Notice2025-16260
Advisory Circular No. 450.131-1, Probability of Failure
Primary source
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Published
August 25, 2025
Issuing agencies
Transportation DepartmentFederal Aviation Administration
Abstract
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) invites public comments on draft Advisory Circular (AC) 450.131-1 Probability of Failure. The draft AC provides guidance to launch and reentry vehicle operators for performing a probability of failure analysis for the purpose of vehicle operator license applications.
Full Text
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<title>Federal Register, Volume 90 Issue 162 (Monday, August 25, 2025)</title>
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[Federal Register Volume 90, Number 162 (Monday, August 25, 2025)]
[Notices]
[Page 41473]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [<a href="http://www.gpo.gov">www.gpo.gov</a>]
[FR Doc No: 2025-16260]
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DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
Federal Aviation Administration
[Docket No.: FAA-2025-2323]
Advisory Circular No. 450.131-1, Probability of Failure
AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Department of
Transportation (DOT).
ACTION: Notice of availability, request for comments.
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SUMMARY: The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) invites public
comments on draft Advisory Circular (AC) 450.131-1 Probability of
Failure. The draft AC provides guidance to launch and reentry vehicle
operators for performing a probability of failure analysis for the
purpose of vehicle operator license applications.
DATES: Written comments should be received by September 24, 2025.
ADDRESSES: Please send comments identified with ``AC 450.131-1
Probability of Failure,'' and [Enter docket number] to the email
address, <a href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7a43571b090e571b0900484b4a571e13081f190e130c1f093a1c1b1b541d150c"><span class="__cf_email__" data-cfemail="c3faeea2b0b7eea2b0b9f1f2f3eea7aab1a6a0b7aab5a6b083a5a2a2eda4acb5">[email protected]</span></a>.
FAA will consider all the comments and recommendations received
while developing the final version of the AC. The final version will be
published on FAA website (<a href="http://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/advisory_circulars">www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/advisory_circulars</a>).
Privacy: The Department of Transportation's complete Privacy Act
Statement can be found in the Federal Register published on April 11,
2000 (65 FR 19477), as well as at <a href="http://DocketsInfo.dot.gov">DocketsInfo.dot.gov</a>.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: James Hatt, Space Policy Division
Manager, Office of Commercial Space Transportation, Federal Aviation
Administration, 800 Independence Avenue SW, Washington, DC 20591-0001;
<a href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#eba18a868e98c5aac5a38a9f9fab8d8a8ac58c849d"><span class="__cf_email__" data-cfemail="c983a8a4acbae788e781a8bdbd89afa8a8e7aea6bf">[email protected]</span></a>.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Background
The Commercial Space Launch Act of 1984, as amended and codified at
51 U.S.C. 50901 through 50923 (``the Act''), authorizes DOT and FAA
through delegation,\1\ to oversee, license, and regulate commercial
launch and reentry activities, and the operation of launch and reentry
sites as carried out by United States citizens or within the United
States. The Act's requirements are implemented in parts 400 through 460
of title 14 of the Code of Federal Regulations (14 CFR).
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\1\ See 49 CFR 1.83(b).
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Under 14 CFR 450.113, an applicant for a vehicle operator license
must perform and document a flight safety analysis for all phases of
flight of a launch or reentry vehicle, with limited exception. In
accordance with 14 CFR 450.131, the flight safety analysis must account
for vehicle failure probability for each hazard and phase of flight.
Draft AC 450.131-1 provides guidance to vehicle operator license
applicants on how to perform a probability of failure analysis in
accordance with 14 CFR 450.131 and contains an example means of
compliance for a simplified probability of failure analysis for a
reentry capsule.
Comments Invited
FAA invites the public to submit comments on the draft AC, as
specified in the ADDRESSES section. Commenters should include the
subject line ``AC 450.131-1 Probability of Failure'' and Docket Number
2025-2323 on all comments submitted to FAA. The most helpful comments
will reference a specific portion of the draft document, explain the
reason for any recommended change, and include supporting data. Public
comments submitted in accordance with the process set forth in this
Federal Register notice will be considered for the purpose of the final
version of this draft AC. However, even following the release of the
final version of this draft AC, members of the public will continue to
have the ability to submit feedback and suggestions pertaining to the
AC in accordance with the process outlined in the AC.
You may examine the draft AC on the agency's public website and in
the docket as follows:
<bullet> At <a href="http://www.regulations.gov">www.regulations.gov</a> in Docket [enter docket number].
<bullet> At the ``Commercial Space Draft Advisory Circulars (ACs)''
page of the agency's public website, which is located at <a href="https://www.faa.gov/space/legislationregulationguidance/draft_docs/ac">https://www.faa.gov/space/legislationregulationguidance/draft_docs/ac</a>.
Issued in Washington, DC.
James A. Hatt,
Manager, Space Policy Division Office of Commercial Space
Transportation.
[FR Doc. 2025-16260 Filed 8-22-25; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 4910-13-P
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