Notice2024-29073
Official Release of the MOVES5 Motor Vehicle Emissions Model for SIPs and Transportation Conformity
Primary source
Metadata and text below are from the Federal Register, a public-domain U.S. government work. Always verify the official published version before relying on it for any legal matter.
Published
December 11, 2024
Effective
December 11, 2024
Issuing agencies
Environmental Protection Agency
Abstract
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is announcing the availability of the latest major release of the MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) model, MOVES5, for official purposes outside of California. MOVES5 is the latest version of EPA's state-of-the science modeling tool for estimating emissions from cars, trucks, buses, and motorcycles based on the latest data and regulations. MOVES5 is available for use in state implementation plans (SIPs) and transportation conformity analyses outside of California. This notice starts a two-year grace period before MOVES5 will need to be used as the latest EPA emissions model for transportation conformity determinations outside of California, both in new regional emissions analyses and in new hot-spot analyses.
Full Text
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<title>Federal Register, Volume 89 Issue 238 (Wednesday, December 11, 2024)</title>
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[Federal Register Volume 89, Number 238 (Wednesday, December 11, 2024)]
[Notices]
[Pages 99862-99866]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [<a href="http://www.gpo.gov">www.gpo.gov</a>]
[FR Doc No: 2024-29073]
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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
[FRL-12127-01-OAR]
Official Release of the MOVES5 Motor Vehicle Emissions Model for
SIPs and Transportation Conformity
AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
ACTION: Notice of availability.
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SUMMARY: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is announcing the
availability of the latest major release of the MOtor Vehicle Emission
Simulator (MOVES) model, MOVES5, for official purposes outside of
California. MOVES5 is the latest version of EPA's state-of-the science
modeling tool for estimating emissions from cars, trucks, buses, and
motorcycles based on the latest data and regulations. MOVES5 is
available for use in state implementation plans (SIPs) and
transportation conformity analyses outside of California. This notice
starts a two-year grace period before MOVES5 will need to be used as
the latest EPA emissions model for transportation conformity
determinations outside of California, both in new regional emissions
analyses and in new hot-spot analyses.
DATES: EPA's announcement of the MOVES5 emissions model for SIPs and
transportation conformity determinations in states other than
California is effective December 11, 2024. This announcement starts a
two-year transportation conformity grace period that ends on December
11, 2026. After this date, MOVES5 will need to be used as the latest
EPA emissions model for new transportation conformity analyses outside
of California in both regional emissions analyses and in hot-spot
analysis.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: For technical model questions
regarding the official release or use of MOVES5, please email EPA at
<a href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#9df0f2fff4f1f8ddf8edfcb3faf2eb"><span class="__cf_email__" data-cfemail="e18c8e83888d84a1849180cf868e97">[email protected]</span></a>. For questions about SIPs, contact Kaitlyn Leffert at
<a href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#a5e9c0c3c3c0d7d18beec4ccd1c9dccbe5c0d5c48bc2cad3"><span class="__cf_email__" data-cfemail="5c10393a3a392e2872173d35283025321c392c3d723b332a">[email protected]</span></a>. For transportation conformity questions,
contact Aaron Letterly at <a href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#feb29b8a8a9b8c9287d0bf9f8c9190be9b8e9fd0999188"><span class="__cf_email__" data-cfemail="115d74656574637d683f5070637e7f517461703f767e67">[email protected]</span></a>.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
The contents of this notice are as follows:
I. General Information
[[Page 99863]]
II. What is MOVES5?
III. SIPs and MOVES5
IV. Transportation Conformity and MOVES5
I. General Information
A. Does this action apply to me?
Entities potentially impacted by the approval of MOVES5 are those
that adopt, approve, or fund transportation plans, transportation
improvement programs (TIPs), or transportation projects as defined in
40 CFR 93.101 and those that develop and submit SIPs to EPA. Regulated
categories and entities potentially affected by today's action include:
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Examples of regulated
Category entities
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Local government.......................... Local air quality and
transportation agencies,
including metropolitan
planning organizations
(MPOs).
State government.......................... State air quality and
transportation agencies.
Federal government........................ Department of Transportation
(Federal Highway
Administration (FHWA) and
Federal Transit
Administration (FTA)).
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This table is not intended to be exhaustive, but rather provides a
guide for readers regarding entities likely to be affected by the
release of MOVES. Other entities not listed in the table could also be
affected. To determine whether your organization is affected by this
action, you should carefully examine the transportation conformity
applicability requirements in 40 CFR 93.102. If you have questions
regarding the applicability of this action to a particular entity,
consult the persons listed in the preceding FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
CONTACT section.
B. How can I get copies of MOVES5 and other related information?
The official version of the MOVES5 model and supporting
documentation are available on EPA's MOVES website: <a href="https://www.epa.gov/moves">https://www.epa.gov/moves</a>. Individuals who want to receive EPA announcements
related to the MOVES5 model can subscribe to the EPA-MOBILENEWS email
listserv, which can be done at EPA's website at: <a href="https://www.epa.gov/moves/forms/epa-mobilenews-listserv">https://www.epa.gov/moves/forms/epa-mobilenews-listserv</a>.
Available guidance on how to apply MOVES5 for SIPs and
transportation conformity purposes can be found on EPA's transportation
conformity website, <a href="https://www.epa.gov/state-and-local-transportation/policy-and-technical-guidance-state-and-local-transportation">https://www.epa.gov/state-and-local-transportation/policy-and-technical-guidance-state-and-local-transportation</a>,\1\
including the ``MOVES5 Policy Guidance: Use of MOVES for State
Implementation Plan Development, Transportation Conformity, General
Conformity, and Other Purposes.'' (EPA-420-B-24-038, November 2024).
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\1\ Interested parties can find these documents under the
``Emission Models and Conformity'' and ``Project-Level Conformity''
topics on this website.
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EPA will continue to update these websites as other MOVES support
materials and guidance are developed or updated.
II. What is MOVES5?
MOVES5 is EPA's latest official motor vehicle emissions model for
state and local agencies to estimate volatile organic compounds (VOCs),
nitrogen oxides (NOX), particulate matter (PM<INF>2.5</INF> and
PM<INF>10</INF>), carbon monoxide (CO), and other pollutants and
precursors from cars, trucks, buses, and motorcycles for SIP purposes
and transportation conformity determinations outside of California.\2\
The model is based on analyses of millions of emission test results and
considerable advances in the Agency's understanding of vehicle
emissions. MOVES5 is a major revision to the MOVES series of models.
This model is the fifth major MOVES release.\3\
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\2\ MOVES can also model emissions in the District of Columbia,
Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Nonattainment and
maintenance areas located in California use the latest approved
version of the Emission FACtor (EMFAC) model.
\3\ For more information, see EPA's MOVES Versions in Limited
Current Use website at <a href="https://www.epa.gov/moves/moves-versions-limited-current-use">https://www.epa.gov/moves/moves-versions-limited-current-use</a>.
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MOVES5 includes new regulations, features, and significant new
data, as detailed in the MOVES5 technical reports. Notably, MOVES5
incorporates several important updates, including:
<bullet> Accounting for EPA's Light- and Medium-Duty Multi-
Pollutant Rule with higher projected electric vehicle (EV) fractions
and more stringent standards for carbon dioxide (CO<INF>2</INF>), PM,
non-methane organic gases (NMOG) and NOX.\4\
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\4\ See EPA's final rule, ``Multi-Pollutant Emissions Standards
for Model Years 2027 and Later Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
Vehicles,'' published in the Federal Register on April 18, 2024 (89
FR 27842).
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<bullet> Accounting for EPA's Heavy-Duty Greenhouse Gas Emissions-
Phase 3 Rule with higher projected EV fractions and updated energy
consumption estimates for heavy-duty EVs.\5\
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\5\ See EPA's final rule, ``Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards
for Heavy-Duty Vehicles--Phase 3,'' published in the Federal
Register on April 22, 2024 (89 FR 29440).
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<bullet> Incorporating new data on light-duty (LD) and heavy-duty
(HD) brake wear emissions.
<bullet> Expanding detailed calculations to vehicles up to 40 years
old, instead of 30.
<bullet> Updating onroad and nonroad fuel properties for calendar
year 2021 and later.
<bullet> Updated historical and forecast default vehicle miles
travelled (VMT), vehicle populations, age distributions, and fuel
distributions.
For additional information on the updates included in MOVES5,
please refer to the ``Overview of EPA's MOtor Vehicle Emissions
Simulator (MOVES5),'' found at EPA's MOVES website. Specific
information about MOVES5 inputs and algorithms can be found on EPA's
websites for MOVES Onroad Technical Reports and MOVES Nonroad Technical
Reports.\6\
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\6\ For more information, see EPA's MOVES website: <a href="https://www.epa.gov/moves">https://www.epa.gov/moves</a>.
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Like its predecessors, MOVES5 can estimate vehicle exhaust and
evaporative emissions as well as brake wear and tire wear emissions for
criteria pollutants and precursors. Also, like previous versions,
MOVES5 does not estimate emissions of re-entrained road dust. To
estimate emissions from re-entrained road dust, practitioners should
continue to use the latest approved methodologies.\7\
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\7\ See EPA's notice of availability, ``Official Release of the
January 2011 AP-42 Method for Estimating Re-Entrained Road Dust from
Paved Roads,'' published in the Federal Register on February 4, 2011
(76 FR 6328).
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The structure of MOVES5 is fundamentally the same as MOVES4,
although there are some minor differences, e.g., in the user interface.
However, inputs developed by model users for previous versions of MOVES
will need to be updated to work with MOVES5. Model run time may differ
depending on the type of run and user inputs and computer
configuration. As for emissions, EPA performed a comparison of onroad
emissions from MOVES5 to emissions from MOVES4 using default
information in MOVES5 at the national level, and for three sample urban
counties with different local travel patterns and ambient conditions.
In general, compared to MOVES4, MOVES5 emissions of NOX,
PM<INF>2.5</INF>, VOC, and CO tend to be higher in the 2020s and 2030s.
In the longer term, emissions of these pollutants in MOVES5 are lower
due to the emissions reductions of new EPA regulations. Note that
results will vary based on the pollutant selected and that area's local
inputs.
III. SIPs and MOVES5
EPA has articulated its policy regarding the use of MOVES5 in SIP
development in its ``MOVES5 Policy
[[Page 99864]]
Guidance: Use of MOVES for State Implementation Plan Development,
Transportation Conformity, General Conformity, and Other Purposes''
(EPA-420-B-24-038, November 2024). Today's notice highlights certain
aspects of the guidance, but state and local governments should refer
to the guidance for more detailed information on how and when to use
MOVES5 in reasonable further progress SIPs, attainment demonstrations,
maintenance plans, inventory updates, and other SIP submissions.
MOVES5 should be used in ozone, CO, PM, and nitrogen dioxide
(NO<INF>2</INF>) SIP development as expeditiously as possible, as there
is no grace period for the use of MOVES5 in SIPs. The Clean Air Act
requires that SIP inventories and control measures be based on the most
current information and applicable models that are available when a SIP
is developed.\8\ States other than California should use the latest
version of MOVES that is available at the time that a SIP is developed,
which is now MOVES5. Using MOVES5 for SIPs that will be submitted in
the future ensures that they are based on the most accurate estimates
of emissions possible.
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\8\ See Clean Air Act section 172(c)(3). Also see the discussion
of emissions inventory requirements in the ``Fine Particulate Matter
National Ambient Air Quality Standards: State Implementation Plan
Requirements'' rule (81 FR 58029, August 24, 2016) and in the
``Implementation of the 2015 National Ambient Air Quality Standards
for Ozone: Nonattainment Area State Implementation Plan
Requirements'' rule (83 FR 63022, December 6, 2018).
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However, EPA recognizes the time and level of effort involved in
SIP development, so in cases where state and local agencies have
already completed significant work on a SIP with MOVES4 (e.g.,
attainment modeling has already been completed with MOVES4), they may
continue to rely on this earlier version. In addition, due to the fact
that EPA is releasing multiple versions of MOVES in a short timeframe,
MOVES3 may have already been used in SIP development. In areas where
state and local agencies have already completed significant work on a
SIP with MOVES3, MOVES3 may continue to be used in SIP development. EPA
believes this would be only a limited number of cases. States should
consult with their EPA Regional Office if they have questions about how
MOVES5 affects SIPs under development in specific nonattainment or
maintenance areas. Early consultation can facilitate EPA's adequacy
finding for SIP motor vehicle emissions budgets for transportation
conformity purposes or for the SIP approval process.
The Clean Air Act does not require states to revise submitted SIPs
or SIPs that have already been approved simply because a new motor
vehicle emissions model is now available.\9\ States can choose to
update these SIPs with MOVES5, for example, if it is determined that it
is appropriate to update motor vehicle emissions budgets (``budgets'')
with the model for future conformity determinations. However, as stated
above, states should use MOVES5 where SIP development is in its initial
stages or has not progressed far enough along that switching from a
previous model version would create a significant adverse impact on
state resources.
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\9\ Sierra Club v. EPA, 356 F.3d. 296, 308 (D.C. Cir. 2004)
(``To require states to revise completed plans every time a new
model is announced would lead to significant costs and potentially
endless delays in the approval processes.'')
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Incorporating MOVES5 into the SIP now could assist areas in
mitigating possible transportation conformity difficulties in the
future after the MOVES5 conformity grace period ends. New regional
emissions analyses using EPA's emissions model that are started after
the grace period is over must be based on MOVES5 (40 CFR 93.111), so
having MOVES5-based SIP budgets in place at that time could provide
more consistency with transportation conformity determinations. For
complete explanations of how MOVES5 is to be implemented for SIP
purposes, refer to the ``MOVES5 Policy Guidance: Use of MOVES for State
Implementation Plan Development, Transportation Conformity, General
Conformity, and Other Purposes.'' (EPA-420-B-24-038).
IV. Transportation Conformity and MOVES5
Transportation conformity is required under CAA section 176(c) (42
U.S.C. 7506(c)) to ensure that federally funded or approved highway and
transit activities are consistent with (``conform to'') the purpose of
the SIP. Conformity to the purpose of the SIP means that transportation
activities will not cause or contribute to new air quality violations,
worsen existing violations, or delay timely attainment of the relevant
national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) or any interim
milestones. EPA's transportation conformity rule (40 CFR parts 51 and
93) establishes the criteria and procedures for determining whether
metropolitan transportation plans, TIPs, and federally supported
highway and transit projects conform to the SIP. Transportation
conformity applies to designated nonattainment and maintenance areas
\10\ for transportation-related criteria pollutants: ozone,
PM<INF>2.5</INF>, PM<INF>10</INF>, CO, and NO<INF>2</INF>.
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\10\ ``Maintenance areas'' are those areas that were initially
designated nonattainment for a criteria pollutant and subsequently
redesignated to attainment after 1990. Maintenance areas have SIPs
developed under CAA section 175A. (40 CFR 93.101).
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In this notice, EPA is announcing the availability of MOVES5 for
use in transportation conformity determinations outside of California.
EPA is also establishing a two-year grace period before MOVES5 will
need to be used in regional emissions analyses for transportation
conformity determinations of transportation plans and transportation
improvement programs (TIPs) \11\ and in hot-spot analyses for project-
level transportation conformity determinations which use EPA's
emissions model. The MOVES5 grace period for regional emissions and
hot-spot analyses applies to the use of MOVES5 and any future minor
revisions that occur during the grace period.
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\11\ The grace period also applies in the case that a regional
emissions analysis is done for a project not from a conforming
transportation plan and TIP (i.e., a project in an isolated rural
area). See the transportation conformity rule at 40 CFR 93.101 for
the definition of an isolated rural area and 40 CFR 93.109(g) for
how conformity is done in an isolated rural area.
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This MOVES5 grace period is separate and distinct from the two-year
grace period established with the release of the previous version of
the model, MOVES4. The two-year grace period established by EPA's
September 2023 MOVES4 Notice of Availability in the Federal Register is
unchanged by the release of MOVES5 and continues to be in effect until
September 12, 2025.\12\ For more information, see the MOVES4 Notice of
Availability in the Federal Register and the ``MOVES5 Policy Guidance:
Use of MOVES for State Implementation Plan Development, Transportation
Conformity, General Conformity, and Other Purposes'' (EPA-420-B-24-038,
November 2024).
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\12\ See EPA's Notice of Availability, ``Official Release of the
MOVES4 Motor Vehicle Emissions Model for SIPs and Transportation
Conformity,'' published in the Federal Register on September 12,
2023 (88 FR 62567).
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The remainder of this section describes how the transportation
conformity grace period was determined and summarizes how it will be
implemented, including those circumstances when the MOVES5 grace period
could be shorter than two years for regional emissions analyses.
However, for complete explanations of how MOVES5 is to be implemented
for transportation conformity, including details about using MOVES5
during the grace period, refer to the ``MOVES5 Policy Guidance: Use of
MOVES for
[[Page 99865]]
State Implementation Plan Development, Transportation Conformity,
General Conformity, and Other Purposes.'' (EPA-420-B-24-038).
A. Why is EPA establishing a two-year conformity grace period?
Section 176(c)(1) of the Clean Air Act states that ``. . . [t]he
determination of conformity shall be based on the most recent estimates
of emissions, and such estimates shall be determined from the most
recent population, employment, travel, and congestion estimates . .
.''. Additionally, the transportation conformity rule (40 CFR 93.111)
requires conformity determinations to be based on ``the latest emission
estimation model available,'' and further states that this requirement
is satisfied if the most current version of EPA's motor vehicle
emissions model is used in the conformity analysis. When EPA announces
a new emissions model, such as MOVES5, we establish a grace period
before the model needs to be used for transportation conformity
purposes (40 CFR 93.111(b)). In consultation with DOT, EPA must
consider the degree of change in the emissions model and the effects of
the new model on the transportation planning process (40 CFR
93.111(b)(2)). The transportation conformity rule provides that EPA
will establish a grace period for new emissions models of between three
and 24 months (40 CFR 93.111(b)(1)).
EPA articulated its intentions for establishing the length of a
conformity grace period in the preamble to the 1993 transportation
conformity rule (November 24, 1993; 58 FR 62211):
``EPA and DOT [the Department of Transportation] will consider
extending the grace period if the effects of the new emissions model
are so significant that previous SIP demonstrations of what emission
levels are consistent with attainment would be substantially affected.
In such cases, States should have an opportunity to revise their SIPs
before MPOs must use the model's new emissions factors.''
In consultation with DOT, EPA considered the degree of change in
MOVES5 and the effects of the new model on the transportation planning
process (40 CFR 93.111(b)(2)). EPA considered the time it will take
state and local transportation and air quality agencies to conduct and
provide technical support for analyses. State and local agencies will
need to become familiar with the MOVES5 emissions model and will need
to convert existing data for use in MOVES5. Since 1993, the fundamental
purpose of section 93.111(b) of the transportation conformity rule has
been to provide a sufficient amount of time for MPOs and other state
and local agencies to learn and employ new emissions models. The
transition to a new emissions model for conformity involves more than
learning to use the new model and preparing input data and model
output. After model start-up is complete, state and local agencies also
need to consider how the model affects regional emissions analysis
results and whether SIP and/or transportation plan/TIP changes are
necessary to assure future conformity determinations.
The two-year conformity grace period also provides sufficient time
for state and local agencies to learn and apply new technical guidance
and training that reflect MOVES5. EPA provides guidance on how to run
the latest MOVES version for SIP and transportation conformity purposes
with the release of the model \13\ and is working to update other
guidance documents and training materials as quickly as possible.
Generally, existing guidance and training applies to MOVES5 as noted on
EPA's website, and EPA will notify MOVES5 users when updates to these
materials are available. Training materials will continue to address
different levels of state and local expertise.
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\13\ Refer to EPA's ``MOVES5 Technical Guidance: Using MOVES to
Prepare Emission Inventories for State Implementation Plans and
Transportation Conformity,'' EPA-420-B-24-043, November 2024,
available on EPA's website at: <a href="https://www.epa.gov/state-and-local-transportation/policy-and-technical-guidance-state-and-local-transportation">https://www.epa.gov/state-and-local-transportation/policy-and-technical-guidance-state-and-local-transportation</a>.
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In addition, many agencies will be implementing the transition to
MOVES5 for PM and CO hot-spot analyses for applicable projects in those
nonattainment and maintenance areas, with each analysis potentially
involving multiple state and local agencies. States with CO hot-spot
protocols that were previously approved into the SIP (40 CFR
93.123(a)(1)) that are based on a previous version of MOVES will need
time to revise them. Finally, EPA considered the general time and
monetary resource constraints in which state and local agencies
currently operate. Upon considerations of all these factors, EPA is
establishing a two-year grace period, which begins today and ends on
December 11, 2026, before MOVES5 needs to be used for new
transportation conformity analyses outside of California.
B. Circumstances When the MOVES5 Grace Period Will Be Shorter Than Two
Years
The MOVES5 grace period for regional emissions analyses will be
shorter than two years for a given pollutant if an area revises its SIP
and motor vehicle emissions budgets with MOVES5 and such budgets have
been found adequate or approved into the SIP prior to the end of the
two-year grace period. In this case, the new regional emissions
analysis must use MOVES5 if the conformity determination is based on a
MOVES5-based budget (40 CFR 93.111).
Areas that are designated nonattainment or maintenance for more
than one pollutant may rely on both MOVES5 and MOVES4 to determine
conformity for different pollutants during the MOVES5 grace period. For
example, if an area revises a previously submitted (but not approved)
PM<INF>10</INF> SIP with MOVES5 and EPA finds these revised MOVES5
budgets adequate for conformity, such budgets would apply for
conformity on the effective date of the Federal Register notice
announcing EPA's adequacy finding. In this example, if the area is
nonattainment for PM<INF>10</INF> and ozone, the MOVES5 grace period
would end for PM<INF>10</INF> regional emissions analyses once EPA
found the new MOVES5-based SIP budgets adequate. However, MOVES4 could
continue to be used for ozone-related regional emissions analyses begun
before the end of the MOVES5 grace period.\14\ Refer to the MOVES5
Policy Guidance for additional details.
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\14\ In this example, such an area would use MOVES5 to develop a
regional emissions analysis for PM<INF>10</INF> for comparison to
the revised MOVES5-based budgets (e.g., PM<INF>10</INF> budgets).
The regional emissions analysis for ozone could be based on MOVES4
for the VOC and NOX budgets in the ozone SIP for the remainder of
the conformity grace period.
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In addition, the length of the MOVES5 grace period for hot-spot
analyses would not be affected by an early submission of MOVES5-based
budgets. In the above example, the two-year grace period for
PM<INF>10</INF> hot-spot analyses would continue to apply even if the
grace period is shortened for regional PM<INF>10</INF> conformity
analyses. EPA Regional Offices should be consulted for questions
regarding such situations in multi-pollutant areas.
In addition, in most cases, if the state revises previously
approved budgets based on an earlier EPA emissions model, the revised
MOVES5 budgets could not be used for conformity purposes until EPA
approves them, i.e., approves the SIP revision. In general, submitted
SIPs cannot supersede approved budgets until the submitted SIP is
approved. See 40 CFR 93.118(e)(1).
However, 40 CFR 93.118(e)(1) allows an approved budget to be
replaced by an adequate budget if EPA's approval of the initial budgets
specifies that the budgets
[[Page 99866]]
being approved may be replaced in the future by new adequate budgets.
This flexibility has been used in limited situations in the past. In
such cases, the MOVES5-based budgets would be used for conformity
purposes once they have been found adequate, if requested by the state
in its SIP submission and specified in EPA's SIP approval. States
should consult with their EPA Regional Office to determine if this
flexibility applies to their situation.
C. Use of MOVES5 for Regional Emissions Analyses During the Grace
Period
During the conformity grace period, areas should use interagency
consultation to examine how MOVES5 will impact their future
transportation plan and TIP conformity determinations, including
regional emissions analyses. Isolated rural areas should also consider
how future regional emissions analyses will be affected when the MOVES5
grace period ends. Areas should carefully consider whether the SIP and
budgets should be revised with MOVES5 or if transportation plans and
TIPs should be revised before the end of the conformity grace period,
since doing so may be necessary to ensure conformity in the future.
Finally, the transportation conformity rule provides flexibility
for completing conformity determinations based on regional emissions
analyses that use MOVES4 that are started before the end of the grace
period. Regional emissions analyses that are started during the MOVES5
grace period can use either MOVES5 or MOVES4. The interagency
consultation process should be used if it is unclear if a MOVES4-based
analysis was begun before the end of the grace period. If there are
questions about which model should be used in a conformity
determination, the EPA Regional Office can be consulted.
When the grace period ends on December 11, 2026, MOVES5 will become
the only EPA motor vehicle emissions model for regional emissions
analyses for transportation conformity in states other than California.
In general, this means that all new transportation plan and TIP
conformity determinations started after the end of the grace period
must be based on MOVES5, even if the SIP is based on MOVES4 or an older
version of the MOVES model.
D. Use of MOVES5 for Project-Level Hot-Spot Analyses During the
Conformity Grace Period
The MOVES5 grace period also applies to the use of MOVES5 for CO,
PM<INF>10</INF> and PM<INF>2.5</INF> hot-spot analyses. Sections 93.116
and 93.123 of the transportation conformity regulation contain the
requirements for when a hot-spot analysis is required for project-level
conformity determinations.\15\ The transportation conformity rule
provides flexibility for analyses that are started before the end of
the grace period. A conformity determination for a transportation
project may be based on a previous model if the analysis was begun
before or during the grace period, and if the final environmental
document for the project is issued no more than three years after the
issuance of the draft environmental document (40 CFR 93.111(c)).
Interagency consultation should be used if it is unclear if a previous
analysis was begun before the end of the grace period. For CO,
PM<INF>10</INF> and PM<INF>2.5</INF> hot-spot analyses that start
during the MOVES5 grace period, project sponsors can choose to use
MOVES5 or MOVES4. Any new CO, PM<INF>10</INF> or PM<INF>2.5</INF> hot-
spot analyses for conformity purposes begun after the end of the MOVES5
grace period must be based on MOVES5.
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\15\ In CO nonattainment and maintenance areas, a hot-spot
analysis is required for all non-exempt projects, with quantitative
hot-spot analyses being required for larger, congested intersections
and other projects (40 CFR 93.123(a)(1)). In addition, in
PM<INF>2.5</INF> and PM<INF>10</INF> nonattainment and maintenance
areas, the transportation conformity regulation requires that a
quantitative hot-spot analysis be completed for certain projects
(see 40 CFR 93.123(b)(1)).
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Interagency consultation must be used to evaluate and choose
model(s) and associated methods and assumptions to be used in hot-spot
analyses and regional emissions analyses (40 CFR 93.105(c)(1)(i)). This
includes which MOVES version to use for a hot-spot analysis. EPA
encourages project sponsors to use the consultation process to
determine which option may be most appropriate for a given situation.
For questions about how the MOVES grace periods apply in a project-
level conformity determination, contact your EPA Regional Office.
EPA has guidance on how to conduct quantitative PM<INF>2.5</INF>
and PM<INF>10</INF> hot-spot modeling for transportation conformity
purposes, and on how to use MOVES for a CO hot-spot analysis. See EPA's
``Project-level Conformity'' website, <a href="https://www.epa.gov/state-and-local-transportation/project-level-conformity-and-hot-spot-analyses">https://www.epa.gov/state-and-local-transportation/project-level-conformity-and-hot-spot-analyses</a>,
for the latest information and guidance documents on how to conduct CO,
PM<INF>10</INF> and PM<INF>2.5</INF> hot-spot modeling for
transportation conformity purposes.
E. FHWA's CO Categorical Hot-Spot Finding
FHWA released the most recent CO categorical hot-spot finding for
intersection projects on January 31, 2023, that was based on
MOVES3.\16\ Until September 12, 2025, a project sponsor outside of
California may continue to rely on the categorical finding for
applicable projects that are determined through interagency
consultation to be covered by the finding's parameters. However, any
new CO hot-spot analyses for conformity purposes begun after September
12, 2025, would not be able to rely on the MOVES3-based January 2023 CO
categorical hot-spot finding.
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\16\ See <a href="https://www.epa.gov/state-and-local-transportation/project-level-conformity-and-hot-spot-analyses#cohotspot">https://www.epa.gov/state-and-local-transportation/project-level-conformity-and-hot-spot-analyses#cohotspot</a>.
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F. CO Hot-spot Protocols that Were Previously Approved into the SIP
Section 93.123(a)(1) of the transportation conformity regulation
allows areas to develop alternate procedures for determining localized
CO hot-spot analyses, when developed through interagency consultation
and approved by the EPA Regional Administrator. Some states have chosen
in the past to develop such procedures based on previous EPA emissions
models.
During the MOVES5 grace period, areas with previously approved CO
hot-spot protocols based on MOVES4 may continue to rely on these
protocols. Once the MOVES5 two-year grace period ends, new CO hot-spot
analyses for conformity purposes will need to be based onMOVES5 and
thus may no longer rely on CO hot-spot protocols based on MOVES4 or
earlier versions.
William Charmley,
Director, Assessment and Standards Division, Office of Transportation
and Air Quality.
[FR Doc. 2024-29073 Filed 12-10-24; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6560-50-P
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This is legal information, not legal advice. Laws vary by jurisdiction and change frequently. Always verify current law with official sources and consult a licensed attorney in your jurisdiction for advice on your specific situation.