Notice2024-30664
Final 2023 Marine Mammal Stock Assessment Reports
Primary source
Metadata and text below are from the Federal Register, a public-domain U.S. government work. Always verify the official published version before relying on it for any legal matter.
Published
December 26, 2024
Issuing agencies
Commerce DepartmentNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Abstract
As required by the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA), NMFS has considered public comments for revisions of the 2023 marine mammal stock assessment reports (SARs). This notice announces the availability of 66 final 2023 SARs that were updated and finalized.
Full Text
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[Federal Register Volume 89, Number 247 (Thursday, December 26, 2024)]
[Notices]
[Pages 104989-104996]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [<a href="http://www.gpo.gov">www.gpo.gov</a>]
[FR Doc No: 2024-30664]
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DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
[RTID 0648-XE168]
Final 2023 Marine Mammal Stock Assessment Reports
AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Commerce.
ACTION: Notice; response to comments.
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SUMMARY: As required by the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA), NMFS
has considered public comments for revisions of the 2023 marine mammal
stock assessment reports (SARs). This notice announces the availability
of 66 final 2023 SARs that were updated and finalized.
ADDRESSES: The 2023 final SARs are available in electronic form via the
internet at <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national/marine-mammal-protection/marine-mammal-stock-assessments">https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national/marine-mammal-protection/marine-mammal-stock-assessments</a>
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Zachary Schakner, Office of Science
and Technology, 301-427-8106, <a href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#a7fdc6c4cfc6d5de89f4c4cfc6ccc9c2d5e7c9c8c6c689c0c8d1"><span class="__cf_email__" data-cfemail="7822191b10190a01562b1b101913161d0a3816171919561f170e">[email protected]</span></a>; Nancy Young,
206-526-4297, <a href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#420c232c213b6c1b2d372c25022c2d23236c252d34"><span class="__cf_email__" data-cfemail="4d032c232e3463142238232a0d23222c2c632a223b">[email protected]</span></a>, regarding Alaska regional stock
assessments; Jessica McCordic, 508-495-2396, <a href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#fdb7988e8e949e9cd3b09ebe928f99949ebd93929c9cd39a928b"><span class="__cf_email__" data-cfemail="5b113e282832383a7516381834293f32381b35343a3a753c342d">[email protected]</span></a>,
regarding Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean regional stock
assessments; or Jim Carretta, 858-546-7171, <a href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#eca68581c2af8d9e9e8998988dac82838d8dc28b839a"><span class="__cf_email__" data-cfemail="78321115563b190a0a1d0c0c193816171919561f170e">[email protected]</span></a>,
regarding Pacific regional stock assessments.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Background
Section 117 of the MMPA (16 U.S.C. 1361 et seq.) requires NMFS and
the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to prepare stock assessments
for each stock of marine mammals occurring in waters under the
jurisdiction of the United States, including the U.S. Exclusive
Economic Zone (EEZ). These SARs must contain information regarding the
distribution and abundance of the stock, population growth rates and
trends, estimates of annual human-caused mortality and serious injury
(M/SI) from all sources, descriptions of the fisheries with which the
stock interacts, and the status of the stock. Initial SARs were
completed in 1995.
The MMPA requires NMFS and USFWS to review the SARs at least
annually for strategic stocks and stocks for which significant new
information is available and at least once every three years for non-
strategic stocks. The term ``strategic stock'' means a marine mammal
stock: (A) for which the level of direct human-caused mortality exceeds
the potential biological removal level or PBR (defined by the MMPA as
the maximum number of animals, not including natural mortalities, that
may be removed from a marine mammal stock while allowing that stock to
reach or maintain its optimum sustainable population); (B) which, based
on the best available scientific information, is declining and is
likely to be listed as a threatened species under the Endangered
Species Act (ESA) within the foreseeable future; or (C) which is listed
as a threatened species or endangered species under the ESA or is
designated as depleted under the MMPA. NMFS and USFWS are required to
revise a SAR if they determine the review indicates that the status of
the
[[Page 104990]]
stock has changed or can be more accurately determined.
In order to ensure that marine mammal SARs constitute the best
scientific information available, the updated SARs under NMFS'
jurisdiction are peer-reviewed within NMFS Science Centers and by
members of three regional independent scientific review groups
established under the MMPA to independently advise NMFS and the USFWS
on marine mammals. As a result of the time involved in the assessment
of new scientific information, revision, and peer-review of the SARs,
the period covered by the 2023 final SARs is generally 2017 through
2021.
NMFS reviewed the status of all marine mammal strategic stocks and
considered whether significant new information was available for all
other stocks under NMFS' jurisdiction. As a result of this review, NMFS
revised or developed new reports for 66 stocks in the Alaska, Atlantic,
and Pacific regions to incorporate new information. The 2023 revisions
to the SARs consist primarily of updated or revised human-caused M/SI
estimates and updated abundance estimates. This publication also
finalizes (1) a new SAR for a newly described species, Sato's beaked
whale (2) revisions to the stock structure of West Coast harbor
porpoise that splits the Northern California-Southern Oregon stock into
two stocks (the Northern California-Southern Oregon stock and the
Central Oregon stock) and (3) name changes for all stocks with '4-
Islands' in the name to 'Maui Nui' to align with the original Hawaiian
names of various islands and places where the stocks reside.
The 2023 revisions to the abundance and trend sections of the main
Hawaiian Islands insular false killer whale section of the false killer
whale SAR are not being finalized at this time because of a delay in
the publication of updated abundance estimates. The mortality and
serious injury information has been updated together with the other
false killer whale stocks represented in this SAR. The abundance and
trend sections for main Hawaiian Islands insular false killer whales
will be revised in a subsequent SAR cycle. The draft 2023 SAR for the
Washington Inland Waters harbor seal stocks is not being finalized at
this time given that the draft Pearson et al. estimates of abundance
and trends remain unpublished. This SAR will be revised in a subsequent
cycle when the abundance estimates for these stocks are published.
NMFS received comments on the draft 2023 SARs from the Marine
Mammal Commission (Commission); the Department of Fisheries and Oceans
Canada (DFO); two fishing industry associations (Hawaii Longline
Association (HLA) and Maine Lobstermen's Association (MLA)); an
environmental non-governmental organization (Center for Biological
Diversity); two Alaska Natives Organizations (Chugach Regional
Resources Commission and the Aleut Community of St. Paul Island); and
the Western Pacific Regional Fishery Management Council (Council). Our
responses to substantive comments are below. We have not responded to
comments that failed to raise a significant point for us to consider
(e.g., comments that are out of scope of the draft SARs). We appreciate
the Commission's program-level comments and will take them into
consideration, as appropriate, in the future.
In response to a comment from MLA that noted NMFS relied on an
incorrect population size estimate for the NARW SAR, we have further
revised the NARW SAR to include the latest and best available estimate
on NARW abundance, which also now incorporates an improvement to the
underlying model to allow for the potential of recruitment based on
observed calves (Linden 2024a,b). However, we note that the issue of
having multiple abundance estimates for the NARW population using the
same general model is not new. It is an outcome of the timing of the
SAR cycle and when the data are available to perform an updated model
run.
Since 2017, NMFS has produced annual NARW population size estimates
in collaboration with the New England Aquarium, which are released at
the North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium's annual meeting, typically
in October each year. In 2023, NMFS began publishing these estimates in
stand-alone peer-reviewed Technical Memorandum to provide full and
transparent documentation of the estimation process and results (e.g.,
Linden 2023, Linden 2024b). However, the timing of the release of these
estimates has not allowed for their straightforward incorporation into
the contemporaneous final NARW SAR. This is, in part, because NMFS'
marine mammal SARs are typically reviewed by the SRGs in early spring,
subsequently made available for public comment, and then finalized with
a notice in the Federal Register. Abundance estimates produced in
October are, therefore, not typically available for inclusion in the
latest SAR before SRG review and public comment. Nevertheless, NMFS
agrees with MLA that the NARW abundance estimates produced each October
should generally be considered the best available scientific
information on the population size of NARWs for that year, as long as
all necessary review requirements, including peer review, have been
satisfied. Furthermore, NMFS recognizes that having multiple abundance
estimates for the NARW population publicly available in various stages
of the SAR process, including multiple estimates for any given single
year, creates confusion and ambiguity as to what is the best available
and most recent estimate of the population size.
To address this timing issue for the final 2023 SAR and minimize
similar timing issues going forward, NMFS is modifying certain
procedural steps in developing the NARW SAR. Specifically, the final
2023 NARW SAR has been updated to include the latest abundance estimate
published in Linden (2024b) in October 2024, along with the most recent
human-caused mortality and serious injury data based on Henry et al.
2024. In future SAR cycles, NMFS anticipates it will proceed similarly
to include the most recent data available in the most recent NARW SAR
when finalized.
A key aspect of the NARW stock assessment process that allows for
NMFS to incorporate the best available science into the final SAR is
that unless the model used to estimate population abundance is
significantly modified, additional runs of the model to produce newer
estimates only necessitate a Level 1 review per NMFS' Guidelines for
Preparing Stock Assessment Reports Pursuant to the Marine Mammal
Protection Act (NMFS 2023, hereafter the GAMMS). Per the GAMMS section
3.6 Ensuring Appropriate Peer Review of New Information peer review,
Level 1, ``For routine data updates and analyses using methods
unchanged from previously peer-reviewed and published analyses for the
affected stock, there is no need for additional peer review before
including such information in draft SARs for review by the SRG and co-
management partners (when applicable).'' Under Level 1, updated annual
abundance estimates and data on human-caused M/SI are explicitly
provided as examples of new information that meets the criteria for
Level 1 peer review, provided they ``employ[s] methods that are not
substantively changed from previously peer-reviewed and published
analyses.'' In cases where a model used for a marine mammal stock
assessment is substantively changed, the GAMMS direct NMFS to follow
Level 2 peer-review, which states that ``NMFS should consult with the
SRG and co-management partners (when applicable)
[[Page 104991]]
about further peer review, including that of the SRG, before such
information is included in the draft SAR.''
For the 2023 NARW SAR, the population abundance model was indeed
substantively modified to improve the estimates by allowing the model
to accommodate for potential recruitment into the population based on
observed calves (Linden 2024a). Following this, the improved model was
then used to produce an updated annual abundance estimate of the
population (Linden 2024b). In accordance with the GAMMS Level 2 peer
review guidance, NMFS requested a review of the model improvements
(Linden 2024a) by the Atlantic SRG in October 2024 and received
positive feedback, noting that the improved model provides the best
available estimate of NARW abundance. Following this, NMFS also sought
a review of its application of the improved model to produce an updated
NARW abundance estimate from the Atlantic SRG. While the Atlantic SRG
chair indicated SRG review was unnecessary given that the new
information met the GAMMS Level 1 peer review guidance, the chair
nonetheless provided a positive review of the new abundance estimate
(Linden 2024b). For the updated information on human-caused M/SI that
became available after publication of the draft 2023 NARW SAR (Henry et
al. 2024), NMFS did not seek additional peer review given that the new
information meets the GAMMS Level 1 peer review guidance. Additionally,
NMFS had already provided the updated information to the Atlantic SRG
for review at their annual meeting in February 2024.
In summary, given MLA's comment and the best scientific information
that has become available and peer reviewed since publication of the
draft 2023 NARW SAR, the final 2023 NARW SAR has been updated to
include the most recent and best available scientific information on
NARW population abundance and human-caused mortality and serious injury
of the stock.
Comments on National Issues
Comment 1: The Commission recommends that NMFS establish a
consistent approach for describing M/SI within the text of the SARs,
adhering to the current Guidelines for Preparing Stock Assessment
Reports Pursuant to the Marine Mammal Protection Act (NMFS 2023), and
reporting total human-caused and fisheries-related M/SI in the summary
tables by region.
Response: We strive for consistency in all information in the
summary tables. We continue to implement the revised GAMMS as we
determine revisions are warranted on a stock-by-stock basis with the
goal of improving consistency over time.
Comments on Alaska Issues
Comment 2: The Commission recommends that NMFS' annual reports of
human-caused M/SI of marine mammals in Alaska be made available at the
time of the public comment period to enable informed review, rather
than citing an in-preparation report (e.g., Freed et al. (in prep.) is
cited in the draft 2023 Alaska SARs). The Commission suggests that if
the report has not yet been published by the time the draft SARs are
released, the information should be made available in another way, such
as a preliminary or abbreviated report.
Response: We recognize that it may be helpful to SAR reviewers to
access the supporting M/SI report while reviewing the draft SARs. The
timelines for injury and mortality data acquisition and finalization
(sometimes involving genetic analysis for species identification),
injury severity determination and review, and report writing, review,
and publication mean that a final report may not be available before
draft SARs are released for public comment. Our current practice is to
make the newest year of preliminary data available to the Alaska
Scientific Review Group (SRG) and Marine Mammal Commission ahead of the
annual Alaska SRG meeting. If future reports are not published before
publication of the draft SARs, we will aim to make the 5-year
preliminary dataset corresponding with the draft SARs and/or a draft
report available to the public upon request.
Comment 3: The Chugach Regional Resources Commission (CRRC)
provided information on research by its Alutiiq Pride Marine Institute
and capabilities of its marine mammal program. The CRRC provided two
reports that are not currently cited in the draft 2023 SARs: a report
compiling marine mammal harvest data from 1984-2014 in the Chugach
region (Keating et al. 2023), and a report summarizing the status and
data available for Steller sea lions, harbor seals, harbor porpoise and
Dall's porpoise in the CRRC region (Rehberg 2023).
Response: We appreciate the proactive engagement by CRRC and the
information provided in the two reports. We reviewed the reports
specifically for information about Steller sea lions, the only species
covered in the reports for which the SAR was revised in 2023, and
determined the reports do not provide additional information that was
not already presented in the SAR. We encourage CRRC to share
information on any future surveys and harvest data that can be reviewed
during future review and revisions of the SARs.
Comment 4: The Aleut Community of St. Paul Island commented that
the Eastern Pacific northern fur seal SAR was not revised in 2023 and
an update is needed because newly available scientific research showing
that nutritional limitations are one likely cause of the continued
population decline would allow NMFS to more accurately determine the
status of the stock. Specifically, they cited (1) McHuron et al. (2019)
for finding evidence that food limitation could be contributing to
reduced reproductive success and that long-term prey limitations could
be causing reduced pup production; (2) McHuron et al. (2020) for
concluding that increasing the prey available in important locations
was the most feasible way to ``reduce maternal foraging effort and
consequently increase pup growth rates;'' and (3) Divine et al. (2022)
for reinforcing the conclusions of the two McHuron et al. papers by
Indigenous knowledge holders.
The Aleut Community of St. Paul Island also commented that the
updated SAR must include an estimate of mortality due to prey
competition from commercial fishing, claiming that such mortality is
human caused and is incidental to human activities. They cited Short et
al. (2021) as providing estimates of the mortality of first-year pups
due to prey competition.
Response: NMFS reviewed the strategic Eastern Pacific northern fur
seal SAR at the beginning of the 2023 SAR cycle and determined that the
new scientific information available, including published literature
and updated M/SI estimates, did not indicate that the stock's strategic
status under the MMPA had changed or that NMFS could more accurately
determine the stock's status (see 16 U.S.C. 1386(c)(2)). As part of the
annual SAR review for strategic stocks, NMFS reviewed the Eastern
Pacific northern fur seal SAR in 2024 and determined, based on the best
available scientific information, that a revision is warranted. We will
consider the scientific information provided by the commenter as we
develop the 2024 SAR.
Comments on Atlantic Issues
Comment 5: The Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada disagrees
with the country of origin assignments for observed human-caused
mortality and serious injury in the North Atlantic
[[Page 104992]]
right whale (NARW) SAR for NARWs #3893, #3920, #4094, and #3125.
Response: In regards to NARW #3893, #3920, #4094, and #3125, we
refer DFO to our response to their comment on this issue in the Federal
Register notice for the final 2022 SARs (88 FR 54592, 54593 (Aug. 11,
2023) (response to comment #5)). We also note that the serious injury
of NARW #4094 in 2017 is no longer included in the 2023 NARW SAR given
that it was updated to include the available M/SI data from the most
recent 5-year time (2018-2022).
Comment 6: MLA states the NARW SAR must disclose the limits of the
Pace model, explain how those limitations have been addressed, and
clarify how new information is incorporated into the model. MLA
identified the following limitations: the model remains sensitive to
new data and has highly variable outputs, especially at the end of the
time series when it is not known if an unseen whale has died or simply
not been detected, does not account for natural mortality and predation
and assumes all estimated mortality is human-caused, assumes an equal
sex ratio and probability of mortality, and the model's initial
estimated population decline from 2011 to 2015 occurred during a time
when NARW geographic distribution shifted to areas lacking survey
effort and recapture rates declined significantly.
Response: Regarding model sensitivity to new data, natural
mortality and assumed human-caused mortality, and limitations of the
model due to geographic distribution shifts, MLA provided substantively
identical comments on the 2022 NARW SAR. MLA has not presented any new
information that was not considered and addressed in our response to
their comments on these issues for the 2022 NARW SAR. Therefore, we
refer to our responses on the 2022 NARW SAR (88 FR 54592, 54594
(response to comment #6)).
Regarding the model assuming an equal sex ratio and probability of
mortality, in response to MLA's comment on this issue for the 2022
SARs, we revised the NARW SAR to clarify that ``[t]he model does not
assume an equal sex ratio and allows survival and capture rates to
differ between the sexes.'' However, MLA comments that this issue
remains and cites Pace (2021), which states, ``We estimated the
relative effective detection effort as the mean adult female capture
probability for the era.'' To clarify, the MLA incorrectly attributes a
quote from Pace et al. (2021) to Pace (2021). Pace et al. (2021) was a
specific analysis for exploring hypotheses related to undetected
(cryptic) mortality. The population estimate in the 2023 NARW SAR,
using the methods of Pace et al. (2017) and further refined in Pace
(2021), specified separate capture and survival probabilities for males
and females. In addition, the population model has now been further
refined and improved to accommodate the potential for recruitment into
the population based on observed calves (Linden 2024a,b), which
underwent additional peer review by the Atlantic SRG and was determined
to be the best available science on NARW abundance.
Comment 7: MLA claims the draft NARW SAR does not include the best
scientific information available on the population size because the
draft SAR states that the NARW population size (as of 2021) is 340
whales, and NMFS published a technical memorandum in October 2023
reporting that the NARW population size was 364 whales in 2021 and 356
whales in 2022. MLA claims this has major consequences for other key
metrics in the SAR.
Response: In response to MLA's comment on this issue, we have
updated the final 2023 NARW SAR to include the most recent and best
available scientific information on NARW population abundance and
human-caused mortality and serious injury of the stock (see Background
section) that was just recently released in October. In addition, we
updated the M/SI data in the NARW SAR to include data from the most
recent 5-year time period (2018-2022) for which they are available.
However, it is important to note that for NARWs, small changes in
population size have minimal effect on their PBR level and, thus,
management targets. The PBR level for NARWs has been 0.7 since the
final 2021 NARW SAR was published and less than 1 since 1995 when the
first NARW SAR was published following the 1994 amendments to the MMPA.
PBR in the final 2023 SAR for NARWs is 0.73. While we have revised the
SAR to include the most recent available estimate on the population's
size, it does not significantly impact other metrics in the SAR. Until
such time that the minimum population size is greater than 500 NARWs,
the PBR level benchmark for the stock will remain below 1 individual
whale. Moreover, regardless of the stock's PBR level, NARWs will remain
a strategic and depleted stock under the MMPA as long as the species is
listed under the ESA.
Comment 8: MLA states that NMFS' determination that 87 percent of
undetected, assumed carcasses represent whales killed by fishing
entanglements is unsupported and arbitrary because the draft 2023 SAR
states that entanglement is more likely to be detected than vessel
strikes and which raises concern with NMFS' method of apportioning
unknown sources of human-caused mortality. MLA also comments that
significant discussion about vessel strike data and management was
struck from the 2023 NARW SAR without any justification.
Response: Regarding the percentage of undetected mortality assumed
to be from entanglement, MLA provided substantively identical comments
on the 2022 NARW SAR. MLA has not presented any new information that
was not considered and addressed in our response to their comments on
this issue for the 2022 NARW SAR. Therefore, we refer to our responses
on the 2022 NARW SAR (88 FR 54592, 54594 (response to comment #7)).
With respect to the removal of some discussion on vessel strike
management measures, NMFS is striking this text because it believes it
is overly detailed and already covered in general in the SAR and in
more detail in the cited studies. The text simply elaborated on the
specifics of the studies except in the case of Hayes et al. (2018),
which we have now added. To keep the SAR concise while continuing to
include the best available scientific information on vessel strike
management measures, we are opting to generally summarize and cite
relevant studies going forward. The sentence referring to the study by
Kelly et al. (2020) was not stricken but instead moved up to the
preceding paragraph to improve readability.
Comment 9: MLA states the NARW draft SAR must estimate M/SI by
fishery and failure to do so ignores the best scientific information
available. Specifically, MLA states table 2 should be revised to
summarize data on the country of origin of NARW entanglements during
the relevant period, considering scientific observations of entangling
gear and differences in conservation programs between countries.
Response: MLA provided a substantively identical comment on the
draft 2022 NARW SAR. MLA has not presented any new information that was
not already considered and addressed in our response to their comment
on the 2022 NARW SAR. We refer MLA to our response on the 2022 NARW SAR
(88 FR 54592, 54595 (response to comment #8)).
Comment 10: MLA comments that the draft 2023 NARW SAR does not
include information on commercial fisheries that interact with the
stock as required
[[Page 104993]]
by Section 117(a)(4) of the MMPA and the SAR should include data on the
severity of entanglements, citing New England Aquarium reports, and
report observed data, such as the 90 percent decline in lobster gear
entanglements since 2010. MLA claims that by omitting this relevant
data, NMFS fails to comply with the MMPA. MLA also comments that the
draft SAR inaccurately claims that scarring is a better indicator of
fisheries' interaction than entanglement records, ignoring data that
suggests most entanglements are minor, misrepresenting the effects of
existing measures.
Response: MLA provided a substantively identical comment on the
draft 2022 NARW SAR. MLA has not presented any new information that was
not already considered and addressed in our response to their comments
on this issue for the 2022 NARW SAR. We refer MLA to our response to
their comment on the 2022 NARW SAR (88 FR 54592, 54595 (response to
comment #9)).
Comment 11: MLA comments that the NARW SAR should include
additional available scientific information about NARW behavior and
associated risk of harm from fishing gear, specifically, the SAR should
describe population density (e.g., the SAR should not strike language
describing ``peak detection'' in Canadian waters and add these details
where relevant), include recent scientific literature that confirms
areas NARW have shifted their habitat usage (e.g., long-term passive
acoustic data show that ``NARWs appear to have shifted from previously
prevalent northern grounds, such as the Bay of Fundy and greater Gulf
of Maine (regions 3 and 4) to spending more time in mid-Atlantic
regions year-round''), and include recently published modeling work,
which predicts ``decreased habitat suitability across the Gulf of
Maine'' and ``suggest[s] that regions outside the current areas of
conservation focus may become increasingly important habitats for
E.glacialis under future climate scenarios.''
Response: MLA provided substantively identical comments on the 2022
NARW SAR while citing new scientific information. We revised the SAR to
include the studies cited by MLA (e.g., Ross et al. 2023; Meyer-Gutbrod
et al. 2023)); however, these studies further support the information
included in the SAR. We refer to our responses on the 2022 NARW SAR (88
FR 54592, 54594 (response to comment #10)). In addition, we note the
2023 SAR includes an updated summary of distribution shifts and their
relationship to climate changes throughout. Changes to the text, such
as striking the previous reference to peak detections in Canada, were
made to ensure the information summarized in the SAR is based on the
best scientific information available, including more recent
publications.
Comment 12: MLA notes that the draft SAR under-reports calving data
because it omits data describing the rebound in calving after 2018 and
recommends renaming the ``Other Mortality'' heading to ``Vessel Strike-
Related Mortality and Serious Injury'' as is done for the section on M/
SI from fishery-related M/SI.
Response: Regarding calving data and headings, MLA provided
substantively identical comments on the draft 2022 NARW SAR. MLA has
not presented any new information that was not already considered and
addressed in our response to their comments on this issue for the 2022
NARW SAR. We refer MLA to our previous response on the 2022 NARW SAR
(88 FR 54592, 54596 (response to comment #11)). We note that Figure 4
in the 2023 NARW SAR shows the calving rate data from 1990 to 2022, the
most recent year for which full data are available, using an Apparent
Productivity Index (API). We explain that the fluctuating abundance
observed from 1990 to 2020 makes interpreting a count of calves by year
less clear than measuring population productivity, which we index by
dividing the number of detected calves by the estimated adult and
subadult population each year. Finally, rather than give a year by year
accounting of the calving rates in the body of the text (which is
already presented in Figure 4), we have struck the sentence stating
that ``[n]o calves were born in the winter of 2017-2018.''
Comment 13: MLA comments that Kenney (2018) should not be cited in
the SAR because it fails to account for biological processes (e.g.,
natural death) and assumes a constant calving rate that is higher than
the rate included in the draft SAR.
Response: MLA provided an identical comment on the 2022 NARW SAR.
MLA has not presented any new information that was not already
considered and addressed in our response to their comments on this
issue for the 2022 NARW SAR. Therefore, we refer MLA to our previous
response on the 2022 NARW SAR (88 FR 54592, 54596 (response to comment
#12)).
Comment 14: MLA states the decline in NARW body size does not
correlate to observed birth rates, ignores potential causation by
vessel traffic, and is not meaningful. MLA claims the decline in NARW
body size does not correlate with calving rates and there are
significant limits to the inferences that can be made from Stewart et
al. (2021). MLA also claims NMFS' statement that ``entanglement will
continue to impact calving rates, and the declining trend in abundance
will likely continue'' incorrectly assumes that entanglements are a
meaningful driver to the purported decline in body size.
Response: Regarding NARW body size, MLA provided a substantively
identical comment on the 2022 NARW SAR. MLA has not presented any new
information that was not already considered and addressed in our
response to their comments on this issue for the 2022 NARW SAR.
Therefore, we refer MLA to our previous response (88 FR 54592, 54596
(response to comment #13)). Regarding the statement on entanglements,
we note that MLA mischaracterizes the interpretation of Stewart et al.
2021 and 2022 in the NARW SAR with respect to the effects of
entanglement. The SAR only briefly describes the empirical results of
Stewart et al. 2021 and 2022 (i.e., North Atlantic right whale are
growing to shorter adult lengths than in previous decades, and smaller
females have longer inter-birth intervals than larger females) and
notes that their findings (i.e., some calving rate variability is
related to variability in nutrition) may be related to a combination of
changes in feeding habitats and increased energy expenditures related
to non-lethal entanglements, which is supported by several other
studies (Meyer-Gutbrod and Greene 2014; Meyer-Gutbrod et al. 2021;
Meyer-Gutbrod et al. 2023; Record et al. 2019; Rolland et al. 2016;
Pettis et al. 2017; van der Hoop et al. 2017). Nevertheless, we have
deleted the specific sentence, in part, because with the most recent
abundance estimate, the population appears to no longer be declining.
Comments on Pacific Issues
Comment 15: The Commission comments that the Pantropical spotted
dolphin, Hawai[revaps]i Island SAR states that mean annual takes are
undetermined for this stock, as well as for the O[revaps]ahu and Maui
Nui Stocks. While the summary table lists M/SI as ``unk'' for the
O[revaps]ahu and Maui Nui Stocks, it lists both fisheries and total
human-caused M/SI as ``>=0.2'' for the Hawai[revaps]i Island Stock. The
Commission recommends that NMFS either provide explanatory text within
the SAR to justify the estimate of ``>=0.2'' for M/SI or change the
estimate to be ``unk''.
Response: The erroneous values in the summary table have been
changed to
[[Page 104994]]
unknown,' to match what appears in the SAR.
Comment 16: The Commission comments that descriptions of ``other
factors'' that may be causing decline or impeding recovery were not
included in the revised SARs for four strategic stocks: Sperm whale--
California/Oregon/Washington stock, blue whale--Eastern North Pacific
(ENP) stock, fin whale--California/Oregon/Washington Stock, and sei
whale--ENP stock. The Commission recommends that NMFS revise these SARs
to describe any other factors and, if there are no data to indicate
that other factors may be affecting the stock, then this should be
clearly stated.
Response: The draft ENP blue whale SAR included an ``other
factors'' section, and we have added a summary of these factors to the
SARs referenced above that lacked them.
Comment 17: HLA comments that the draft 2023 SAR removes the
Pelagic Stock designation without explanation and replaces it with a
``management area,'' reporting all required information for this area
instead of a stock. HLA disagrees with this because the MMPA requires
information to be reported for ``stocks,'' not ``management areas'',
NMFS did not follow its own guidance for revising stock designations.
HLA also commented that the ``management area'' does not accurately
represent the Pelagic Stock's range and the best available scientific
information because animals have been tracked and recorded outside of
the management area and using the management area for Nmin and PBR and
comparing such to all fishery M/SI creates inaccuracies.
Response: NMFS is neither replacing the Pelagic Stock with a new
assessment area nor defining new demographically independent
populations or designating new stocks. Rather, the draft SAR proposed
to use information on what is the known range for the Hawai[revaps]i
Pelagic False killer whale stock to identify an appropriate area over
which to assess the stock (termed ``Management Area'' in the draft SAR
and now ``Assessment Area'' in the Final SAR). This area reflects the
most comprehensive synthesis of existing biological data on the stock,
ensures comparisons of PBR to human-caused M/SI are commensurate, and
follows NMFS' GAMMS. Specifically, Section 3.4.4 on transboundary
stocks in the GAMMS states ``For non-migratory transboundary stocks
(e.g., stocks with broad pelagic distributions that extend into
international waters), an area-apportioned Nmin based on abundance
estimates relevant to managing marine mammals under U.S. jurisdiction
should be provided and used to calculate an adjusted PBR.'' The SAR has
always noted that the range of the Hawai[revaps]i Pelagic Stock of
false killer whales likely extends beyond the U.S. EEZ, but until the
2023 SAR, NMFS only assessed the stock based on data from within the
EEZ because data were not available to estimate abundance outside of
the EEZ. Following the 2023 changes to GAMMS (NMFS 2023), NMFS re-
evaluated the appropriateness of only using data from within the EEZ to
assess PBR relative to human-caused M/SI. The GAMMS (section 3.1)
discourages reliance on political boundaries like the EEZ that do not
represent a stock's true biological and ecological range and is counter
to the MMPA's objective of maintaining stocks as functioning elements
of their ecosystems. Based on the availability of data to estimate
abundance outside of the EEZ following the density surface models for
the central Pacific provided in Bradford et al. (2020) and a review of
the available biological data on stock range, we determined that it was
more appropriate to assess the stock based on the newly identified
assessment area. An assessment of this stock over this area better
reflects the stock's true status as compared to an assessment that only
covers the EEZ, and it is based on biologically relevant false killer
whale ranging data. As noted with previous boundary changes (in
Bradford et al. 2015, 2020), NMFS revises the area over which the stock
is assessed as new information or analyses become available that
indicate the known stock range should be revised. This change, from
assessing the stock within the EEZ to assessing within a broader area
(i.e., assessment area) reflects application of the best available data
on abundance and human-caused M/SI and is similar to other revisions
NMFS makes when additional data, including data with broader spatial
coverage, become available to assess a stock. In summary, the new
assessment area better represents the known biological and ecological
range of the Hawai[revaps]i Pelagic stock and more effectively allows
for management of the stock over its full known distribution,
consistent with MMPA objectives. NMFS has revised the SAR to clarify
that the EEZ only population size, Nmin, and PBR are included for
comparison to previous assessments only.
The methodology and resulting Hawai[revaps]i Pelagic stock
assessment area was reviewed by the Pacific Scientific Review Group
(PSRG) during their 2023 annual meeting and was modified based on their
recommendations. At the time the area was established, there were no
data available on the presence of false killer whales from the
Hawai[revaps]i pelagic stock outside this area. NMFS did not receive
any comments on alternative biologically data-driven approaches to
define the assessment area, and as such, we are retaining the area as
presently defined following the recommendations of the PSRG. As noted
in the comment from HLA, a Hawai[revaps]i pelagic false killer whale
tagged near the main Hawaiian Islands made a brief excursion a short
distance outside of the current assessment area following PSRG review
and the publication of the draft SAR. We have added clarifying language
to the SAR to explicitly note that the assessment area does not
represent the full stock range and therefore, N<INF>min</INF>, PBR, and
human-caused M/SI are considered minimum estimates. NMFS will review
the cited data along with the best scientific information available on
the stocks range to determine whether a SAR revision is warranted.
Comment 18: HLA comments that NMFS substantially underestimates the
population size of the FKW Pelagic Stock and that the proposed
``management area'' draws an arbitrary line within a portion of the
full range of the Pelagic Stock, which NMFS estimates to contain 5,528
whales.
Response: The MMPA defines a stock as ``a group of marine mammals
of the same species or smaller taxa in a common spatial arrangement,
that interbreed when mature.'' 16 U.S.C. 1362(11). The best scientific
information available suggests that, based on their proximity and
fidelity to central Pacific waters around Hawai[revaps]i, the
Hawai[revaps]i pelagic false killer whales are a demographically-
independent population and as such, they are managed as a single stock
under the MMPA. We know through telemetry tracks and resightings of
individual whales that the whales regularly use and return to the
waters around Hawai[revaps]i. Through reliance on data collected from
these whales, we defined an assessment area (referred to as management
area in the draft SAR) that represents the greatest known extent of the
Hawai[revaps]i pelagic stock's range at the time it was established,
and as such, the N<INF>min</INF> estimate derived from this area is the
greatest N<INF>min</INF> estimate for the stock that is supported by
the available data that still meets the requirement of the MMPA that
N<INF>min</INF> ``(A) is based on the best available scientific
information on abundance, incorporating the precision and variability
associated with such information; and (B) provides reasonable assurance
that the stock size
[[Page 104995]]
is equal to or greater than the estimate.'' (16 U.S.C. 1362(27)). HLA's
comment references a larger abundance, which appears to be for false
killer whales in the central Pacific. The relatively lower abundance
estimated within the assessment area as compared to the abundance
estimated for the full central Pacific is a reflection of the habitat
suitability and the relatively lower densities of false killer whales
in sub-tropical and temperate waters relative to the tropical
equatorial region.
Comment 19: HLA and the Council comment that recovery factor that
is greater than 0.5 should be used because the Hawai[revaps]i pelagic
stock of false killer whale is not considered depleted, strategic, or
threatened, the status of the stock is known, and such is supported by
the best available scientific information.
Response: Section 3.2.4 of the GAMMS states the default recovery
factor for depleted, threatened, and stocks of unknown status should be
0.5 based on a coefficient of variation (CV) equal or less than 0.3;
however, if the CV is greater than 0.3, the recovery factor should be
decreased to 0.48 to 0.40 depending on the CV. The status of the stock
relative to its Optimum Sustainable Population is unknown. Based on
public comment, NMFS has reevaluated its choice of recovery factor and
has modified the recovery factor and PBR within the SAR to reflect a
recovery factor of 0.44, an intermediate value that is derived from the
relative abundance of false killer whales within and outside of the EEZ
and the greater certainty within the Hawai[revaps]i EEZ (CV <0.3) and
significant uncertainty around the magnitude of M/SI attributed to
foreign fleets operating outside of the EEZ but within the assessment
area.
Comment 20: HLA recommends the SAR should be revised to reflect
zero M/SI from the deep-set fishery for both the insular and NWHI
stocks based on the best available information.
Response: The Hawai[revaps]i-based deep-set longline fishery's
efforts overlap with a small portion of the Main Hawai[revaps]ian
Islands (MHI) Insular stock and the Northwestern Hawai[revaps]ian
Islands (NWHI) stock boundaries; although, there has not been an
observed interaction within the overlap area with the MHI insular
stock. There have been three observed interactions within the overlap
area with the NWHI stock. The first two were in 2012, within the
current Longline Exclusion Zone, prior to TRT changes that eliminated
the seasonal contraction of that area. The third was in 2019, outside
the current Longline Exclusion Zone but within the overlap area of the
NWHI stock and the pelagic stock boundary. This interaction was first
presented in the 2021 SAR and remains within the current assessment. As
long as there is fishing effort within these stock boundaries or unless
the stock identity of a bycaught animal is established, accounting for
possible impact to the NWHI and MHI insular stocks is in accordance
with current bycatch evidence and with GAMMS section 3.1.
Comment 21: The Council recommends that NMFS not use the management
area boundary and associated abundance estimate using the Species
Distribution Models (SDMs) in the FKW SAR or for any management
purposes. For the area inside the EEZ, the Council recommends that NMFS
use the design-based abundance estimation approach as the basis for
assessing the stock until such time that a more rigorous and
independent evaluation of the SDM approach can be completed. The
Council's Scientific and Statistical Committee (SSC) found that the
design-based approach is the most appropriate for estimating abundance
inside the EEZ around Hawai[revaps]i, as it utilizes data from the EEZ-
wide cetacean survey intended for deriving abundance estimates, and
provides the most robust estimate of the abundance for the
corresponding area at the time of the 2017 survey. The Council further
recommends that NMFS prioritize conducting surveys outside the EEZ to
gather additional tagging and genetics data suitable for assessing that
portion of the population. Considering that the proposed management
area encompasses all recent Hawai[revaps]i deep-set longline fishery
interactions, the proposed boundary likely overestimates the relative
impact of the U.S. fleet on the pelagic stock while underestimating the
impact of foreign fleets.
Response: As discussed in Comment 17, NMFS has clarified in the
Hawai[revaps]i pelagic stock section of the SAR that EEZ-only
population size, Nmin, and PBR are included for comparison to previous
assessments only. The SSC's recommendation to rely upon the design-
based estimates neglected to consider the potential biases associated
with encounter rate variation for this and other stocks. The issue was
explored in depth within Bradford et al. (2020) and by the PSRG and
forms the basis of NMFS' use of the model-based estimates for
assessment purposes, as detailed within the SAR. The full abundance
approach (i.e., the design and model-based estimates) was reviewed by
three independent experts and the PSRG, collectively including several
experts in quantitative assessments, including SDMs. NMFS recently
completed a 30-day survey outside the assessment area (referred to as
management area in the draft SAR) and in a region of predicted high
false killer whale density, with the explicit goal of collecting
additional biological data to inform analysis of population structure
for pelagic false killer whales. NMFS will review the best scientific
information available, including survey and tagging data, to determine
whether a SAR revision is warranted during the next SAR review cycle.
The magnitude of possible foreign fleet bycatch does not alter the
conclusion that the U.S. fleet incidental M/SI exceeds PBR and must be
managed according to the take reduction process mandated in the MMPA.
Comment 22: The Council requested NMFS provide an explanation for
the reduced abundance estimate for the pelagic stock inside the EEZ in
the draft SAR (2,038) compared to Bradford et al. 2020 (2,086).
Response: The discrepancy between the draft 2023 SAR and Bradford
et al. 2020 is noted in the draft SAR. This discrepancy is because the
abundance estimate of 2,038 Hawai[revaps]i pelagic false killer whales
refers to the abundance of animals within the EEZ portion of the
assessment area (referred to as management area in the draft SAR);
there is a small portion of the EEZ that is outside of the assessment
area, which accounts for the small reduction in abundance between the
two estimates.
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Ecol. and Evol. 7:92-106. DOI: 10.1002/ece3.2615
Dated: December 18, 2024.
Evan Howell,
Director, Office of Science and Technology, National Marine Fisheries
Service.
[FR Doc. 2024-30664 Filed 12-23-24; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 3510-22-P
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