment A of
Appendix D of the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan contain the evaluation of
transportation control measures (TCMs) for all the San Joaquin Valley
MPOs, building upon analyses prepared in the development of the MPOs'
2022 Regional Transportation Plans (RTPs) and 2023 FSTIPs. These RTP
and FSTIP amendments were developed in consultation with Federal,
State, and local transportation and air quality planning agencies and
other stakeholders. The MPOs already implement many of the TCMs
identified in CAA section 108(f) through planning efforts such as the
Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality (CMAQ) cost effectiveness policy
that the MPOs adopted in 2007. While the MPOs found that the selected
TCMs contribute to the SJV air quality attainment goals, they also
state that the emission reductions from such TCMs were too small or
impossible to quantify and they conclude that such TCMs would therefore
not advance the attainment date.\59\
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\59\ SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, chapter 5, page 5-19.
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As part of its overall RACM conclusion, the State concludes that
all RACM are being implemented in the San Joaquin Valley, inclusive of
the local TCMs, and that there are no additional RACM under each
agency's jurisdiction that would advance attainment by one year or
contribute to RFP in the San Joaquin Valley.
3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
The EPA has reviewed the RACM demonstration in the SJV 2022 Ozone
Plan for stationary, area, and mobile sources of NO<INF>X</INF> and VOC
in the San Joaquin Valley, including the processes, analyses, and
conclusions presented by the District, CARB, and MPOs with respect to
sources under their jurisdictions, as described in the following
paragraphs. We provide additional detail on many of the District's
control measures for stationary and area sources in the EPA's
``Technical Support Document, EPA Evaluation of District Control
Measures and Transportation Conformity Budgets for the San Joaquin
Valley 70 ppb Ozone SIP,'' October 2026 (``EPA's District Rules and
Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets TSD'').
The process the District used in the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan to
identify RACM is generally consistent with the EPA's recommendations in
the General Preamble. The process included compiling a comprehensive
list of potential control measures for sources of NO<INF>X</INF> and
VOC in the San Joaquin Valley.\60\ As part of this process, the
District evaluated potential controls for all relevant source
categories for economic and technological feasibility and provided
justifications for the rejection of certain identified measures. The
District concluded in its RACM evaluation that no additional measures
could advance attainment by one year.
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\60\ See SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, Appendix C.
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We have reviewed the District's determination in the SJV 2022 Ozone
Plan that its stationary and area source
[[Page 69920]]
control measures represent RACM for NO<INF>X</INF> and VOC. In our
review, we also considered our previous evaluations of the District's
rules in connection with our approval of the RACM demonstration for the
San Joaquin Valley for the 2008 ozone NAAQS and the approval of the
demonstrations of best available control measures (BACM) and most
stringent measures (MSM) for NO<INF>X</INF> for the San Joaquin Valley
for the PM<INF>2.5</INF> NAAQS.\61\
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\61\ 84 FR 3302 (Feb. 12, 2019) (EPA approval of RACM
demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS); 85 FR 44192 (July 22, 2020)
(EPA approval of BACM/MSM demonstration for 2006 PM<INF>2.5</INF>
NAAQS); (EPA approval of BACM/MSM demonstration upheld in Medical
Advocates for Healthy Air v. EPA, 9th Cir., No. 20-72780, memorandum
decision, April 13, 2022, but vacated in part on other grounds); and
88 FR 86581 (Dec. 14, 2023) (EPA approval of BACM demonstration for
the 1997 annual PM<INF>2.5</INF> NAAQS).
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The District's rules providing for the implementation of RACM for
the 2015 ozone NAAQS are accounted for in the plan's baseline control
strategy and have been approved by the EPA into the California SIP,
except for the most recent amendments to District Rules 4306/4320,
4352, 4354, 4702, and 4905.
The District's RACM evaluation refers to the most recent amendments
of these rules as meeting or exceeding the RACT or RACM requirement, as
applicable, and thus, we have reviewed the amended rules to determine
whether their approval is necessary to meet the requirement or goes
beyond the requirement. For the following reasons, we find that we do
not need to approve the most recent amendments to District Rules 4306/
4320, 4352, 4354, 4702, and 4905 to propose approval of the RACM
demonstration for the San Joaquin Valley for the 2015 ozone NAAQS:
<bullet> All of these rules establish emission limits for
NO<INF>X</INF>, and the EPA approved the District rules as meeting the
more stringent BACM requirement in 2023 based on the previous versions
of the rules that are approved into the SIP; \62\
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\62\ 88 FR 86581 (Dec. 14, 2023); see also Table 4-1 of the
SJVUAPCD, ``Attainment Plan Revision for the 1997 Annual
PM<INF>2.5</INF> Standard,'' August 19, 2021.
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<bullet> The District's RACT demonstration for the 2015 ozone NAAQS
relies on the previous version of the rules that are approved into the
SIP and not the most recent amendments; \63\
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\63\ SJVUAPCD, ``2020 Reasonably Available Control Technology
(RACT) Demonstration for the 2015 8-Hour Ozone Standard,'' June 18,
2020 (submitted to the EPA on August 3, 2020).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
<bullet> The most recent amendments of District Rules 4306/
4320,\64\ 4352,\65\ 4354,\66\ and 4702 \67\ were not adopted for the
purpose of meeting the RACT/RACM requirement for ozone but rather for
the purpose of providing for attainment of the PM<INF>2.5</INF> NAAQS
by the applicable attainment dates; and
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\64\ SJVUAPCD, Final Staff Report, ``Proposed Amendments to Rule
4306 (Boilers, Steam Generators, and Process Heaters--Phase 3),
Proposed Amendments to Rule 4320 (Advanced Emission Reduction
Options for Boilers, Steam Generators, and Process Heaters Greater
Than 5.0 MMBtu/hr),'' December 17, 2020, page 2.
\65\ SJVUAPCD, Final Draft Staff Report, ``Proposed Amendments
to Rule 4352 (Solid Fuel Fired Boilers, Steam Generators, and
Process Heaters),'' December 16, 2021, page 5.
\66\ SJVUAPCD, Final Draft Staff Report, ``Proposed Amendments
to Rule 4354 (Glass Melting Furnaces),'' December 16, 2021, page 5.
\67\ SJVUAPCD, Final Staff Report, ``Proposed Amendments to Rule
4702 (Internal Combustion Engines),'' August 19, 2021, page 4.
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<bullet> The most recent amendments to District Rule 4905 were
intended to extend the implementation period for certain unit types as
a response to the limited number of certified compliant units available
by the compliance deadline dates,\68\ which means the 2015 version of
the rule that is approved into the SIP continues to meet the RACM
requirement.
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\68\ SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, Appendix C, page C-319.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
We recognize that emissions reductions from the most recent
amendments are included in the baseline emissions estimates used for
the RFP and attainment demonstrations for the 2015 ozone NAAQS. Because
we cannot credit the emissions reductions from rules or amendments that
we have not yet approved, we have taken the foregone emissions
reductions into account in our evaluation of the future baseline
emissions inventories and the associated RFP and attainment
demonstrations, as described in sections II.E.3 and II.F.3 of this
document. The emission reductions included under CAA section 182(e)(5)
new technology provisions are 32.4 tpd NO<INF>X</INF> in 2037, which is
approximately ten times the emission reductions estimated for the most
recent amendments to District Rules 4306/4320, 4352, 4354, 4702, and
4905.
Given the larger overall reductions needed to attain by 2037, the
emissions reductions from the most recent amendments of the rules would
serve only to reduce the reductions expected from new technology
provisions rather than to advance the attainment date. Furthermore, the
emissions from these rules are not necessary to meet the RFP
requirements. Because the emissions reductions associated with the most
recent amendments would not advance the attainment date nor are they
needed to meet the RFP requirements, we do not need to approve the most
recent amendments as part of the SIP to propose approval of the
submitted RACM demonstration.
With respect to mobile sources and other sources under CARB's
primary jurisdiction, CARB has developed and implements stringent
control measures for on-road and off-road mobile sources, and its
current program addresses the full range of mobile sources in the San
Joaquin Valley through regulatory programs for certain aspects of both
new and in-use vehicles. With respect to pesticides under DPR's
jurisdiction, DPR has developed regulations to limit VOC emissions from
agricultural and commercial structural pesticides, including fumigant
and non-fumigant pesticides, that are applied in the San Joaquin
Valley. CARB's and DPR's rules providing for the implementation of RACM
for the 2015 ozone NAAQS are accounted for in the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan's
baseline control strategy and have been approved into the California
SIP, with several exceptions described in section II.E.3 of this
document.
With respect to TCMs, the current TCMs implemented by the San
Joaquin Valley MPOs, including those selected from the MPOs' 2021
review of TCMs, are reflected in each MPO's 2022 RTP and 2023 FSTIP.
The 2022 RTPs and 2023 FSTIPs were adopted by the MPOs in July to
September 2022 and approved by the Federal Highway Administration on
December 16, 2022.\69\ We find that the MPOs' process for identifying
additional TCM RACM and their conclusions that the TCMs being
implemented in the San Joaquin Valley (i.e., the TCMs in their 2022
RTPs and 2023 FSTIPs and described in section D.3.4 and Attachment A of
Appendix D of the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan) represent all TCM RACM to be
reasonably justified and supported.
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\69\ Letter dated December 16, 2022, from Ray Tellis, Regional
Administrator, Federal Highway Administration, to James Anderson,
Chief, Division of Financial Programming, California Department of
Transportation, subject ``California 2023 FSTIP Approval.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on our review of the District's RACM determination in the SJV
2022 Ozone Plan and our analysis of the several District rules where
EPA action is pending on the latest rule amendments, as discussed
herein, we propose to find that the District's rules provide for the
implementation of RACM for stationary and area sources of
NO<INF>X</INF> and VOC in the San Joaquin Valley for the 2015 ozone
NAAQS. Similarly, we find that the programs developed and administered
by CARB for mobile
[[Page 69921]]
sources and consumer products, by DPR for pesticides, and by the MPOs
for TCMs provide for the implementation of RACM for applicable sources
of NO<INF>X</INF> and VOC in the San Joaquin Valley for the 2015 ozone
NAAQS.
Overall, based on our review of the plan's RACM demonstrations for
stationary, area, and mobile sources of NO<INF>X</INF> and VOC, we
agree with the State, District, and MPOs' conclusions that there are no
additional reasonably available measures that would advance attainment
of the 2015 ozone NAAQS in the San Joaquin Valley by at least one
year.\70\ We also find that no additional reasonably available TCMs are
needed to demonstrate RFP. For the foregoing reasons, we propose to
find that the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, as revised by the 2026 Extreme Ozone
SIP Revision, provides for the implementation of all RACM as required
by CAA section 172(c)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1312(c).
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\70\ We have preliminarily concluded that there are no
additional RACM. Even if there were, the associated emissions
reductions would not advance the attainment date; rather, they would
reduce the extent to which the attainment demonstration relies on
aggregate emissions reduction commitments and new technology
provisions.
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E. Attainment Demonstration
1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
CAA section 182(c)(2)(A) requires that a plan for an ozone
nonattainment area classified ``Serious'' or above include a
``demonstration that the plan . . . will provide for attainment of the
ozone [NAAQS] by the applicable attainment date. This attainment
demonstration must be based on photochemical grid modeling or any other
analytical method determined . . . to be at least as effective.'' The
attainment demonstration predicts future ambient concentrations for
comparison to the NAAQS, making use of available information on
measured concentrations, meteorology, and current and projected
emissions inventories of ozone precursors, including the effect of
control measures in the plan.
Areas classified Extreme for the 2015 ozone NAAQS must demonstrate
attainment as expeditiously as practicable, but no later than 20 years
after the effective date of designation to nonattainment. The San
Joaquin Valley was designated nonattainment for the 2015 ozone NAAQS,
effective August 3, 2018.\71\ Accordingly, the area must demonstrate
attainment of the 2015 ozone NAAQS as expeditiously as practicable, but
no later than August 3, 2038.\72\ An attainment demonstration must show
attainment of the standards by the ozone season prior to the attainment
date, so in practice, Extreme nonattainment areas must demonstrate
attainment no later than 2037 for the 2015 ozone NAAQS.
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\71\ 83 FR 25776 (June 4, 2018).
\72\ 83 FR 62998 (Dec. 6, 2018).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
An attainment demonstration consists of: (1) Technical analyses,
such as base year and future year modeling, to identify sources of
emissions that are contributing to violations of the ozone NAAQS within
the nonattainment area; (2) analyses of future year emissions
reductions and air quality improvement resulting from existing (i.e.,
already-adopted or ``on the books'') Federal, State, and local programs
and potential additional State and local measures needed for
attainment, including RACM and RACT for the area; (3) a list of adopted
measures (including RACT) with schedules for implementation and other
means and techniques necessary and appropriate for demonstrating
attainment as expeditiously as practicable but no later than the
outermost attainment date for the area's classification; and (4) a RACM
analysis to determine whether any additional RACM measures could
advance attainment by one year.\73\ In this section, we address the
first two components of the attainment demonstration--the technical
analyses and control strategy. We addressed the latter two components
in section II.D of this document.
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\73\ 83 FR 62998, 63003 (Dec. 6, 2018) (final 2015 Ozone SRR)
and 80 FR 12264, 12268 (Mar. 6, 2015) (final rule for implementation
of the 2008 ozone NAAQS). The modeling and attainment demonstration
requirements under the 2015 Ozone SRR are codified at 40 CFR
51.1308.
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The EPA's recommended procedures for modeling ozone as part of an
attainment demonstration are contained in ``Modeling Guidance for
Demonstrating Air Quality Goals for Ozone, PM<INF>2.5</INF>, and
Regional Haze'' (``Modeling Guidance'').\74\ The Modeling Guidance
includes recommendations for a modeling protocol, model input
preparation, model performance evaluation, use of model output for the
numerical NAAQS attainment test, and modeling documentation. Air
quality modeling is performed using meteorology and emissions from a
base year, and the predicted concentrations from this base case
modeling are compared to air quality monitoring data from that year to
evaluate model performance.
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\74\ Modeling Guidance, EPA 454/R-18-009, November 2018.
Additional EPA modeling guidance can be found in 40 CFR part 51,
Appendix W, ``Guideline on Air Quality Models,'' 82 FR 5182 (Jan.
17, 2017). These documents are available in the docket for this
rulemaking and at <a href="https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2020-10/documents/o3-pm-rh-modeling_guidance-2018.pdf">https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2020-10/documents/o3-pm-rh-modeling_guidance-2018.pdf</a> and <a href="https://www.epa.gov/scram/clean-air-act-permit-modeling-guidance">https://www.epa.gov/scram/clean-air-act-permit-modeling-guidance</a>,
respectively.
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Once the model performance is determined to be acceptable, future
year emissions are simulated with the model. The relative (or percent,
%) change in modeled concentration due to future emissions reductions
provides a relative response factor (RRF). Each monitoring site's RRF
is applied to its monitored base year design value to provide the
future design value for comparison to the NAAQS. The Modeling Guidance
also recommends supplemental air quality analyses, which may be used as
part of a weight of evidence analysis. A weight of evidence analysis
corroborates the attainment demonstration by considering evidence other
than the main air quality modeling attainment test, such as trends and
additional monitoring and modeling analyses. Lastly, an unmonitored
area analysis is used to predict areas of high ozone concentrations
where air quality monitoring data are not available. This analysis
utilizes interpolated ambient data with modeled outputs to determine
gradient-adjusted spatial fields. Section 4.7 of the Modeling Guidance
provides guidelines for estimating design values at unmonitored grid
cells.
The Modeling Guidance does not require a particular year to be used
as the base year for 8-hour ozone plans.\75\ The Modeling Guidance
states that the most recent year of the National Emissions Inventory
\76\ may be appropriate for use as the base year for modeling, but that
other years may be more appropriate when considering meteorology,
transport patterns, exceptional events, or other factors that may vary
from year to year.\77\ Therefore, the base year used for the attainment
demonstration need not be the same year used to meet the requirements
for emissions inventories and RFP.
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\75\ Modeling Guidance, section 2.7.1, page 35.
\76\ The National Emissions Inventory (NEI) is an electronic
database of criteria pollutant and precursor emissions data for the
United States. State, local, and Tribal agencies contribute to the
NEI every three years (2017, 2020, etc.). For more information about
the NEI, see: <a href="https://www.epa.gov/air-emissions-inventories/national-emissions-inventory-nei">https://www.epa.gov/air-emissions-inventories/national-emissions-inventory-nei</a>.
\77\ Modeling Guidance, section 2.7.1, page 35.
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With respect to the list of adopted measures, CAA section 172(c)(6)
requires that nonattainment area plans include enforceable emission
limitations and such other control measures, means, or techniques
(including economic incentives such as fees, marketable permits, and
auctions of emission rights), as well as schedules and timetables for
compliance, as may
[[Page 69922]]
be necessary or appropriate to provide for timely attainment of the
NAAQS.\78\ Under the 2015 Ozone SRR, all control measures needed for
attainment must be implemented no later than the beginning of the
attainment year ozone season.\79\ The attainment year ozone season is
defined as the ozone season immediately preceding a nonattainment
area's maximum attainment date.\80\
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\78\ See also CAA section 110(a)(2)(A).
\79\ 40 CFR 51.1308(d).
\80\ 40 CFR 51.1300(g).
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In addition, with respect to ozone nonattainment areas that are
classified Extreme, CAA section 182(e)(5) allows the Agency to exercise
discretion in approving Extreme area attainment plans that rely, in
part, on provisions that anticipate the development of new control
techniques or improvement of existing control technologies (referred to
herein as ``new technology'' provisions) and an attainment
demonstration based on such provisions. The State must demonstrate that
such provisions are not necessary to achieve the incremental emission
reductions required during the first 10 years after designation as
nonattainment (i.e., emission reductions required through August 3,
2028, as applied to the 2015 ozone NAAQS). Given that controls must be
in place throughout the applicable ozone season, and given that the ROP
and RFP demonstration requirements call for emissions milestones every
three years, in practical terms as applied to the 2015 ozone NAAQS,
this means that the new technology provisions can be used, in part, to
address emission reduction requirements in the attainment year (2037)
and RFP milestone years in the second 10 years of the 20-year
attainment period (2029, 2032, and 2035).
CAA section 182(e)(5) also requires the State to submit enforceable
commitments with the attainment plan to develop and adopt contingency
measures to be implemented if the new technology provisions fall short
of the necessary reductions. Such contingency measures must be
submitted to the EPA as SIP revisions no later than three years before
the proposed implementation of the new technology provisions and must
be adequate to achieve sufficient emission reductions, alongside other
approved plan provisions, to achieve the applicable periodic emission
reductions. As applied to the 2015 ozone NAAQS, the State would
identify any anticipated shortfall in emission reductions and submit
contingency measures to cover that shortfall by January 1, 2034, (i.e.,
three years prior to the 2037 attainment year) or three years prior to
any RFP milestone year emissions level (e.g., by January 1, 2032, for
the 2035 RFP milestone year).
2. Summary of the State's Submission
a. Photochemical Modeling
The SJV 2022 Ozone Plan includes photochemical modeling for the
2015 ozone NAAQS performed by CARB. The modeling relies on a 2018 base
year and demonstrates attainment of the 2015 ozone NAAQS in 2037.
As a general matter, the modeling for the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan
represents the most up-to-date photochemical modeling performed for the
area, accounting for improved chemical gaseous and particulate
mechanisms, improved computational resources and post-processing
utilities, enhanced spatial and temporal allocations of the emissions
inventory, and CARB's latest attainment demonstration methodology at
the time of plan development. Air quality modeling included in the SJV
2022 Ozone Plan is described briefly in Chapter 5 and in detail in
Appendix F (``Modeling Attainment Demonstration and Modeling
Protocol''). The plan discusses its modeling emissions inventory in
Attachment G (``Modeling Emissions Inventory'') and supplements the
plan's modeling results with a weight of evidence analysis in Appendix
H (``Weight of Evidence'').
Appendix F of the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan provides a description of
model input preparation procedures, various model configuration
options, and model performance statistics. The modeling protocol for
the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan contains all the elements recommended in the
Modeling Guidance, including: selection of model, time period to model,
modeling domain, and model boundary conditions and initialization
procedures; a discussion of emissions inventory development and other
model input preparation procedures; model performance evaluation
procedures; selection of days; and other details for calculating RRFs.
Appendix F also provides the coordinates of the modeling domain.
Appendix G of the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan thoroughly describes the
development of the modeling emissions inventory, including its chemical
speciation, its spatial and temporal allocation, its temperature
dependence, and quality assurance procedures.
The 2023 CARB Staff Report for the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan provides
additional information about CAA requirements that apply to the San
Joaquin Valley, including information on the attainment demonstration,
CARB's aggregate emission reduction commitments with an associated
schedule of control measures to be presented to the Board, and control
measure commitments by the District.<SUP>81 82</SUP> The 2026 Extreme
Ozone SIP Revision revises the State's control strategy to attain the
2015 ozone NAAQS, with corresponding revisions to the SJV 2022 Ozone
Plan aggregate emission reduction commitments. We describe these
changes in section II.E.2.b of this document. While CARB has revised
its schedule of control measures and added CAA section 182(e)(5) new
technology provisions into its attainment plan, it intends to achieve
the same total emission reductions accounted for in the modeled
attainment demonstration of SJV 2022 Ozone Plan.\83\
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\81\ 2023 CARB Staff Report, section IV.B.2 (``CARB
Commitments''). See also SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, chapter 3, section
3.5.2 (``CARB Commitments for the San Joaquin Valley''), chapter 5,
section 5.2 (``Modeling''), and Appendix F, section 3.2
(``Emissions'') and 3.5 (``Future Design Values''); and CARB
Resolution 23-3, page 6 regarding CARB commitments in the SJV 2022
Ozone Plan.
\82\ The District made certain control measure commitments in
the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan to evaluate and implement enhancements to a
set of stationary source controls. However, those District
commitments were not included in the modeled attainment
demonstration. 2023 CARB Staff Report, section IV.B.3. See also SJV
2022 Ozone Plan, chapter 3, section 3.3.3 regarding District
commitments in the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan.
\83\ 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision, pages 5 through 6.
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The modeling analysis uses version 5.2.1 of the CMAQ photochemical
model, developed by the EPA. To prepare meteorological input for CMAQ,
the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 from the
National Center for Atmospheric Research was used. CMAQ and WRF are
both recognized in the Modeling Guidance as technically sound, state-
of-the-art models. The areal extent and the horizontal and vertical
resolution used in these models are adequate for modeling ozone in the
San Joaquin Valley.
The WRF meteorological model results and performance statistics are
described in sections 3.1 (``Meteorological Model Evaluation'') of
Appendix F of the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan. The District and CARB evaluated
the performance of the WRF model through a series of simulations and
concluded that the daily WRF simulation for 2018 performed comparably
to recent WRF modeling studies of ozone formation in California. The
District's conclusions are supported by hourly time series for each of
the San Joaquin Valley subregions (northern, central, and southern),
with performance statistics provided in Table 8 of Appendix F for
[[Page 69923]]
wind speed, temperature and relative humidity.
Ozone model performance and related statistics are described in the
SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, Appendix F, section F.3.3 (``Air Quality Model
Evaluation''), which includes tables of statistics recommended in the
Modeling Guidance for ozone in the San Joaquin Valley. Model
performance metrics provided in the plan include mean bias, mean error,
mean fractional bias, mean fractional error, normalized mean bias,
normalized mean error, root mean square error, and correlation
coefficient. In addition, plots were provided in evaluating the
modeling: time-series plots comparing the predictions and observations,
scatter plots for comparing modeled and observed ozone concentrations,
and box plots summarizing model performance statistics across different
averaging times, as well as frequency distributions.
After the State accepted the model performance for the 2018 base
case, the model was applied to develop RRFs for the attainment
demonstration.\84\ This entailed running the model with the same
meteorological inputs as before, but with adjusted emissions
inventories to reflect the expected changes between 2018 and the
attainment year of 2037. The base year, or ``reference year'' as
referred to by the District and CARB, modeling inventory was the same
as the inventory for the modeling base case, except for the exclusion
of some emissions events that are random or cannot be projected to the
future.\85\ The 2037 inventory projects the base year into the future
by including the effect of economic growth and emissions control
measures. To develop the RRFs for the 8-hour ozone NAAQS, only the top
10 modeled days were used, consistent with the Modeling Guidance.\86\
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\84\ EPA Region IX, ``Technical Support Document, EPA Review of
Attainment Modeling in the San Joaquin Valley 2022 Ozone Plan for
the 2015 Ozone NAAQS,'' October 2026, page 22. Section 4.0 of the
Modeling Guidance focuses on establishing guidelines for analyzing
simulated emissions reductions for a future year with the goal of
meeting the NAAQS. The Modeling Guidance recommends examining
relative changes in design values through RRFs instead of absolute
values to reduce the effect of model biases. In short, the RRF is a
relative change in concentration with respect to a change in
emissions between a base and future year (i.e., the ratio of future
year and base year modeled concentrations) and is multiplied by the
base design value obtained from monitoring data at a particular site
to obtain a future year design value at that site.
\85\ The terms base year and reference year can be used
interchangeably. To use consistent EPA terminology, the terms ``base
year'' and ``base case'' are used in this document and correspond to
the District's and CARB's use of the terms ``reference year'' and
``base year,'' respectively.
\86\ See Modeling Guidance, section 4.2.1.
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The Modeling Guidance addresses attainment demonstrations with
ozone NAAQS based on 8-hour averages, and for the 2015 ozone NAAQS, the
SJV 2022 Ozone Plan carried out the attainment test procedure
consistent with the Modeling Guidance. The RRFs were calculated as the
ratio of future to base year concentrations. The resulting RRFs were
then applied to the reference design values at each monitoring site in
the San Joaquin Valley to obtain future year 2037 design values, which
are summarized in Table 15 of Appendix F of the plan. The modeled 2037
ozone design value at the Clovis monitoring site (the highest ozone
concentration site in the nonattainment area) is 0.068 ppm,
demonstrating attainment of the 2015 ozone NAAQS.
The SJV 2022 Ozone Plan modeling demonstration includes a weight of
evidence demonstration.\87\ The weight of evidence demonstration in
Attachment H of the plan includes ambient ozone data and trends,
meteorological influences, and precursor emissions trends and
reductions to complement the regional photochemical modeling analyses.
The 2023 CARB Staff Report for the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan concludes that
the weight of evidence analysis supports the conclusions of the
photochemical modeling.\88\
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\87\ SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, Appendix H (``Weight of Evidence, San
Joaquin Valley'').
\88\ 2023 CARB Staff Report, page 15.
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b. Control Strategy
In 2022 through 2023, the State adopted its original control
strategy for demonstrating attainment of the 2015 ozone NAAQS in the
San Joaquin Valley by 2037 and, in response to intervening events,
revised its control strategy in 2026. The revised control strategy
includes baseline control measures and aggregate emissions reduction
commitments to be fulfilled through CAA section 182(e)(5) new
technology provisions, as well as certain control measure
commitments.\89\ In the following paragraphs, we summarize the State's
original control strategy from the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan and California's
2022 State SIP Strategy, the subsequent events that affected the
original control strategy, and the State's revised control strategy
from the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision and related submission
materials.
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\89\ For this plan, CARB has made several commitments in
connection with the attainment demonstration. CARB has committed to
achieve aggregate emissions reductions of specified amounts in the
San Joaquin Valley by 2037. The aggregate emissions reduction
commitment includes a subset for which CARB requests approval under
the new technology provisions (i.e., CAA section 182(e)(5)). To
comply with the new technology provision requirements of the Act,
CARB commits to submit contingency measures to cover any shortfall
in the reductions expected from new technology provisions three
years prior to when the reductions are needed to meet a CAA
requirement--in this case, demonstrating attainment of the 2015
ozone NAAQS in 2037. As for the balance of the aggregate emissions
reductions, CARB commits to an enforceable schedule to bring certain
actions before the CARB Board by certain dates and to achieve a
specified amount of reductions in San Joaquin Valley by 2037.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The baseline control measures relied upon in the SJV 2022 Ozone
Plan represent rules and regulations adopted through the end of 2021.
See Table 2 of this document for the list of District rules relied upon
as baseline measures in the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan. CARB's baseline
measures include certain area source regulations, including the 2021-
2022 amendments to the Consumer Products Regulations and Method
310,\90\ certain on-road mobile source regulations, including the ACT
Regulation, Heavy-Duty Warranty Phase 1, Zero-Emission Airport Shuttle
Regulation, Omnibus Low NO<INF>X</INF> Program, and HD I/M Regulation,
and certain off-road mobile source regulations, including the 2016 and
2021 amendments to the Small Off-Road Engine Regulations (``SORE
Amendments'').
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\90\ The EPA proposes to approve the 2021 through 2022
Amendments to CARB's Consumer Products Regulations and Method 310 in
section III of this document.
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With respect to control measure commitments, through adoption of
the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, the District committed to explore and
implement a variety of stationary source emission reduction
opportunities to reduce VOC emissions from equipment and pipeline leaks
in the oil and gas sector through enhancements to Leak Detection and
Repair (LDAR) requirements or, in the case of sumps, through expansion
of applicability.\91\ Specifically, the District committed to explore
and implement more stringent LDAR requirements or to reconsider
exemptions for sumps for sources regulated under the following District
rules:
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\91\ SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, chapter 3, pages 3-9 and 3-10.
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<bullet> Rule 4401 (``Steam-Enhanced Crude Oil Production Well
Vents'');
<bullet> Rule 4402 (``Crude Oil Production Sumps'');
<bullet> Rule 4409 (``Components at Light Crude Oil Production
Facilities, Natural Gas Production Facilities, and Natural Gas
Processing Facilities'');
<bullet> Rule 4455 (``Components at Petroleum Refineries, Gas
Liquids Processing Facilities, and Chemical Plants'');
[[Page 69924]]
<bullet> Rule 4623 (``Storage of Organic Liquids''); and
<bullet> Rule 4624 (``Transfer of Organic Liquids'').
The District adopted these commitments as ``SIP-strengthening
measures'' and did not include emissions reductions from them in the
attainment demonstration.
For mobile and other sources under CARB's primary jurisdiction,
CARB developed and adopted the 2022 State SIP Strategy as a statewide
planning document to identify strategies and controls necessary to
attain the 2015 ozone NAAQS for multiple nonattainment areas.\92\ CARB
committed to pursue new SIP control measures or otherwise address each
measure identified in the 2022 State SIP Strategy and directed staff to
calculate and commit to emission reductions appropriate to each 2015
ozone NAAQS nonattainment area as the State developed attainment plans
for such areas.\93\
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\92\ CARB, 2022 State SIP Strategy, Executive Summary.
\93\ CARB Resolution 22-14, page 8 and Attachment A (``Proposed
2022 State SIP Strategy Measures and Schedule'').
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CARB's commitments for the applicable nonattainment areas consisted
of two components: (1) a commitment to bring an item to the Board for
defined new measures or take other specified actions within CARB's
authority by specified dates; and (2) a commitment to achieve aggregate
emissions reductions by specified dates.\94\ While the 2022 State SIP
Strategy included estimates of the emissions reductions from each of
the individual new measures, CARB's overall commitment was to achieve
the enforceable emissions reductions necessary from state-regulated
sources to attain the NAAQS. Therefore, if a particular measure were to
not achieve its expected emissions reductions, the State's overall
commitment to achieve the enforceable emissions reductions would still
apply.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\94\ CARB, 2022 State SIP Strategy, pages 32 through 33.
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For the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, CARB committed to achieve certain
aggregate emissions reductions of NO<INF>X</INF> and VOC by 2037 in the
San Joaquin Valley through 18 control measure commitments from the 2022
State SIP Strategy and three control measure commitments from the
previous 2016 State SIP Strategy \95\ that had not already been
fulfilled.\96\ Among the new control measure commitments from the 2022
State SIP Strategy were CARB's Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) and In-Use
Locomotive measures. The Advanced Clean Cars II measure was one of the
three control measure commitments from the previous 2016 State SIP
Strategy that were relied upon for the attainment demonstration in the
SJV 2022 Ozone Plan.
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\95\ CARB, ``Revised Proposed State Strategy for the State
Implementation Plan,'' March 7, 2017 (``2016 State SIP Strategy'').
\96\ CARB Resolution 23-3, page 6; 2023 CARB Staff Report,
section B.2 (``CARB Commitments'').
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Following the submission of the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan to the EPA, a
number of intervening events occurred that affect the control strategy
for the San Joaquin Valley for the 2015 ozone NAAQS. Two of these
events relate to baseline measures:
<bullet> Congress' enactment of statutes disapproving the waivers
previously issued by the EPA under CAA section 209(b) for certain on-
road regulations, including the ACT Regulation, Heavy-Duty Warranty
Phase 1, Zero-Emission Airport Shuttle Regulation, and Omnibus Low
NO<INF>X</INF> Program; \97\ and
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\97\ Public Law 119-15, 139 Stat. 65 (2025); Public Law 119-17,
139 Stat. 67 (2025).
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<bullet> Partial disapproval by the EPA of the HD I/M Regulation
with respect to vehicles registered out-of-state.\98\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\98\ 91 FR 5325 (February 6, 2026).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Three of these events relate to CARB's control measure commitments:
<bullet> Congress' enactment of a statute disapproving the waiver
issued by the EPA under CAA section 209(b) for the Advanced Clean Cars
II Regulation; \99\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\99\ See H.J. Res. 88, Public Law 119-16, 139 Stat. 66 (2025)
(for Advanced Clean Cars II).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
<bullet> Repeal by CARB of the In-Use Locomotive Regulation; \100\
and
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\100\ CARB, Resolution 25-4, June 26, 2025 (repealing the In-Use
Locomotive Regulation).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
<bullet> Partial repeal by CARB of the ACF Regulation.\101\
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\101\ CARB, Resolution 25-9, September 25, 2025 (amending the
ACF Regulation) and CARB Executive Order R-25-9 (adopting further
modified regulatory text consistent with CARB Resolution 25-9). The
California Office of Administrative Law approved the ACF Regulation
amendments and filed with the Secretary of State on September 10,
2026. In its action to repeal the ACF Regulation with respect to
private and Federal fleets, CARB also amended the ACF Regulation
requirements for State and local governments and provided
flexibility to most public agency utilities. As discussed further in
this document, CARB later eliminated the remaining portion of the
ACF control measure commitment for the San Joaquin Valley. In
addition, the EPA notes that California submitted the original ACF
Regulation as a waiver request under CAA sections 209(b) and 209(e)
but later withdrew the request before a waiver was granted, meaning
no applicable waiver issued for the ACF Regulation.
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Without these Congressionally disapproved CAA section 209(b)
waivers, CARB cannot ``adopt or attempt to enforce'' the corresponding
on-road mobile source regulations.\102\ Thus, Congress' disapproval of
the waivers means that the corresponding California regulations are no
longer enforceable, and the attributed emissions reductions cannot be
credited in the baseline emissions projections or, in the case of the
Advanced Clean Cars II Regulation, towards meeting CARB's aggregate
emission reductions commitments. The partial disapproval by the EPA of
the HD I/M Regulation means that the emission reductions attributed to
the disapproved portion of the regulation are no longer federally
enforceable and thus are not creditable as part of the baseline
emissions projections. CARB's repeal of the In-Use Locomotive
Regulation and partial repeal of the ACF Regulation, which also never
received a waiver of preemption in its original form, affect the
State's control strategy commitments because they can no longer be
relied upon to contribute emissions reductions towards CARB's aggregate
emission reduction commitments for the San Joaquin Valley.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\102\ CAA section 209(a).
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In light of these events, CARB developed, adopted, and submitted
the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision to revise the baseline emissions
projections and control strategies for the ozone nonattainment areas
classified as Extreme for the 2015 ozone NAAQS, including the San
Joaquin Valley. For the San Joaquin Valley, CARB revised the baseline
emissions projections to account for Congress' disapprovals of the
previously issued waivers for the ACT Regulation, Heavy-Duty Warranty
Phase 1, Zero-Emission Airport Shuttle Regulation, and Omnibus Low
NO<INF>X</INF> Program and the EPA's partial disapproval of the HD I/M
Regulation. CARB made this revision by removing the future year
emissions reductions attributed to the ACT Regulation, Heavy-Duty
Warranty Phase 1, Zero-Emission Airport Shuttle Regulation,\103\ and
Omnibus Low NO<INF>X</INF> Program, as well as the HD I/M Regulation
with respect to vehicles registered out-of-state.
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\103\ While Congress also disapproved the previously issued
waiver for the Zero-Emission Powertrain Certification Regulation,
that regulation supported the implementation of other truck
regulations but did not, in itself, achieve emission reductions. See
Public Law 119-15, 139 Stat. 65 (2025). Therefore, there were no
emission reductions to remove from the baseline emission reductions
with respect to this regulation.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
With respect to the State's control strategy commitments, CARB
revised or eliminated certain defined measures and revised the
aggregate emission reduction commitment for the attainment year (2037)
in two steps. In the first step (as adopted in the 2026 Extreme Ozone
SIP Revision), CARB
[[Page 69925]]
narrowed the scope of the ACF Regulation to apply only to State and
local government fleets and eliminated the Advanced Clean Cars II, and
In-Use Locomotive control measure commitments. In addition, CARB
revised the descriptions of certain other defined measures, including
those related to on-road heavy-duty trucks, commercial harbor craft,
off-road vehicles and equipment, and space and water heaters.
Taking into account the modeled attainment emissions inventory and
revisions to the baseline emissions projections and defined control
measure commitments, CARB revised its prior emission reductions
commitment that had been adopted for the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan. The
revised commitment is to achieve aggregate emissions reductions of 36.9
tpd of NO<INF>X</INF> and 4.7 tpd of VOC in the San Joaquin Valley by
2037, including a subset for which CARB requests approval under CAA
section 182(e)(5) of 24.3 tpd of NO<INF>X</INF> and 1.8 tpd of VOC,
based on measures identified in the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision or
the 2022 State SIP Strategy.\104\
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\104\ CARB Resolution 26-5, page 7.
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In the second step, in adopting the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP
Revision, CARB directed the CARB Executive Officer to work with the EPA
and take appropriate action to resolve any approvability issues that
may arise regarding the submissions, including the action to revise the
commitments that rely on CAA section 182(e)(5), and to address any
deficit in the reductions needed to demonstrate attainment, RFP, or
other SIP elements.\105\ As duly authorized, CARB's Executive Officer
eliminated further control measure commitments for the San Joaquin
Valley (such as those for the remaining portion of the ACF Regulation
and Commercial Harbor Craft Amendments control measure commitments) and
revised the subset of the aggregate emission reduction commitment for
the San Joaquin Valley for which CARB requests approval under CAA
section 182(e)(5) to 31.2 tpd of NO<INF>X</INF> and 4.0 tpd of
VOC.\106\ In support of the commitments to the extent they rely on CAA
section 182(e)(5), CARB committed to submit contingency measures to the
EPA, no later than three years before proposed implementation of the
CAA section 182(e)(5) plan provisions, to be implemented if the
anticipated technologies do not achieve planned reductions.\107\
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\105\ Id., page 8.
\106\ CARB Executive Order S-26-006, September 23, 2026, page 5.
\107\ CARB Resolution 26-5, page 8.
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Lastly, in adopting the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision, CARB
included a mechanism in Resolution 26-5 to increase its aggregate
emission reduction commitment if the EPA does not approve or act upon
any CARB regulation currently pending before the EPA for approval into
the California SIP, including as needed to meet requirements for RFP,
emissions inventories, or other plan elements, prior to taking action
on the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision.\108\ The SORE Amendments are
one such CARB regulation for which the EPA will not take final action
prior to final action on the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision as it
pertains to the San Joaquin Valley, and whose emission reductions are
not federally enforceable (absent approval into the California SIP) and
therefore not creditable as part of the future baseline emissions
inventories.
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\108\ Id.
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CARB retained emissions reductions attributed to the SORE
Amendments in the baseline emissions projections of the 2026 Extreme
Ozone SIP Revision. CARB estimates that the emission reductions
attributable to the SORE Amendments are approximately 1.24 tpd of
NO<INF>X</INF> and 8.93 tpd of VOC in the San Joaquin Valley in
2037.\109\ Realigning the emissions reductions attributable to the SORE
Amendments from the baseline projection to the aggregate emission
reduction commitment, as allowed under CARB Resolution 26-5, CARB's
aggregate emission reduction commitment for the San Joaquin Valley
would increase to 38.1 tpd of NO<INF>X</INF> and 13.6 tpd of VOC in the
San Joaquin Valley in 2037, including a subset for which CARB requests
approval under CAA section 182(e)(5) of 32.4 tpd of NO<INF>X</INF> and
12.9 tpd of VOC, based on measures identified in the 2026 Extreme Ozone
SIP Revision or the 2022 State SIP Strategy.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\109\ Email dated June 4, 2026, from Ariel Fideldy, Chief, Air
Quality Planning Branch, CARB to Karina O'Connor, Manager, Air
Planning Section, Air and Radiation Division, EPA Region IX.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
c. Attainment Demonstration
Table 3 of this document summarizes the State's attainment
demonstration for the 2015 ozone NAAQS by 2037 in the San Joaquin
Valley. For completeness, we include the 2017 base year emissions
(which are required for base year emissions purposes, as described in
section II.C of this document, and for RFP purposes, as described in
section II.F of this document) and the 2018 base year emissions
inventory (which the State used for attainment demonstration modeling,
as described in section II.E.2.a of this document). Based on the
modeled emissions reductions (from 2018 through 2037) necessary to
demonstrate attainment, we then present the components of the State's
control strategy that would achieve such reductions to demonstrate
attainment.
Overall, the State's baseline control strategy, as revised by the
2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision and CARB Executive Order S-26-006 and
accounting for the emissions reductions attributable to the SORE
Amendments as part of CARB's commitments, is projected based on
information submitted by the State to achieve 76 percent of the
NO<INF>X</INF> reductions (121.7 tpd/159.8 tpd) and 63 percent of the
VOC reductions (23.5 tpd/37.1 tpd) necessary to attain. The State
commits to achieve aggregate emission reductions for the remaining 24
percent of the NO<INF>X</INF> reductions and 37 percent of the VOC
reductions necessary to attain.
[[Page 69926]]
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP05NO26.000
3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
a. Photochemical Modeling
As discussed in section II.C of this document, we propose to
approve the base year emissions inventory and to find--with certain
exceptions discussed herein--that the baseline future year emissions
inventories in the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, as revised by the 2026 Extreme
Ozone SIP Revision, reflect appropriate calculation methods and that
the latest planning assumptions are properly supported by SIP-approved
stationary and mobile source control measures. As such, we propose to
find that the use of the baseline future year emissions inventories for
modeling purposes is appropriate. In the following paragraphs, we
address our findings for the modeling submitted with the SJV 2022 Ozone
Plan.
Based on our review of Appendix F of the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, the
EPA finds that the photochemical modeling is adequate for purposes of
supporting the attainment demonstration. We present greater detail of
our review of the plan's modeling and attainment demonstration in the
EPA's ``Technical Support Document, EPA Review of Attainment Modeling
in the San Joaquin Valley 2022 Ozone Plan for the 2015 Ozone NAAQS,''
October 2026 (``EPA's Modeling TSD''). First, we note the extensive
discussion of modeling procedures, tests, and performance analyses in
the Methodology section of Attachment F and the good model performance.
Second, we find the WRF meteorological model results and performance
statistics, including hourly time series graphs of wind speed,
direction, and temperature for the San Joaquin Valley to be
satisfactory and consistent with our Modeling Guidance.\110\
Performance for wind speed, temperature, and relative humidity was
evaluated from April to October 2018.\111\ Geographically, model
performance is evaluated across the northern, central, and southern San
Joaquin Valley subregions. Accurate meteorological predictions in this
region are important in simulating chemical transport in the San
Joaquin Valley air basin. Overall, the WRF simulation provided
reasonable meteorological fields comparable to other WRF modeling
studies and is sufficient for the attainment demonstration.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\110\ Modeling Guidance, 30.
\111\ Temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were
evaluated in terms of mean bias, mean error, and index of agreement.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The model performance statistics for ozone are described in
Appendix F, section F.3.3 and are based on the statistical evaluation
recommended in the Modeling Guidance. Model performance for 8-hour
daily maximum ozone in the San Joaquin Valley was evaluated separately
for the northern, central, and southern San Joaquin Valley subregions.
A geographical and temporal bias is shown in the time series, which
sufficiently captures the variability in the maximum daily eight-hour
average ozone concentration, with a slight negative bias across the San
Joaquin Valley, exhibiting some spatial variability among subregions,
including
[[Page 69927]]
smaller biases in the northern San Joaquin Valley and larger biases in
the central and southern San Joaquin Valley in the monitor-based
evaluations.
The SJV 2022 Ozone Plan presents scatter plots of monitored and
modeled ozone concentrations that also suggest generally good
correspondence between modeled and observed concentrations across all
San Joaquin Valley subregions. This correspondence reflects the model's
capability of reliably predicting the overall magnitude and variability
of ozone concentrations, including the higher concentrations that
contribute to the top ten days that form the basis for the RRF
calculation. While some scatter and bias are present, including a
tendency to overpredict at higher concentrations in certain subregions,
this does not mean that future concentrations will be overestimated. In
addition, the weight of evidence analysis presented in Attachment H of
the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan provides additional information with respect to
the sensitivity to emissions changes and further supports the model
performance. We propose to find the air quality modeling adequate to
support the attainment demonstration for the 2015 ozone NAAQS, based on
reasonable meteorological and ozone modeling performance, and as
supported by the weight of evidence analysis. For additional
information regarding the EPA's analysis, please see the EPA's Modeling
TSD for this proposed action.
b. Control Strategy
As part of our attainment demonstration review, we must evaluate
whether the emission reductions provided by the plan and associated
control measures are creditable and sufficient to provide for
attainment. We have reviewed the State's submissions for demonstrating
attainment of the 2015 ozone NAAQS in the San Joaquin Valley, including
the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan and the 2022 State SIP Strategy, which provide
the foundations for the State's attainment demonstration for the 2015
ozone NAAQS in the San Joaquin Valley (e.g., baseline control strategy
and emissions inventory, photochemical modeling, and the need for
further NO<INF>X</INF> and VOC emission reductions), and the 2026
Extreme Ozone SIP Revision and related submission materials, which
respond to intervening events and substantially revise the State's
control strategy.
We first present our evaluation of the State's baseline control
strategy, including CARB's revisions to its mobile source control
strategy and consideration of baseline District rule SIP submissions
that are pending EPA action. We then present our evaluation of the
State's aggregate emission reduction commitments, including CAA section
182(e)(5) new technology provisions and remaining control measure
commitments.
i. Baseline Control Strategy
As described in section II.E.2.c of this document, the State's
baseline control strategy would achieve a majority of the
NO<INF>X</INF> and VOC emission reductions necessary to attain the 2015
ozone NAAQS in the San Joaquin Valley. Further, as noted in section
II.D.3 of this document, the control measures within the State's
baseline control strategy have--with certain exceptions discussed in
the following paragraphs--been approved into the California SIP.
First, as shown in Table 2 of this document, we have approved most
of the District's control measures relied upon as baseline measures.
The exceptions relate to recent amendments to five District rules. In
Table 4, we list these rules, the dates on which the rules were amended
and submitted for approval as part of the California SIP, and the
emissions reductions attributable to each that are not currently SIP-
creditable. We further discuss our evaluation of these rules in the
EPA's District Rules and Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets TSD.
Table 4--District Control Measure SIP Submissions Pending EPA Action Whose Emission Reductions Are Not Currently
SIP-Creditable for the SJV 70 ppb Ozone SIP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimated non-SIP creditable
Rule No. Rule title Amended Submitted emission reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4306.................... Boilers, Steam Generators, 12/17/2020 3/12/2021 0.22 tpd NOX by 2030.\a\
and Process Heaters--Phase
3.
4352.................... Solid Fuel Fired Boilers, 12/16/2021 3/9/2022 2.4 tpd NOX and 0.3 tpd VOC in
Steam Generators, and 2037 (for Rules 4352, 4354,
Process Heaters. and 4702).\b\
4354.................... Glass Melting Furnaces..... 12/16/2021 3/9/2022
4702.................... Internal Combustion Engines 8/19/2021 10/15/2021
4905.................... Natural Gas-Fired, Fan-Type 3/21/2024 5/7/2024 0.50 tpd NOX by 2037.\c\
Central Furnaces.
Total: approximately 3.1 tpd
NOX and 0.3 tpd VOC (Note:
This sum mixes estimates for
different years and is,
therefore, imprecise.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ Memorandum dated December 17, 2020, from Samir Sheikh, Executive Director, Project Coordinator: Jonathan
Klassen, to SJVUAPCD Governing Board, ``RE: Item Number 13: Adopt Proposed Amendments to Rule 4306 (Boilers,
Steam Generators, and Process Heaters--Phase 3) and Rule 4320 (Advanced Emission Reduction Options for
Boilers, Steam Generators, and Process Heaters Greater Than 5.0 MMBtu/hr),'' page 2. The District estimates
that the 2020 amendments to Rule 4320 would achieve an additional 0.45 tpd NOX emission reductions in 2024 but
has not sought SIP credit for such reductions as part of the rule or plan SIP submissions.
\b\ Email dated September 18, 2026, from Ariel Fideldy, Chief, Air Quality Planning Branch, CARB, to Rory Mays,
EPA Region IX. See further discussion in the EPA's District Rules and Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets TSD,
pages 2 through 3.
\c\ EPA's District Rules and Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets TSD, pages 3 through 5.
The EPA intends to take action on the amended District rules listed
in Table 4 but does not anticipate doing so prior to final action on
the SJV 70 ppb Ozone SIP. To be credited in baseline emissions
projections, the amended rules must be approved as part of the SIP and
thereby made federally enforceable. Because the five amended rules
listed in Table 4 will likely not be approved by the time the EPA takes
final action on the SJV 70 ppb Ozone SIP, we have removed approximately
3.1 tpd NO<INF>X</INF> and 0.3 tpd VOC emission reductions that are
collectively attributable to them from the baseline control strategy
for the attainment demonstration.
Second, as discussed in section II.C.3 of this document, we propose
to find that the revised baseline emission projections in the 2026
Extreme Ozone SIP Revision appropriately reflect Congress's enactment
of statutes disapproving the waivers previously
[[Page 69928]]
issued by the EPA for the ACT Regulation, Heavy-Duty Warranty Phase 1,
Zero-Emission Airport Shuttle Regulation, and Omnibus Low
NO<INF>X</INF> Program and the EPA's partial disapproval of CARB's HD
I/M Regulation. However, we note that the baseline emission projections
reflect reductions from two additional CARB control measures that have
not been approved as part of the California SIP.
The 2021 through 2022 Amendments to the Consumer Products
Regulations and Method 310 are one of the control measures not yet
approved as part of the California SIP, but we are proposing to approve
the amendments, as described in section III of this document. If we
finalize approval of the amendments as proposed, then they will become
federally enforceable and creditable as part of the baseline emissions
projections for the attainment demonstration.
For the other control measure not yet approved into the California
SIP--the SORE Amendments--CARB included a mechanism through Resolution
26-5 to increase its aggregate emission reduction commitments if the
EPA does not approve or act upon on any CARB regulation currently
pending before the EPA for approval into the California SIP prior to
taking action on the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision.\112\ Through this
mechanism, we have added the emissions reductions attributable to the
SORE Amendments to CARB's aggregate emissions reduction commitments--
specifically the portion of those commitments for which CARB requests
approval under CAA section 182(e)(5). By re-aligning the emissions
reductions attributable to the SORE Amendments from the baseline
control strategy to the control strategy commitments, we propose to
find that CARB has adequately accounted for the reductions necessary to
demonstrate attainment. In other words, the emissions reductions
previously attributed by the State to the SORE Amendments are no longer
considered to be in the baseline control strategy, but to cover the
associated shortfall in reductions needed to demonstrate attainment,
CARB has provided a mechanism that increases its emission reduction
commitments in the event that the SORE Amendments are not approved into
the SIP by the time the EPA takes action on the SJV 70 ppb Ozone SIP.
In this way, the SJV 70 ppb Ozone SIP adequately accounts for
reductions necessary to demonstrate attainment whether or not the SORE
Amendments are approved into the SIP prior to the EPA's action on the
SIP submission.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\112\ CARB Resolution 26-5, page 8.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
ii. Control Strategy Commitments
Through adoption of the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, the District committed
to evaluate and implement LDAR enhancements or to broaden applicability
for sources regulated under six District rules. The subject rules,
Rules 4401, 4402, 4409, 4455, 4623, and 4624, apply to certain sources
in the oil and gas sector. To date, the District has amended all six
rules, and CARB has submitted all six rules for approval as part of the
California SIP. The EPA has approved three of the amended rules (Rules
4401, 4409, and 4623) into the California SIP.\113\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\113\ 91 FR 31918 (May 29, 2026).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The District adopted the amended rules as SIP-strengthening
measures and did not include the associated emissions reductions in the
attainment demonstration. Collectively, the District estimates that the
three approved amended rules would reduce VOC emissions by
approximately 0.89 tpd.\114\ Because the emissions reductions from the
amended District Rules 4401, 4409, and 4623 are not included in
baseline emissions projections or relied upon for RFP or attainment
demonstration purposes, they are available to offset shortfalls in the
baseline control strategy. The District estimates that the three
amended District rules that have not yet been approved would further
reduce VOC emissions by approximately 0.2 tpd.\115\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\114\ SJVUAPCD Memo, ``Item Number 12: Adopted Proposed
Amendments to District Leak Detection and Repair rules 4401, 4409,
4455, 4623, and 4624, June 15, 2023, page 4. See also, SJVUAPCD
Final Draft Staff Report accompanying that memo: ``Proposed
Amendments to Rule 4401 (Steam-Enhanced Crude Oil Production Wells),
Proposed Amendments to Rule 4409 (Components at Light Crude Oil
Production Facilities, Natural Gas Production Facilities, and
Natural Gas Processing Facilities), Proposed Amendments to Rule 4455
(Components at Petroleum Refineries, Gas Liquids Processing
Facilities, and Chemical Plants), Proposed Amendments to Rule 4623
(Storage of Organic Liquids), Proposed Amendments to Rule 4624
(Transfer of Organic Liquid),'' June 15, 2023.
\115\ Id.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The attainment demonstration of the SJV 70 ppb Ozone SIP relies on
enforceable commitments by CARB to attain the 2015 ozone NAAQS in the
San Joaquin Valley in 2037. As shown in Table 3 of this document, the
SJV 70 ppb Ozone SIP relies on adopted measures to achieve the majority
of the emissions reductions needed to attain the 2015 Ozone NAAQS by
2037. The balance of the reductions needed for attainment is in the
form of enforceable commitments to take certain specific regulatory and
nonregulatory actions within prescribed periods and to achieve
aggregate emission reductions of NO<INF>X</INF> and VOC in the San
Joaquin Valley in 2037. The enforceable commitments made by CARB
through adoption of the SJV 70 ppb Ozone SIP are similar to the
enforceable commitments that the EPA has approved as part of attainment
demonstrations in previous California air quality plans.\116\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\116\ See, e.g., 77 FR 12652 (Mar. 1, 2012) (final approval of
San Joaquin Valley plan for the 1997 ozone NAAQS); 76 FR 69896 (Nov.
9, 2011) (final approval of the San Joaquin Valley plan for the 1997
PM<INF>2.5</INF> NAAQS); and 79 FR 52526 (Sep. 3, 2014) (final
approval of South Coast plan for the 1979 1-hour ozone NAAQS).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The EPA has previously accepted enforceable commitments in lieu of
adopted control measures in attainment demonstrations when the
circumstances warrant them and when the commitments meet specific
criteria. We believe that, with respect to the 2015 ozone NAAQS in the
San Joaquin Valley, circumstances warrant the consideration of
enforceable commitments as part of the attainment demonstration. First,
as shown in Table 3 of this document, a substantial portion of the
emission reductions needed to demonstrate attainment in the San Joaquin
Valley come from measures adopted prior to adoption and submittal of
the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan. As a result of these State and District
efforts, most emissions sources in the San Joaquin Valley are currently
subject to stringent emission limitations and other requirements,
leaving fewer and more technologically challenging opportunities to
further reduce emissions. In the 2022 State SIP Strategy, CARB
identified potential control measures that could provide many of the
additional emissions reductions needed for attainment. However, the
timeline needed to develop, adopt, and implement these measures went
beyond the required submittal date for the attainment demonstration for
the San Joaquin Valley for the 2015 ozone NAAQS. These circumstances
warrant CARB's reliance on enforceable commitments as part of the
attainment demonstration for the 2015 ozone NAAQS.
Given the State's demonstrated need for reliance on enforceable
commitments, we consider the three factors the EPA uses to determine
whether the use of enforceable commitments in lieu of adopted measures
to meet CAA planning requirements is approvable: (a) Does the
commitment address a limited portion of the statutorily-required
program; (b) is the State capable of fulfilling its
[[Page 69929]]
commitment; and (c) is the commitment for a reasonable and appropriate
period of time.
For the first factor, we look to see if the commitment addresses a
limited portion of a statutory requirement such as the amount of
emissions reductions needed to demonstrate attainment of the NAAQS in a
nonattainment area. For this calculation, reductions assigned to the
CAA section 182(e)(5) new technologies provisions are not counted as
commitments.\117\ Table 3 of this document shows emission reductions
needed to demonstrate attainment of the 2015 ozone NAAQS in the San
Joaquin Valley and the aggregate emissions reductions commitment by
CARB. Based on these values, we have calculated the percent of required
reductions that would come from enforceable commitments by CARB (other
than new technology measures).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\117\ CAA section 182(e)(5) specifically allows the EPA to
approve an attainment demonstration that relies on reductions from
new technologies. This provision is separate from the requirement in
CAA section 172(c)(6) for enforceable emission limitations under
which enforceable commitments are considered. As a result,
reductions attributed to the attainment demonstration to new
technologies are not considered part of the State's enforceable
commitments for purposes of determining the percentage of reductions
needed for attainment that remain as commitments.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
When compared to the total reductions needed to demonstrate
attainment (excluding the CAA section 182(e)(5) reductions in the
attainment demonstration), the remaining portion of the enforceable
commitments represents approximately four percent of the reductions
needed for NO<INF>X</INF> and two percent of the reductions needed for
VOC. Historically, the EPA has approved SIPs with enforceable
commitments in the range of approximately 10 percent of the total
needed reductions for attainment.\118\ Thus, we find that CARB's
enforceable commitments in the SJV 70 ppb Ozone SIP address a limited
portion of the required emission reductions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\118\ See, e.g., the EPA's approval of the following plans: San
Joaquin Valley plans for the 1987 p.m.<INF>10</INF> NAAQS at 69 FR
30005 (May 26, 2004), and the 1979 1-hour ozone NAAQS at 75 FR 10420
(Mar. 8, 2010); Houston-Galveston plan for the 1979 1-hour ozone
NAAQS at 66 FR 57160 (Nov. 14, 2001); and South Coast plans for the
1979 1-hour ozone NAAQS at 79 FR 52526 (Sep. 3, 2014) and 1997 ozone
NAAQS at 77 FR 12674 (Mar. 1, 2012).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
For the second factor, we consider whether CARB is capable of
fulfilling its enforceable commitments. In this instance, the
enforceable emission reductions commitment is 5.7 tpd of NO<INF>X</INF>
and 0.7 tpd of VOC in the San Joaquin Valley in 2037. We propose to
approve four of the defined measures that CARB is relying on to meet
its commitments. Table 5 of this document lists the four defined
measures and CARB estimated emissions reductions for each. We note that
the emissions estimates shown in Table 5 are only estimates and are not
binding on CARB under the terms of the commitments CARB has made for
the 2022 State SIP Strategy, as revised by the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP
Revision. Rather, CARB has committed to take certain regulatory and
nonregulatory actions according to the schedule in the 2022 State SIP
Strategy or, as applicable, the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision and to
achieve enforceable emission reductions in 2037. The reductions from
any one measure in Table 5 could be more or less than the estimates
shown.
Table 5--Defined Measures in the SJV 70 ppb Ozone SIP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimated NOX Estimated VOC
Implementation emission emission
Measure Adoption timeframe Agency reductions in reductions in
2037 (tpd) 2037 (tpd)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Heavy-Duty Trucks Strategy \a\.. 2028+ 2030+ CARB 5.7 0.3
Consumer Products Standards \b\. 2027 2028 CARB .............. NYQ
Enhanced Regional Emission 2025 2023+ CARB NYQ NYQ
Analysis in SIPs \b\...........
Pesticides: 1,3-Dichloropropene 2022 2024 California .............. 0.4
Health Risk Mitigation \b\..... Department of
Pesticide
Regulation
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Emission Reductions....... 5.7 0.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision, pages 14 through 15.
\b\ 2022 State SIP Strategy, pages 73 through 75 (Enhanced Regional Analysis in SIPs), pages 97 through 100
(Consumer Products Standards), and pages 104 through 105 (Pesticides: 1,3-Dichloropropene Health Risk
Mitigation).
Note: NYQ means not yet quantified. A double dash (--) refers to zero or de minimis reductions.
California DPR has already adopted the regulation anticipated under
the defined measure to mitigate health risks associated with the use of
the pesticide 1,3-Dichloropropene. CARB estimates that the adopted
regulation will provide 0.4 tpd of VOC reductions in the San Joaquin
Valley by 2037. We anticipate that the balance of the commitment for
VOC reductions would be achieved through CARB's fulfillment of the
defined measure for consumer products standards. Based on the estimates
in the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision for the South Coast from future
amendments to consumer products regulations and the relative
populations of the San Joaquin Valley and the South Coast, we expect
that the measure would achieve approximately 2.0 tpd of VOC reductions
in the San Joaquin Valley by 2037.\119\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\119\ CARB estimates that the future consumer products standards
may achieve 8 tpd VOC emission reductions in the South Coast
nonattainment area in 2037. 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision, page
24. Population estimates for 2020 are 4.2 million and 16.4 million
for the San Joaquin Valley and South Coast nonattainment areas,
respectively.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
For NO<INF>X</INF>, CARB expects to achieve the emissions
reductions through actions taken under their Heavy-Duty Trucks
Strategy. The proposed actions that CARB anticipates taking under the
Heavy-Duty Trucks Strategy could include actions such as: \120\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\120\ CARB Executive Order S-26-006, Attachment A. See also,
2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision, pages 14 through 15.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
<bullet> Cleaner new engine certification standards similar to the
January 2023 Heavy-Duty Final Rule; \121\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\121\ 88 FR 4296 (Jan. 24, 2023). In the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP
Revision, CARB refers to this rule as the ``Federal Clean Trucks
Plan NO<INF>X</INF> Rule.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
<bullet> Development of new methods for reducing real-world
emissions to maintain emissions reductions throughout a vehicle's
lifetime;
<bullet> Turnover of in-use vehicles to cleaner technologies at the
end of their useful life; and
[[Page 69930]]
<bullet> Establishing regions/zones where cleaner vehicle
technologies are used.
We believe that CARB could take appropriate actions under this list
but note that CARB's authority for, and the appropriateness of, any
particular action would turn on the specific content of the
requirements and necessitate case-by-case evaluation. In addition,
while we expect these actions to achieve most if not all the emissions
reductions anticipated by CARB from this measure, we also note that the
enforceable commitment by CARB to achieve emissions reductions
anticipates other means to meet or revise the obligation. For instance,
if actual emissions decreases occur that exceed the projections
reflected in the current emission inventory, CARB could submit an
updated emissions inventory to the EPA as part of a SIP revision.\122\
CARB indicates that the SIP revision would outline the changes that
have occurred and provide appropriate tracking to demonstrate that
aggregate emissions reductions sufficient for attainment are being
achieved through enforceable emissions reduction measures.\123\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\122\ 2022 State SIP Strategy, page 33.
\123\ Id.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In this case, the 2037 NO<INF>X</INF> motor vehicle emissions
budgets in the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision for the San Joaquin
Valley, for which we are proposing approval herein, are 5.4 tpd lower
than the on-road motor vehicle emissions estimates relied upon to
develop the attainment demonstration.\124\ If the Heavy-Duty Truck
Strategy does not achieve the anticipated 5.7 tpd of NO<INF>X</INF>
emissions reductions, CARB could revise its commitment through a SIP
revision that incorporates the lower on-road emissions estimates
reflected in the motor vehicle emissions budgets.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\124\ Compare the 2037 NO<INF>X</INF> on-road emissions estimate
in Table 14 of the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision (32.37 tpd) with
the corresponding motor vehicle emissions budgets in Table 17 of the
2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision (27.0 tpd).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thus, we believe that CARB is capable of meeting its enforceable
commitments to adopt measures that will reduce emissions to the levels
needed to attain the 2015 ozone NAAQS in the San Joaquin Valley by
2037.
For the third factor, we consider whether the commitment is for a
reasonable and appropriate period of time. To meet the commitments to
reduce emissions to the levels needed to attain the 2015 ozone NAAQS in
the San Joaquin Valley, CARB has committed to pursue the measures or
otherwise address each measure as described in the 2022 State SIP
Strategy by the dates specified in Attachment A to CARB Resolution 22-
14. With respect to the Consumer Products Standards measure, CARB has
committed to bring the measure to the CARB Board by 2027 with
implementation beginning in 2028. Under the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP
Revision, CARB has committed to begin bringing measures to the Board
under the Heavy-Duty Trucks Strategy in 2028 with implementation
beginning in 2030.\125\ As noted previously, the measure related to
reduced health risk associated with 1,3-Dichloropropoene pesticides has
already been adopted.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\125\ 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision, page 15.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
We believe that the schedule to bring the measures to the CARB
Board is appropriate given the technological and economic challenges
associated with the measures and given the procedures under State law
for development and adoption of these measures. In addition, these
reductions are not needed to meet RFP milestones for the 2015 ozone
NAAQS and the adoption timeframe ensures adequate time for
implementation by 2037. Thus, the commitments are for a reasonable and
appropriate period of time.
For ozone nonattainment areas classified as Extreme, the CAA
recognizes that an attainment demonstration may need to rely to a
certain extent on new or evolving technologies, given the long time
period between developing the initial plan and attaining the standard,
and the degree of emissions reductions needed to attain. To address
these needs, CAA section 182(e)(5) authorizes the EPA to approve
provisions in an Extreme area plan that ``anticipate development of new
control techniques or improvement of existing control technologies''
and to approve an attainment demonstration based on such provisions if
the State demonstrates that: ``(A) such provisions are not necessary to
achieve the incremental emission reductions required during the first
10 years after November 15, 1990; and (B) the State has submitted
enforceable commitments to develop and adopt contingency measures to be
implemented . . . if the anticipated technologies do not achieve the
planned reductions.'' The State must submit these contingency measures
to the EPA no later than three years before the proposed implementation
of these long-term measures and the contingency measures must be
``adequate to produce emission reductions sufficient, in conjunction
with other approved plan provisions, to achieve the periodic emission
reductions required by [CAA sections 182(b)(1) or (c)(2)] and
attainment by the applicable dates.''
The General Preamble further provides that the new technology
measures contemplated by CAA section 182(e)(5) may include those that
anticipate future technological developments as well as those that
require complex analyses, decision making, and coordination among a
number of government agencies.\126\ An attainment demonstration that
relies on long-term new technology measures under CAA section 182(e)(5)
must identify any such measures and contain a schedule outlining the
steps leading to final development and adoption of the measures.\127\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\126\ General Preamble, 57 FR 13498, 13524 (Apr. 16, 1992).
\127\ Id.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
CARB has demonstrated a clear need for emissions reductions from
new and improved control technologies to reduce air pollution in the
San Joaquin Valley. The adopted control measures and enforceable
commitments, discussed above, provide the majority, but not all, of the
balance of the emissions reductions needed to attain the 2015 ozone
NAAQS by 2037. Through adoption of the SJV 70 ppb Ozone SIP, CARB
commits to achieve aggregate emissions reductions from a combination of
defined and new technology measures of 36.9 tpd of NO<INF>X</INF> and
4.7 tpd of VOC in the San Joaquin Valley in 2037, including a subset
for which CARB requests approval under the CAA section 182(e)(5)
provision of 31.2 tpd of NO<INF>X</INF> and 4.0 tpd of VOC.\128\
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\128\ CARB Executive Order S-26-006, September 23, 2026, page 5.
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As discussed in this document, in adopting the 2026 Extreme Ozone
SIP Revision, CARB adopted a provision under which CARB commits to
achieve additional emissions reductions associated with CARB
regulations that are relied upon to meet requirements for RFP,
emissions inventories, or other plan elements and that have been
submitted to the EPA but for which the EPA has not taken final action.
CARB's SORE Amendments are one set of CARB regulations that fit in that
category because they were submitted but remain pending action by the
EPA. As such, consistent with CARB Resolution 26-5, we removed the
emission reductions from the SORE Amendments from the future baseline
emissions inventories and added them to the commitment related to the
CAA section 182(e)(5) new technology provisions. In light of this
realignment of emission reductions to the new technology provisions,
CARB's aggregate emissions reduction commitments from the combination
of defined and new technology measures is
[[Page 69931]]
38.1 tpd of NO<INF>X</INF> and 13.6 tpd of VOC in the San Joaquin
Valley in 2037, including a subset for which CARB requests approval
under the CAA section 182(e)(5) provision of 32.4 tpd of NO<INF>X</INF>
and 12.9 tpd of VOC, accounting for the estimated emissions reductions
attributable to the SORE Amendments. To be clear, we are not proposing
to approve the SORE Amendments into the SIP at this time, but rather to
approve the SJV 70 ppb Ozone SIP revision in light of California's
enforceable commitments, which adequately account for a future with or
without the SORE Amendments being approved into the SIP and detail the
future steps that would be taken under both eventualities.
The EPA proposes to find that the SJV 70 ppb Ozone SIP does not
rely on the new technology measure reductions until the attainment year
(2037) and, thus, does not rely on them to achieve RFP milestones for
the first 10 years after designation (for the 2015 ozone NAAQS). Also,
we propose to find CARB's description of the new technology measures in
the 2022 State SIP Strategy, as revised in the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP
Revision, to be adequate. Lastly, through CARB Resolution 26-5, CARB
has committed to submit contingency measures to the EPA no later than
three years before proposed implementation of the plan provisions to be
implemented if the anticipated technologies do not achieve planned
reductions.\129\ In the case of the San Joaquin Valley, because the
attainment demonstration relies on emissions reductions from new
technology measures in the attainment year, CARB must submit
contingency measures to cover any expected shortfall in reductions from
those measures by January 1, 2034. We propose to find that CARB's
commitment complies with the corresponding criterion in CAA section
182(e)(5).
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\129\ CARB Resolution 26-5, July 23, 2026, page 8; and CARB
Executive Order S-26-006, September 23, 2026, page 5.
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c. Attainment Demonstration
To tie the EPA's evaluation together, we reiterate our conclusions
with respect to the State's photochemical modeling, baseline control
strategy, and aggregate emission reduction commitments (including CAA
section 182(e)(5) new technology provisions and remaining control
measure commitments) and describe additional emission reduction factors
and modeling analysis that contribute to our review of the State's
attainment demonstration for the 2015 ozone NAAQS in the San Joaquin
Valley.
The EPA proposes to find that the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan's
photochemical modeling is adequate to support the attainment
demonstration for the 2015 ozone NAAQS in the San Joaquin Valley.
We must find that the emissions reductions that are relied on for
attainment are creditable and are sufficient to provide for attainment.
In section III.E.3.b of this document, we noted that we are proposing
to approve four defined control measure commitments and explained how
CARB's enforceable emissions reduction commitments were adequately
justified and supported either by commitments to bring regulatory or
nonregulatory initiatives to the CARB Board on a prescribed scheduled
to meet aggregate emissions reduction commitments for 2037 or by
commitments to submit contingency measures as necessary to cover any
shortfall in emissions reductions anticipated to be achieved through
implementation of new technology provisions.
The only reductions that are relied upon by the attainment
demonstration that are not already approved as part of the SIP or
supported by CARB commitments are the reductions included in the
baseline from certain adopted and submitted District rule amendments
for which the EPA has not taken final action. These rule amendments
listed in Table 3 of this document and the emissions reductions
attributable to these amendments are approximately 3.1 tpd of
NO<INF>X</INF> and 0.3 tpd of VOC in 2037.
With respect to the VOC emissions reductions, we note that District
amendments to Rules 4401, 4409, and 4623 are not reflected in the
baseline strategy or relied upon specifically for the attainment
demonstration, and they have been approved into the SIP and provide
more emissions reductions (0.9 tpd) than anticipated from the five
District rule amendments for which the EPA has not taken action. Thus,
there is no shortfall in the control strategy with respect to VOC
emissions reductions.
With respect to the NO<INF>X</INF> emissions reductions, the EPA
intends to take action on the amended District rules listed in Table 5
but does not anticipate doing so prior to final action on the SJV 70
ppb Ozone SIP. We anticipate that the shortfall in the emissions
reductions from the control strategy for NO<INF>X</INF> will be wholly
or partially eliminated by our action on the rule amendments if we
finalize approval as proposed herein.
Moreover, based on our review of the photochemical modeling
results, we note that the State's photochemical modeling in the SJV
2022 Ozone Plan projected that the State's control strategy would
result in the highest predicted future design value in 2037 of 68.8 ppb
at the Clovis monitor.\130\ This level is 1.2 ppb below the 2015 ozone
NAAQS level of 70 ppb (or 2.1 ppb below the level of 70.9 ppb, which
would be truncated to 70 ppb per the form of the standard).
Accordingly, we have analyzed the State's attainment demonstration
modeling to assess what additional amount of NO<INF>X</INF> could be
emitted in 2037 while still demonstrating attainment of the 2015 ozone
NAAQS. Based on a sensitivity analysis of ozone design values and
NO<INF>X</INF> emissions between 2032 and 2037 and applying a scaling
factor to translate the modeled emissions inventory into the planning
emissions inventory, we estimate that an additional 5.59 tpd
NO<INF>X</INF> emissions could theoretically still result in a modeled
demonstration of 70 ppb in 2037 in the San Joaquin Valley (or an
additional 9.78 tpd NO<INF>X</INF> emissions for a modeled
demonstration of 70.9 ppb). For further discussion of this analysis,
see section 3.2.1 of the EPA's Modeling TSD. While we do not rely on
this estimate as a precise gauge of how much NO<INF>X</INF> emission
reductions would be necessary for the San Joaquin Valley to attain the
2015 ozone NAAQS, this estimate provides another piece of evidence that
some single-digit increment of additional NO<INF>X</INF> emissions
would not prevent the demonstration of attainment in 2037.
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\130\ SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, Appendix F, page F-46 and Table 15.
We note that these projections excluded the anticipated emission
reductions from the Federal Clean Trucks Plan.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Given our review of the plan's photochemical modeling, the State's
revised control strategy (including CAA section 182(e)(5) new
technology provisions and remaining control measure commitments), and
the many related components and evaluations presented in this document,
the EPA proposes to approve the State's attainment demonstration for
the 2015 ozone NAAQS in the San Joaquin Valley, as revised by the 2026
Extreme Ozone SIP Revision and CARB Executive Order S-26-006, as
meeting the requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(6), 182(c)(2)(A), and
182(e)(5) and 40 CFR 51.1308.
F. Rate of Progress Plan and Reasonable Further Progress Demonstration
1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
Requirements for RFP for ozone nonattainment areas are specified in
[[Page 69932]]
CAA sections 172(c)(2), 182(b)(1), and 182(c)(2)(B). Under CAA section
171(1), RFP is defined as meaning such annual incremental reductions in
emissions of the relevant air pollutant as are required under CAA title
I, part D (``Plan Requirements for Nonattainment Areas'') or as may
reasonably be required by the EPA for the purpose of ensuring
attainment of the applicable NAAQS by the applicable date. CAA section
182(b)(1) specifically requires that ozone nonattainment areas
classified as Moderate or above demonstrate a 15 percent reduction in
VOC between the years 1990 and 1996. The EPA has typically referred to
CAA section 182(b)(1) as the rate of progress (ROP) requirement.
For ozone nonattainment areas classified as Serious or higher, CAA
section 182(c)(2)(B) requires VOC reductions of at least three percent
of baseline emissions per year, averaged over each consecutive three-
year period, beginning six years after the baseline year until the
attainment date. Under CAA section 182(c)(2)(C), for nonattainment
areas classified as Serious and above, a State may substitute
NO<INF>X</INF> emissions reductions for VOC emissions reductions if
such reductions would result in a reduction in ozone concentrations at
least equivalent to that which would result from the amount of VOC
emissions reductions otherwise required. Additionally, CAA section
182(c)(2)(B)(ii) allows an amount less than three percent of such
baseline emissions each year if a State demonstrates to the EPA that
its plan includes all measures that can feasibly be implemented in the
area in light of technological achievability.
In the 2015 Ozone SRR, the EPA provides that areas classified
Moderate or higher will have met the ROP requirements of CAA section
182(b)(1) if the area has a prior, fully-approved 15 percent ROP
plan.\131\ For such areas, the EPA interprets the RFP requirements of
CAA section 172(c)(2) to require areas classified as Moderate to
provide a 15 percent emissions reduction of ozone precursors within six
years of the baseline year. Areas classified as Serious or higher must
meet the RFP requirements of CAA section 182(c)(2)(B) by providing an
18 percent reduction of ozone precursors in the first 6-year period and
an average ozone precursor emissions reduction of three percent per
year for all remaining 3-year periods thereafter.\132\ The 2015 Ozone
SRR allows substitution of NO<INF>X</INF> reductions for VOC reductions
to meet the CAA section 172(c)(2) and 182(c)(2)(B) RFP
requirements.\133\
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\131\ 83 FR 62998, 63004 (Dec. 6, 2018); 40 CFR 51.1310(a)(2).
\132\ Id.
\133\ Id.; 40 CFR 51.1310(a)(2)(i)(B) and 40 CFR
51.1310(a)(2)(ii)(B).
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Except as specifically provided in CAA section 182(b)(1)(C),
emissions reductions from all SIP-approved, federally promulgated, or
otherwise SIP-creditable measures that occur after the baseline year
are creditable for purposes of demonstrating that the RFP targets are
met. Because the EPA has determined that the passage of time has caused
the effect of certain exclusions to be de minimis, the RFP
demonstration is no longer required to calculate and specifically
exclude reductions from measures related to motor vehicle exhaust or
evaporative emissions promulgated by January 1, 1990; regulations
concerning Reid vapor pressure promulgated by November 15, 1990;
measures to correct previous RACT requirements; and measures required
to correct previous inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs.\134\
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\134\ 40 CFR 51.1310(a)(7).
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The 2015 Ozone SRR requires the RFP baseline year to be the most
recent calendar year for which a complete triennial inventory was
required to be submitted to the EPA.\135\ For the purpose of developing
RFP demonstrations for the 2015 ozone NAAQS, the applicable triennial
inventory year is 2017.\136\ States may use an alternative baseline
emissions inventory provided that the year selected corresponds with
the year of the effective date of designation as nonattainment for that
NAAQS.\137\
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\135\ 40 CFR 51.1310(b).
\136\ 83 FR 62998, 63005 (December 6, 2018).
\137\ 40 CFR 51.1310(b).
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2. Summary of the State's Submission
The SJV 2022 Ozone Plan addresses the 15 percent ROP requirement by
noting that the EPA approved a 15 percent ROP plan for the 1-hour ozone
NAAQS for the San Joaquin Valley in 1997 and that the 1-hour ozone
nonattainment area covers the entire nonattainment area for the 2015
ozone standards.\138\
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\138\ SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, page 6-2.
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To address the RFP requirements, the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan selected
2017 as the RFP baseline year and provided emissions inventories for
the RFP baseline, milestone, and attainment years.\139\ The future-year
emissions inventory projections generally take into account rules and
regulations adopted through the end of 2021. The RFP demonstration in
the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan uses NO<INF>X</INF> substitution beginning in
milestone year 2023 to meet VOC emission targets and concluded that the
RFP demonstration meets the applicable requirements for each milestone
year and the attainment year.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\139\ SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, page 6-3.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The baseline emissions projections used for the RFP demonstration
in the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan were updated in the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP
Revision. The EPA has evaluated compliance with the RFP demonstration
requirement in this document on the basis of the updated RFP
demonstration included in the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision and the
documentation provided therein as well as the relevant documentation
included in the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan.
To develop the emissions inventories for remaining RFP milestone
years (2023, 2026, 2029, 2032, and 2035) and the attainment year
(2037), the District and CARB relied upon the same growth and control
factors used in the attainment demonstration, as further described in
section II.C (regarding emissions inventories) of this document. The
2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision revised the on-road motor vehicle
portion of the baseline emissions projections included in the SJV 2022
Ozone Plan that were based on EMFAC2017 to account for developments
that occurred after plan adoption, including Congress's enactment of
statutes disapproving waivers previously issued by the EPA for certain
CARB mobile source regulations and the EPA's partial disapproval of
CARB's HD I/M regulation as it applies to out-of-state registered
vehicles. The 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision did not revise the
baseline emissions projections prepared for the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan for
the other major source categories, including stationary and area-wide
sources and off-road (nonroad) vehicles and equipment.
The RFP demonstration for the San Joaquin Valley for the 2015 ozone
NAAQS is shown in Table 6 of this document. The RFP demonstration is
based on the RFP baseline emissions inventory and the revised baseline
emissions projections for the RFP milestone years and attainment year
included in the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision. CARB adjusted future
baseline emissions inventories to accommodate the EMFAC2021-derived
motor vehicle emissions budgets included in the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP
Revision and to account for emission reductions credits (ERCs)
available under the District's new source review (NSR) permitting
program for new and modified stationary sources.
[[Page 69933]]
To be conservative in the adjustment regarding the use of the
EMFAC2021 model, CARB only includes increases in emissions associated
with the EMFAC2021-derived budgets as compared with the motor vehicle
emissions estimates prepared for the baseline emissions projections
(and based on EMFAC2017 as amended to exclude emissions reductions from
regulations for which waivers have been disapproved or for which the
EPA has issued a partial disapproval).\140\ CARB did not include
emissions decreases associated with the EMFAC2021-derived budgets in
the RFP demonstration.
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\140\ 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision, pages 40 through 41.
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In addition to the EMFAC2021 adjustment, the RFP demonstration
takes into account ERCs banked prior to 2017 (i.e., the RFP baseline
year) to the extent that the expected ERC use exceeds the assumed level
of growth in emissions by the subject sources that is included in the
baseline emissions projections.\141\ Under the EPA's SIP regulations
for nonattainment NSR programs, a State may allow new major stationary
sources or major modifications to use ERCs that were generated through
shutdown or curtailed emissions units occurring before the base year of
an attainment plan. However, to use such ERCs, the projected emissions
inventory used to develop the attainment demonstration must explicitly
include the emissions from such previously shutdown or curtailed
emissions units.\142\ The District has elected to provide for use of
pre-base year ERCs as offsets by explicitly including such ERCs in the
2037 attainment year inventory.\143\ The ERC set-aside in the
attainment year (2037) is 2.43 tpd of NO<INF>X</INF>.\144\ The ERC
adjustment is only needed for NO<INF>X</INF>, not VOC. For the purposes
of the RFP demonstration, the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision accounts
for the ERC set-aside in each RFP milestone year as well as the
attainment year.
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\141\ SJV 2022 Ozone Plan, Appendix I (``New Source Review and
Emission Reduction Credits''), page I-3.
\142\ 40 CFR 51.165(a)(3)(ii)(C)(1).
\143\ 2022 Ozone Plan, Appendix F, page F-14 and Appendix G,
page G-35.
\144\ 2022 Ozone Plan, Appendix I, page I-3.
Table 6--RFP Demonstration for San Joaquin Valley for the 2015 Ozone NAAQS
[Summer planning inventory, tpd or percentage]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VOC
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2017 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2037
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline VOC Emissions (tpd)........... 325.68 305.81 296.78 292.02 290.21 290.13 291.11
EMFAC2021 Adjustment (tpd)............. ........ ........ 0.61 0.0 0.0 0.10 0.22
Adjusted Baseline VOC Emissions (tpd).. 325.68 305.81 297.39 292.02 290.21 290.23 291.33
Required Change since 2017 (percentage) ........ 18.0% 27.0% 36.0% 45.0% 54.0% 60.0%
Target VOC Level (tpd)................. ........ 267.06 237.75 208.44 179.12 149.81 130.27
Shortfall (-)/Surplus (+) in VOC (tpd). ........ -38.75 -59.64 -83.58 -111.09 -140.42 -161.05
Shortfall (-)/Surplus (+) in VOC ........ -12% -18% -26% -34% -43% -49%
(percentage)..........................
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOX
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2017 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2037
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline NOx Emissions (tpd)........... 232.39 158.43 132.00 119.56 109.80 103.10 98.80
Emissions Reduction Credits (tpd)...... ........ 2.43 2.43 2.43 2.43 2.43 2.43
EMFAC2021 Adjustment (tpd)............. ........ ........ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Adjusted Baseline NOX Emissions (tpd).. 232.39 160.86 134.43 121.99 112.23 105.53 101.23
Reduction in NOX since 2017 (tpd)...... ........ 71.53 97.96 110.40 120.16 126.86 131.16
Reduction in NOX since 2017 ........ 31% 42% 48% 52% 55% 56%
(percentage)..........................
NOX reductions since 2017 used for VOC ........ 12% 18% 26% 34% 43% 49%
substitution in this milestone year
(percentage)..........................
NOX reductions since 2017 surplus after ........ 19% 24% 22% 18% 12% 7%
meeting VOC substitution needs in this
milestone year (percentage)...........
RFP shortfall (-) (percentage)......... ........ 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
RFP met?............................... ........ Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision, Table 15.
The RFP demonstration calculates future year VOC targets from the
2017 baseline, consistent with CAA section 182(c)(2)(B)(i), which
requires reductions of ``at least 3 percent of baseline emissions each
year,'' and it substitutes NO<INF>X</INF> reductions for VOC reductions
beginning in milestone year 2023 to meet VOC emission targets.\145\
CARB concludes, based on the calculations and explanation provided in
the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision, that the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP
Revision demonstrates RFP for each milestone year as well as for the
attainment year in the San Joaquin Valley for the 2015 ozone NAAQS.
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\145\ NO<INF>X</INF> substitution is permitted under EPA
regulations for the 2015 ozone NAAQS for specific types of areas in
specific situations. See 40 CFR 51.1310(a)(2)(i)(B) and 40 CFR
51.1310(a)(2)(ii)(B); and 83 FR 62998, 63004 (Dec. 6, 2018).
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3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
We have reviewed the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan and agree that the EPA has
approved a 15 percent ROP demonstration for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS,
fulfilling the requirements of CAA section 182(b)(1) \146\ for the San
Joaquin Valley and that, as a result, there is no need to demonstrate
another 15 percent reduction in VOC for this area.
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\146\ See 62 FR 1150, 1183 (Jan. 8, 1997).
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The RFP demonstration in the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP Revision
derives from the same emissions inventories presented in section II.C
of this document. In section II.C of this document, we propose to
approve the revised 2017 base year emissions inventories for the 2015
ozone NAAQS. With respect to the baseline future year
[[Page 69934]]
emissions inventories, as further explained in section II.C of this
document, we have reviewed the growth and control factors and find them
acceptable and conclude that the future baseline emissions inventories
in the SJV 2022 Ozone Plan reflect appropriate calculation methods and
the latest planning assumptions and appropriately account for the pre-
baseline ERCs.
Under the CAA and the EPA's implementing regulations for the 2015
ozone NAAQS, with certain exceptions not relevant here, all emission
reductions from SIP-approved or federally promulgated measures that
occur after the baseline emissions inventory year are creditable for
purposes of the RFP requirements, provided the reductions meet the
requirements for creditability, including the need to be enforceable,
permanent, quantifiable, and surplus.\147\
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\147\ CAA section 182(b)(1)(C) and 40 CFR 51.1310(a)(5).
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With respect to the RFP demonstration in the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP
Revision, we note that the future baseline emissions inventories take
into account emissions reductions from State and local air pollution
control rules and regulations adopted by the end of 2021. We have
reviewed the District's VOC and NO<INF>X</INF> rules that are accounted
for in the future baseline emissions inventories and used to
demonstrate RFP and have concluded that emissions reductions from
stationary source controls accounted for the 2026 Extreme Ozone SIP
Revision are supported by rules approved as part of the SIP, with the
exception of amendments to District Rules 4306, 4352, 4354, 4702 and
4905.\148\
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\148\ See EPA's District Rules and Motor Vehicle Emission
Budgets TSD.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
With respect to mobile sources, the EPA has taken action to approve
most CARB mobi
[…truncated; see source link]Indexed from Federal Register on November 5, 2026.
This is legal information, not legal advice. Laws vary by jurisdiction and change frequently. Always verify current law with official sources and consult a licensed attorney in your jurisdiction for advice on your specific situation.