United States Global Change Research Program; Availability for Public Comment on the Proposed Amendment to the Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5)

Issuing agencies

Abstract

OSTP, on behalf of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), announces the availability of a proposed amendment and clarification to the Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) for public comment. The proposed amendment addresses the interpretation and Federal use of NCA5 results that depend materially on RCP8.5, SSP5-8.5, SRES A2, or analogous high-emissions pathways.

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<title>Federal Register, Volume 91 Issue 163 (Tuesday, August 25, 2026)</title>
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[Federal Register Volume 91, Number 163 (Tuesday, August 25, 2026)]
[Notices]
[Page 54893]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [<a href="http://www.gpo.gov">www.gpo.gov</a>]
[FR Doc No: 2026-17289]


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OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY


United States Global Change Research Program; Availability for 
Public Comment on the Proposed Amendment to the Fifth National Climate 
Assessment (NCA5)

AGENCY: United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), Office 
of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP).

ACTION: Notice of availability for public comment.

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SUMMARY: OSTP, on behalf of the U.S. Global Change Research Program 
(USGCRP), announces the availability of a proposed amendment and 
clarification to the Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) for 
public comment. The proposed amendment addresses the interpretation and 
Federal use of NCA5 results that depend materially on RCP8.5, SSP5-8.5, 
SRES A2, or analogous high-emissions pathways.

DATES: Comments must be received by 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time September 
9, 2026.

ADDRESSES: Interested individuals and organizations should submit 
comments electronically to <a href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#0d6b6869687f6c617f686a647e79687f4d627e797d2368627d236a627b"><span class="__cf_email__" data-cfemail="523437363720333e2037353b21263720123d2126227c373d227c353d24">[email&#160;protected]</span></a> and include 
``RFI Response: Proposed Amendment to NCA5'' in the subject line of the 
email. Mailed paper submissions will not be accepted, and electronic 
submissions received after the deadline may not be taken into 
consideration.
    Instructions: Response to this RFI is voluntary. Each individual or 
institution is requested to submit only one response. Electronic 
responses must be provided as attachments to an email rather than a 
link. Comments of seven pages or fewer (3,500 words) are requested; 
longer responses will not be considered. Responses should include the 
name of the person(s) or organization(s) filing the response. Responses 
containing references, studies, research, and other empirical data that 
are not widely published should include copies of or electronic links 
to the referenced materials. Responses containing profanity, vulgarity, 
threats, or other inappropriate language or content will not be 
considered.
    USGCRP will not respond to individual submissions. A response to 
this RFI will not be viewed as a binding commitment to develop or 
pursue the project or ideas discussed. This RFI is not accepting 
applications for financial assistance or financial incentives.
    Comments submitted in response to this notice are subject to the 
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). No business proprietary information, 
copyrighted information, or personally identifiable information should 
be submitted in response to this RFI. Please be aware that comments 
submitted in response to this RFI, including the submitter's 
identification (as noted above), may be posted, without change, on 
OSTP's or another Federal website or otherwise released publicly.
    After the public comment period closes, relevant Federal officials 
and participating agencies will consider the comments as appropriate. 
The proposed amendment may be revised before any final action.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Dr. Matthew Wielicki, Director, U.S. 
Global Change Research Program, Office of Science and Technology 
Policy; email: <a href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#ef898a8b8a9d8e839d8a88869c9b8a9daf809c9b9fc18a809fc1888099"><span class="__cf_email__" data-cfemail="3a5c5f5e5f485b56485f5d53494e5f487a55494e4a145f554a145d554c">[email&#160;protected]</span></a>; tel: 202-456-4444.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The proposed amendment will be available at 
<a href="https://www.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/2026-08/NCA5-Proposed-Amendment-August-2026.pdf">https://www.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/2026-08/NCA5-Proposed-Amendment-August-2026.pdf</a>. The USGCRP is mandated under the Global 
Change Research Act of 1990 to conduct a quadrennial National Climate 
Assessment to evaluate scientific findings and uncertainties related to 
global change, analyze the effects of global change, and analyze 
current and projected trends in global change, both human-induced and 
natural.
    NCA5 was released in November 2023. The proposed amendment would 
clarify the interpretation and Federal use of NCA5 statements, figures, 
tables, traceable accounts, regional summaries, public summaries, and 
derivative Federal communications that rely materially on RCP8.5, SSP5-
8.5, SRES A2, or analogous high-emissions pathways. The proposed 
amendment would not withdraw NCA5 in its entirety or disturb its 
compilation of observations, regional information, adaptation 
considerations, or appropriately described scenario-based analyses.
    The proposed amendment would clarify that results dependent on 
these pathways should not be presented as expected, baseline, business-
as-usual, likely, central, or ordinary Federal planning futures unless 
the same result is independently reproduced under a presently plausible 
scenario and evaluated against observations. Such results may remain 
useful as sensitivity analyses, bounding exercises, or stress tests 
when the applicable scenario, material assumptions, and limitations are 
clearly disclosed where the projected impact is communicated.
    USGCRP invites public comment on the scientific basis for the 
proposed amendment; NCA5 material that may require clarification; 
methods for labeling and communicating scenario-dependent results; the 
use of observational evidence and plausible comparator scenarios; and 
implications for Federal planning, analysis, and public communications. 
Commenters are encouraged to provide citations, data, or other 
supporting material.
    Authority: 15 U.S.C. Chapter 56A

    Dated: August 20, 2026.
Stacy Murphy,
Deputy Chief Operations Officer/Security Officer.
[FR Doc. 2026-17289 Filed 8-24-26; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 3270-F1-P


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