Notice2024-25851
Waiver of Launch Collective Risk Limit for a Near-Orbital Trajectory
Primary source
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Published
November 7, 2024
Issuing agencies
Transportation DepartmentFederal Aviation Administration
Abstract
This notice concerns a petition for waiver submitted to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) by Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) to waive the launch collective risk limit of 1 x 10<SUP>-4</SUP> expected casualties (E<INF>c</INF>) for Starship Super Heavy missions that utilize a near-orbital trajectory. The near-orbital Starship Super Heavy missions have been deemed suborbital such that a single launch collective risk limit of 1 x 10<SUP>-4</SUP> E<INF>c</INF> has been applied to cover the aggregate of the risks from the suborbital launch and suborbital reentry phases of each mission. The SpaceX petition requests an increase to the collective risk limit, to not exceed 2 x 10<SUP>-4</SUP> E<INF>c</INF>, with the condition that neither the suborbital launch nor suborbital reentry risks exceed 1 x 10<SUP>-4</SUP> E<INF>c</INF> individually. The FAA grants the petition for near-orbital Starship Super Heavy missions to allow a risk budget that parallels but remains consistent with an orbital mission profile that has a separate risk limit of 1 x 10<SUP>-4</SUP> E<INF>c</INF> for both the launch and reentry phases.
Full Text
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<title>Federal Register, Volume 89 Issue 216 (Thursday, November 7, 2024)</title>
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[Federal Register Volume 89, Number 216 (Thursday, November 7, 2024)]
[Notices]
[Pages 88338-88340]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [<a href="http://www.gpo.gov">www.gpo.gov</a>]
[FR Doc No: 2024-25851]
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DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
Federal Aviation Administration
Waiver of Launch Collective Risk Limit for a Near-Orbital
Trajectory
AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Department of
Transportation.
ACTION: Notice of waiver.
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SUMMARY: This notice concerns a petition for waiver submitted to the
Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) by Space Exploration Technologies
Corporation (SpaceX) to waive the launch collective risk limit of 1 x
10<SUP>-4</SUP> expected casualties (E<INF>c</INF>) for Starship Super
Heavy missions that utilize a near-orbital trajectory. The near-orbital
Starship Super Heavy missions have been deemed suborbital such that a
single launch collective risk limit of 1 x 10<SUP>-4</SUP>
E<INF>c</INF> has been applied to cover the aggregate of the risks from
the suborbital launch and suborbital reentry phases of each mission.
The SpaceX petition requests an increase to the collective risk limit,
to not exceed 2 x 10<SUP>-4</SUP> E<INF>c</INF>, with the condition
that neither the suborbital launch nor suborbital reentry risks exceed
1 x 10<SUP>-4</SUP> E<INF>c</INF> individually. The FAA grants the
petition for near-orbital Starship Super Heavy missions to allow a risk
budget that parallels but remains consistent with an orbital mission
profile that has a separate risk limit of 1 x 10<SUP>-4</SUP>
E<INF>c</INF> for both the launch and reentry phases.
DATES: Issued in Washington, DC, on July 31, 2024.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: For technical questions concerning
this waiver, contact Paul Wilde, Senior Technical Specialist,
Commercial Space Transportation--Office of Operational Safety, 800
Independence Avenue SW, Washington, DC 20591; telephone: (202) 267-
5727; email: <a href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#512130243d7f26383d3534113730307f363e27"><span class="__cf_email__" data-cfemail="265647534a08514f4a42436640474708414950">[email protected]</span></a>.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Background
On April 18, 2024, SpaceX submitted a waiver petition to the
Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA's) Office of Commercial Space
Transportation (AST) requesting relief from 14 CFR
[[Page 88339]]
450.101(a)(1)(i) for a unique near-orbital trajectory SpaceX designed
for the initial Starship Super Heavy launches from Boca Chica in Texas.
SpaceX requested an increase to the collective risk criteria, to not
exceed 2 x 10<SUP>-4</SUP> E<INF>c</INF>, with neither suborbital
launch nor suborbital reentry risks exceeding 1 x 10<SUP>-4</SUP>
E<INF>c</INF>. SpaceX requested that the waiver be effective for
Starship Super Heavy launches starting with Flight 4 and beyond that
utilize a near-orbital trajectory, where the maximum perigee altitude
is less than +130 km and greater than -50 km. Additionally, SpaceX
requested a waiver of the 60-day requirement for submission of waiver
petitions per Sec. 404.5(a). SpaceX updated its request on May 17,
2024. with additional rationale to support the waiver petition. On June
4, 2024, the FAA notified SpaceX that the waiver request was still
under evaluation and there would be no determination prior to the
planned launch of Flight 4 on June 6, 2024. SpaceX requested the FAA
consider the waiver for the next flight, namely Flight 5. The request
to waive the procedural requirements set forth in Sec. 404.5(a) is no
longer applicable as SpaceX since requested the waiver to apply
starting with Flight 5.
Near-Orbital Trajectory of Starship Super Heavy Missions
SpaceX's initial developmental test missions are for launches
conducted on a near-orbital trajectory, where the nominal trajectory
does not achieve orbital insertion as defined in Sec. 401.7.\1\
Therefore, the FAA has considered each mission a suborbital launch that
includes a suborbital reentry, and has applied a single launch
collective risk limit of 1 x 10<SUP>-4</SUP> E<INF>c</INF> in
accordance with Sec. 450.101(a)(1)(i). Per Sec. 450.3(b)(3)(iii), for
a suborbital launch that includes a suborbital reentry, launch ends
after reaching apogee.
The E<INF>c</INF> criteria identified in Sec. 450.101 apply to
flight. SpaceX, in its waiver petition, divides the phases of Starship
Super Heavy flight into two distinct phases. First, SpaceX identifies
the launch phase \2\ to be from ignition of the Super Heavy booster
(first stage) to the initial second engine cutoff (SECO-1) of the
Starship upper stage. In addition, the launch phase includes stage
separation, followed by the Super Heavy booster performing a boostback
burn to return to the launch site or a designated landing area
offshore. After stage separation, Starship ignites its engines until
SECO-1. Due to the shallow perigee of the Starship trajectory after
SECO-1, Earth's gravity will cause the Starship to passively enter the
Earth's atmosphere in either a controlled or uncontrolled suborbital
reentry. For a controlled suborbital reentry, Starship may perform a
landing burn prior to ocean splashdown. An uncontrolled suborbital
reentry of Starship would almost certainly result in an in-air breakup
with debris expected to land within published hazard areas.\3\ In both
scenarios, Starship hazardous debris \4\ would impact the open ocean
between Madagascar and Australia. SpaceX identifies the suborbital
reentry phase of the Starship flight to be from SECO-1 of the Starship
to its final impact or landing because the perigee only decreases in
the post-SECO-1 phases of flight.
Waiver Criteria
Chapter 509 allows the FAA to waive a license requirement if the
waiver (1) will not jeopardize public health and safety, safety of
property; (2) will not jeopardize national security and foreign policy
interests of the United States; and (3) will be in the public interest.
See 51 U.S.C. 50905(b)(3); 14 CFR 404.5(b).
Section 450.101(a)(1)(i) Waiver Petition
Section 450.101(a)(1)(i) requires that the risk to all members of
the public, excluding persons in aircraft and neighboring operations
personnel, must not exceed 1 x 10<SUP>-4</SUP> E<INF>c</INF>. For a
suborbital launch, or a suborbital launch with a suborbital reentry,\5\
the 1 x 10<SUP>-4</SUP> E<INF>c</INF> in Sec. 450.101(a)(1)(i) applies
from liftoff through final impact or landing. SpaceX's waiver petition
is for its Starship Super Heavy missions from Boca Chica that involve a
near-orbital trajectory, where the Starship almost obtains the
necessary position and velocity to achieve orbital insertion (i.e.,
make it into orbit). Because Starship does not achieve orbital
insertion, the FAA considers the near-orbital Starship Super Heavy
missions to be suborbital in which a single launch collective risk
limit of 1 x 10<SUP>-4</SUP> E<INF>c</INF> is applied to cover the sum
or aggregate of the risks from the suborbital launch and suborbital
reentry phases of each mission. SpaceX seeks relief from the
application of a single launch collective risk limit required by Sec.
450.101(a)(1)(i) and requests that the FAA allow for two separate 1 x
10<SUP>-4</SUP> E<INF>c</INF> risk limits, one for the suborbital
launch phase and one for the suborbital reentry phase, similar to what
is allocated to an orbital mission when a vehicle achieves orbital
insertion and then reenters from Earth orbit.
In making a waiver determination, the FAA must analyze whether the
waiver: (1) would jeopardize public health and safety or safety of
property; (2) would jeopardize national security and foreign policy
interests of the United States; and (3) is in the public interest. See
51 U.S.C. 50905(b)(3); 14 CFR 404.5(b).
i. Public Health and Safety and Safety of Property
The FAA finds that the trajectory proposed by SpaceX is more like
an orbital trajectory than a suborbital trajectory. Because suborbital
trajectories do not involve separate, licensable reentries, they are
afforded one risk budget. By contrast, orbital trajectories with a
return result in a separate and licensable reentry which necessitates a
risk budget for launch and a risk budget for reentry. For future
flights of the Starship Super Heavy that use this trajectory and end in
the Indian Ocean, SpaceX has identified a trajectory that would allow
the FAA to apply two separate risk budgets without jeopardizing public
health and safety. This increase in the collective risk threshold from
1 x 10<SUP>-4</SUP> to 2 x 10<SUP>-4</SUP> E<INF>c</INF>, with neither
launch nor reentry exceeding 1 x 10<SUP>-4</SUP> E<INF>c</INF>, exposes
the public to overall less risk than that of an orbital mission
followed by a separate reentry, given the current Starship flight
history. SpaceX demonstrated that utilizing the near-orbital trajectory
targeting an Indian Ocean landing, which avoids random reentry risk
from failures that may occur while on-orbit and provides near certainty
that any hazardous debris would impact locations in the Indian Ocean,
will not jeopardize public health and safety. The FAA independently
found that the public risk associated with a random reentry of the
Starship, at this stage in its development, would be 40 to 50 times
higher than the collective risk threshold of 1 x 10<SUP>-4</SUP>
E<INF>c</INF>. Forcing Starship engine cut-off to occur just prior to
reaching orbital perigee (and thus maintaining a suborbital trajectory)
allows SpaceX to predict with high certainty debris impact locations
given a failure.
For an orbital launch, the criteria in Sec. 450.101(a) apply from
liftoff through orbital insertion. For a suborbital launch, or a
suborbital launch and reentry, the criteria in Sec. 450.101(a) apply
from liftoff through final impact or landing. To determine whether a
launch is orbital or suborbital, the FAA determines whether the
trajectory is a suborbital trajectory or achieves orbital insertion.
The near-orbital trajectory targeting an Indian Ocean landing as
proposed by SpaceX does not fully meet the definition of suborbital
trajectory per Sec. 401.7, nor does the operation achieve orbital
insertion. Specifically, the near orbital trajectory does not fully
meet the definition of suborbital
[[Page 88340]]
trajectory because under Sec. 401.7, a suborbital trajectory is when
the vacuum instantaneous impact point (IIP) of a vehicle's flight path
does not leave the surface of the Earth. Starship's nominal IIP leaves
the earth for a few seconds. Secondly, the near orbital trajectory is
not an orbital trajectory because it does not lead to orbital
insertion. Orbital insertion is defined in Sec. 401.7 as the point at
which a vehicle achieves a minimum 70-nautical mile perigee based on a
computation that accounts for drag. In this case, the Starship Super
Heavy does not achieve a 70-nautical mile perigee. Because Starship
does not achieve orbital insertion, it conducts a suborbital reentry,
which is different from a reentry from Earth orbit that involves a
final health check prior to initiating deorbit. The near-orbital
trajectory presents a unique circumstance as it relates to the
application of the safety criteria outlined in Sec. 450.101.
The FAA finds that granting SpaceX a waiver to Sec.
450.101(a)(1)(i) with the following terms and conditions would not
jeopardize public health and safety or safety of property:
<bullet> The risk to all members of the public, excluding persons
in aircraft and neighboring operations personnel, must not exceed 1 x
10<SUP>-4</SUP> E<INF>c</INF> for the phases of flight from the lift-
off of the Super Heavy first stage to the initial SECO-1 of Starship.
<bullet> The risk to all members of the public, excluding persons
in aircraft and neighboring operations personnel, must not exceed 1 x
10<SUP>-4</SUP> E<INF>c</INF> for the phases of flight from the initial
SECO-1 to final impact or landing.
<bullet> The risk to all members of the public, excluding persons
in aircraft and neighboring operations personnel, must not exceed 2 x
10<SUP>-4</SUP> E<INF>c</INF> for all phases of flight from lift-off
through final impact or landing.
<bullet> The Starship mission profile utilizes a near-orbital
trajectory where maximum perigee is less than positive 130 km and
greater than negative 50 km, and the normal trajectory limits predicted
debris impacts to broad ocean areas in the Indian Ocean.
ii. National Security and Foreign Policy Implications
The FAA has identified no national security or foreign policy
implications associated with granting this waiver.
iii. Public Interest
On June 20, 2024, the FAA received a letter from the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Human Landing System (HLS)
program conveying the importance and criticality of the Starship Super
Heavy system and rapid iterations of flight test operations to NASA and
its Artemis program. The Starship program, and these test flights, are
essential to further the technology required to support the NASA
Artemis program and key to returning U.S. Government astronauts to the
moon, as reinforced by the letter from NASA. For these reasons, the FAA
finds that granting this waiver will be in the public interest.
Endnotes
\1\ Sec. 401.7 states that ``Orbital insertion means the point
at which a vehicle achieves a minimum 70-nautical mile perigee based
on a computation that accounts for drag.'' Seventy nautical miles
equals 130 km.
\2\ The FAA notes that this is different from the FAA's
definition of launch in 14 CFR 401.7, which encompasses certain pre-
and post-flight activities when the launch occurs from a U.S. site.
\3\ This is because the loads on the Starship would exceed its
structural limits.
\4\ Sec. 401.7 states that ``Hazardous debris means any object
or substance capable of causing a casualty or loss of functionality
to a critical asset. Hazardous debris includes inert debris and
explosive debris such as an intact vehicle, vehicle fragments, any
detached vehicle component whether intact or in fragments, payload,
and any planned jettison bodies.''
\5\ The FAA introduced suborbital reentry in its experimental
permit final rulemaking in 2007 and reaffirmed its position in the
Streamlined Launch and Reentry License Requirements final rule (85
FR 79566, 79583 (2020)). The CSLAA describes suborbital rockets as
reentering. See 51 U.S.C. 50905(b)(4) and 50906. Congress made clear
that a suborbital rocket can ``reenter'' for purposes of licensing
or permitting. It is not necessary to reach orbit to be in outer
space. Although a suborbital rocket does not reach the velocity
necessary to orbit the Earth, the vehicle can reach altitudes
sufficient to be considered outer space.
James Hatt,
Space Policy Division Manager, Commercial Space Transportation, Federal
Aviation Administration.
[FR Doc. 2024-25851 Filed 11-6-24; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 4910-13-P
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