Proposed Rule2024-11839
Air Plan Approval; District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia; Update of the Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for the Washington-MD-VA 2008 8-Hour Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard Maintenance Area
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Published
June 3, 2024
Issuing agencies
Environmental Protection Agency
Abstract
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing to approve state implementation plan (SIP) revisions submitted by the District of Columbia (the District), State of Maryland (MD), and Commonwealth of Virginia (VA). The revisions update the motor vehicle emissions budgets (MVEBs) and the onroad and nonroad (except for marine, airport, and railroad) mobile emissions for volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NO<INF>X</INF>) for the years 2025 and 2030. EPA proposes to approve the updated MVEBs and updates to the applicable onroad and nonroad mobile emissions for VOC and NO<INF>X</INF> for the years 2025 and 2030. EPA is also approving the allocation of a portion of the safety margins for VOC and NO<INF>X</INF> in the ozone maintenance plan to the 2025 and 2030 MVEBs. The MVEBs will be available for transportation conformity purposes, in accordance with the requirements of the Clean Air Act (CAA).
Full Text
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<title>Federal Register, Volume 89 Issue 107 (Monday, June 3, 2024)</title>
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[Federal Register Volume 89, Number 107 (Monday, June 3, 2024)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 47474-47481]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [<a href="http://www.gpo.gov">www.gpo.gov</a>]
[FR Doc No: 2024-11839]
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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
40 CFR Part 52
[EPA-R03-OAR-2024-0162; FRL-11869-01-R3]
Air Plan Approval; District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia;
Update of the Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for the Washington-MD-VA
2008 8-Hour Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard Maintenance
Area
AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
ACTION: Proposed rule.
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SUMMARY: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing to
approve state implementation plan (SIP) revisions submitted by the
District of Columbia (the District), State of Maryland (MD), and
Commonwealth of Virginia (VA). The revisions update the
[[Page 47475]]
motor vehicle emissions budgets (MVEBs) and the onroad and nonroad
(except for marine, airport, and railroad) mobile emissions for
volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NO<INF>X</INF>)
for the years 2025 and 2030. EPA proposes to approve the updated MVEBs
and updates to the applicable onroad and nonroad mobile emissions for
VOC and NO<INF>X</INF> for the years 2025 and 2030. EPA is also
approving the allocation of a portion of the safety margins for VOC and
NO<INF>X</INF> in the ozone maintenance plan to the 2025 and 2030
MVEBs. The MVEBs will be available for transportation conformity
purposes, in accordance with the requirements of the Clean Air Act
(CAA).
DATES: Written comments must be received on or before July 3, 2024.
ADDRESSES: Submit your comments, identified by Docket ID No. EPA-R03-
OAR-2024-0162 at <a href="http://www.regulations.gov">www.regulations.gov</a>, or via email to
<a href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#33745c5c5f571d7e5654525d735643521d545c45"><span class="__cf_email__" data-cfemail="04436b6b68602a496163656a446174652a636b72">[email protected]</span></a>. For comments submitted at <a href="http://Regulations.gov">Regulations.gov</a>, follow
the online instructions for submitting comments. Once submitted,
comments cannot be edited or removed from <a href="http://Regulations.gov">Regulations.gov</a>. For either
manner of submission, EPA may publish any comment received to its
public docket. Do not submit electronically any information you
consider to be confidential business information (CBI) or other
information whose disclosure is restricted by statute. Multimedia
submissions (audio, video, etc.) must be accompanied by a written
comment. The written comment is considered the official comment and
should include discussion of all points you wish to make. EPA will
generally not consider comments or comment contents located outside of
the primary submission (i.e., on the web, cloud, or other file sharing
system). For additional submission methods, please contact the person
identified in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section. For the full
EPA public comment policy, information about CBI or multimedia
submissions, and general guidance on making effective comments, please
visit <a href="http://www.epa.gov/dockets/commenting-epa-dockets">www.epa.gov/dockets/commenting-epa-dockets</a>.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Gregory Becoat, Planning &
Implementation Branch (3AD30), Air & Radiation Division, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Region III, 1600 John F Kennedy
Boulevard, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19103. The telephone number is
(215) 814-2053. Mr. Becoat can also be reached via electronic mail at
<a href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#397b5c5a56584d177e4b5c5e564b40795c4958175e564f"><span class="__cf_email__" data-cfemail="4b092e28242a3f650c392e2c2439320b2e3b2a652c243d">[email protected]</span></a>.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: On November 14, 2023, September 6, 2023, and
October 11, 2023, the District, Maryland, and Virginia, respectively,
formally submitted requests to update the 2008 8-Hour Ozone national
ambient air quality standard (NAAQS) maintenance plan for the
Washington DC-MD-VA 2008 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS Maintenance Area (hereafter
``the Washington Area'' or ``the Area''). These revisions update the
Area's maintenance plan to include revised onroad and nonroad MVEBs for
VOCs and NO<INF>X</INF> that reflect the updated EPA Motor Vehicle
Emission Simulator (MOVES3.04) model and increased onroad vehicle
emission rates.
I. Background
On April 15, 2019 (84 FR 15108), EPA approved Maryland and
Virginia's requests to redesignate to attainment their portions of the
Washington Area from marginal nonattainment to attainment of the 2008
8-Hour Ozone NAAQS, as well as the VOC and NO<INF>X</INF> MVEBs for the
years 2014, 2025, and 2030 for the entire Area. On July 16, 2019 (84 FR
33855), EPA approved the District's request to redesignate to
attainment its portion of the Washington Area from marginal
nonattainment to attainment of the 2008 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS.
Motor vehicle budgets are the projected levels of controlled
emissions from the transportation sector (mobile sources) that are
estimated in the SIP to provide for maintenance of the ozone standard.
The transportation conformity rule (40 CFR part 93, subpart A) allows
States to update existing SIP-approved MVEBs from older emissions
models (e.g., MOVES2014 or MOVES2010), if it is determined that it is
appropriate to update the MVEBs with a new emissions model for future
conformity determinations (in this case MOVES3.04).
The current SIP-approved MVEBs for the Area were developed using
the Highway Mobile Source Emission Factor Model (MOVES2014a) to
generate onroad estimates and projections. On January 7, 2021 (86 FR
1106), EPA published an updated MOVES3 model, which became mandatory
for use in transportation conformity analyses effective January 10,
2023.
II. Summary of SIP Revision and EPA Analysis
A. Requirements for Revising Maintenance Plans
EPA's MOVES3 guidance document describes how and when to use the
latest version of the MOVES emissions model for SIP development,
transportation conformity determinations, general conformity
determinations, and other purposes.\1\ The Area submitted a SIP
revision that included an update to the MVEBs for VOCs and
NO<INF>X</INF>, that were initially developed using the MOVES2014a
model, for the years 2025 and 2030. The revised MVEBs for the onroad
MVEBs were developed using the MOVES3.04 emissions model and followed
the requirements described in EPA's MOVES3 Technical Guidance.
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\1\ EPA's MOVES3 Technical Guidance: Using MOVES to Prepare
Emission Inventories for State Implementation Plans and
Transportation Conformity is located in the EPA's guidance portal at
<a href="http://www.epa.gov/state-and-local-transportation/policy-and-technical-guidance-state-and-local-transportation">www.epa.gov/state-and-local-transportation/policy-and-technical-guidance-state-and-local-transportation</a>.
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If a state revises an existing SIP with MOVES3, it must show that
the SIP continues to meet applicable requirements with the new level of
motor vehicle emissions calculated by the new model. EPA's MOVES3
Policy Guidance provides the following description on how to meet the
applicable requirements for existing SIPs that are revised with MOVES3,
including ideas for how to streamline these revisions whenever
possible: (1) use of latest planning assumptions: the motor vehicle
emissions inventories for base year, milestone year and attainment/
maintenance year will need to be recalculated with the latest available
planning assumptions; (2) states will need to consider and evaluate
whether growth and control strategy assumptions for non-motor vehicle
sources (i.e., stationary, area, and nonroad mobile sources) are still
accurate at the time that the MOVES3 SIP revision is developed to
ensure the revised emissions inventories are consistent with the
relevant applicable requirement (e.g., reasonable further progress,
attainment, or maintenance); and (3) if these assumptions have not
changed, the state can explain this and re-submit the original SIP with
the revised motor vehicle emissions inventories and budgets to meet the
remaining applicable requirements as described in the guidance
document.\2\
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\2\ EPA's MOVES3 Policy Guidance (pp. 9-10) located in the EPA's
guidance portal at <a href="http://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2020-11/documents/420b20044_0.pdf">www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2020-11/documents/420b20044_0.pdf</a>.
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Areas may be able to revise their motor vehicle emissions
inventories and budgets using MOVES3 without revising the entire SIP or
completing additional modeling if: (1) the SIP meets applicable
requirements when the previous motor vehicle emissions inventories are
replaced with MOVES3 inventories; and (2) the state can document that
the growth and control strategy assumptions
[[Page 47476]]
for non-motor vehicle sources continue to be valid and any minor
updates do not change the overall conclusions of the SIP.\3\
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\3\ Id.
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The Area did not meet both required criteria for nonroad model
source emissions. Consequently, the SIP revision included information
addressing the recommendations described in the MOVES3 Policy Guidance.
The SIP revision includes the following: (1) a demonstration that the
2008 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS maintenance plan continues to meet applicable
requirements with the revised motor vehicle emissions inventories, as
calculated by the MOVES3.0.4 model; (2) a review of the point, nonpoint
(area), and marine, airport, and railroad (MAR) source missions
inventories for the interim and maintenance years to determine if
growth and control strategy assumptions have changed; and (3) an
assessment to confirm that excess emissions exist and the
quantification of these excess emissions for use in the safety margin
applied to the MVEBs.
B. Retaining the 2014 Attainment Year Inventories
The Area's maintenance demonstration must show that emissions of
VOC and NO<INF>X</INF> do not increase in future years beyond the
actual estimated emissions in the 2014 attainment year in order to
maintain compliance with the 2008 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS. The SIP revision
describes the revisions to the interim year and the outyear
inventories, which reflect changes in the onroad and nonroad mobile
sectors. The Area's comparative analysis of the two models showed that
NO<INF>X</INF> onroad emissions estimates generated using MOVES3.0.4
were higher than those generated by MOVES2014b for years 2021, 2023,
2025, 2030, 2040, and 2045 by 1%, 4%, 9%, 26%, 52%, and 54%,
respectively. The same analysis showed VOC onroad emissions generated
using MOVES3.0.4 were lower than those generated by MOVES2014b for
years 2021, 2023, 2025, 2030, 2040, and 2045 by 17%, 17%, 18%, 14%, 8%,
and 7%, respectively. The negligible increase in onroad NO<INF>X</INF>
emissions when comparing MOVES2014b to MOVES3.04 for the year 2021
(1%), resulted in the Area only updating 2025 and 2030 onroad emissions
while retaining the attainment year 2014 onroad emissions developed
using MOVES2014a.
The Area also compared the nonroad mobile emissions using
MOVES3.0.4 and MOVES2014a. This comparative analysis showed that the
MOVES3.0.4 nonroad model emissions were much lower compared to
MOVES2014a nonroad model emissions for 2025 and 2030. Tables 1 and 2 in
this document, show that even with the estimated lower 2014 MOVES3.0.4
nonroad model emissions, total VOC and NO<INF>X</INF> emissions from
all four sectors (point, nonpoint, nonroad, and onroad) remained higher
in 2014 compared to total emissions in 2025 and 2030. The fact that the
revised total emissions from all four sectors in 2014 was still higher
when compared to the revised total emissions in 2025 and 2030, provides
the reasoning for the Area not having to update the 2014 nonroad model
emissions using MOVES3.0.4.\4\ This is one of the most important
criteria for approval of a maintenance plan, as maintenance is
demonstrated when the emissions in the final year of the maintenance
plan are less than the emissions in the baseline attainment year. In
the current SIP-approved inventories, the attainment year is 2014 and
the maintenance year is 2030.
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\4\ Tables 1 and 2 of this document, show a comparative analysis
of the emissions inventories for the years 2014, 2025, and 2030 in
the 2017 and revised maintenance plans using both MOVES3.0.4 and
MOVES2014a. The total inventories from all sources together for 2014
are higher compared to the total inventories for 2025 and 2030 in
the revised maintenance plan.
\5\ MOVES3.0.4 nonroad model emissions for 2014 were derived by
reducing MOVES2014a nonroad model emissions for VOC and
NO<INF>X</INF> in the 2017 plan by 16.3% and 35.1% respectively in
that year.
\6\ The comparative analysis showed that while NO<INF>X</INF>
emission generated by both models are expected to be essentially the
same for 2014, VOC emission is expected to be much lower for
MOVES3.0.4 compared to MOVES2014b in that year. In this case, both
VOC and NO<INF>X</INF> emissions generated by MOVES3.0.4 are assumed
to be the same as MOVES2014a for 2014.
Table 1--2008 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS VOC Emissions Inventories for the Area in Tons per Day
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Revised
Year Point Nonpoint MAR * Nonroad Nonroad Onroad Onroad 2017 Plan maintenance
MOVES2014a MOVES3.0.4 MOVES2014a MOVES3.0.4 total plan total
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2014................................. 8.95 139.29 2.37 47.48 \5\ 39.72 61.25 \6\ 61.25 259.34 251.58
2025................................. 10.08 153.70 2.55 44.88 37.55 33.18 27.92 244.39 231.80
[Delta](2014-2025)................... -1.13 -14.41 -0.18 2.60 2.17 28.07 33.33 14.95 19.78
2030................................. 10.66 160.31 2.64 47.15 37.61 24.06 21.75 244.81 232.97
[Delta](2014-2030)................... -1.71 -21.01 -0.27 0.33 2.11 37.19 39.50 14.53 18.61
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* MAR sources are marine, airport, and railroad.
Table 2--2008 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS NOX Emissions Inventories for the Area in Tons per Day
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Revised
Year Point Nonpoint MAR * Nonroad Nonroad Onroad Onroad 2017 plan maintenance
MOVES2014a MOVES3.0.4 MOVES2014a MOVES3.0.4 total plan total
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2014................................. 79.22 9.62 19.21 51.99 \4\ 33.74 136.84 \5\ 136.84 296.88 278.63
2025................................. 80.40 9.85 21.41 29.62 19.23 40.68 46.52 181.96 177.41
[Delta](2014-2025)................... -1.18 -0.23 -2.19 22.36 14.51 96.16 90.32 114.92 101.22
2030................................. 82.87 9.96 22.36 27.80 16.94 27.39 34.26 170.38 166.39
[Delta](2014-2030)................... -3.65 -0.34 -3.14 24.19 16.80 109.45 102.58 126.51 112.24
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C. Inventories for Point Sources
EPA requires areas to demonstrate how the area will remain in
compliance with the 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS for the 10-year period following
the effective date of redesignation. One method that areas use to
demonstrate that the area will maintain the 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS is to
identify the level of ozone precursor emissions in the area which is
sufficient to attain the NAAQS (attainment year 2014 inventory) and to
show that future emissions of ozone precursors will not exceed the
attainment levels. The comparison of
[[Page 47477]]
emissions inventories includes ozone precursors from all source
categories, not only point sources.
The District, the State of Maryland, and the Commonwealth of
Virginia, separately reviewed their point source emission inventories,
growth assumptions, and control assumptions, as well as emissions
inventory data from more current actual inventories. The Area retained
the 2025 and 2030 emissions inventories for point and nonpoint sources
based on analyses of more current emissions inventory data as well as
the latest growth rates for economic indicators.
The District's analysis of the point source emissions inventory for
the 2014 attainment year for VOC and NO<INF>X</INF> was based on the
2014 National Emissions Inventory (NEI). The 2014 inventory was used as
the basis for the projection year inventories of the 2025 interim year
inventory and the 2030 outyear/maintenance year inventory. Table 3 in
this document, summarizes the 2014, 2025, and 2030 emission estimates
for the District's point sources as well as the reported VOC and
NO<INF>X</INF> emissions for 2020 and 2021 Title V sources. The data
show that the 2020 and 2021 emission estimates are below the 2014
attainment year emission estimates used in the maintenance plan. In
addition, emission projections for 2025 and 2030 are above the actual
estimates for 2020 and 2021. Based on these data, updates to the point
source inventories the District used in the 2017 plan are not necessary
to ensure continued maintenance of the 2008 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS.
Table 3--District of Columbia Point Source Inventory in Tons per Day
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Data Description NOX VOC
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2014 attainment year emissions.......... 1.22 0.45
2025 projected interim year emissions... 1.22 0.45
2030 projected outyear emissions........ 1.22 0.45
2020 actual reported emissions.......... 1.02 0.24
2021 actual reported emissions.......... 1.03 0.24
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The State of Maryland's analysis of the point source emissions
inventory for the 2014 attainment year for VOC and NO<INF>X</INF> was
based on the 2014 NEI and partially based on the 2014 Clean Air Markets
Division (CAMD) data. The 2014 inventory was used as the basis for the
projection year inventories of the 2025 interim year inventory and the
2030 outyear/maintenance year inventory. Table 4 in this document,
shows that the 2017 and 2020 actual emission estimates are well beneath
the 2025 and 2030 projected future year emission estimates used in the
maintenance plan. Therefore, when comparing the actual point source
emissions to the grown future year point source emissions that
demonstrate maintenance of the standard, the actual point source
emissions provide a buffer for other source categories such as onroad
mobile, nonroad mobile and nonpoint emissions sources. Based on these
data, updates to the point source inventories for the State of Maryland
used in the 2017 plan are not necessary to ensure continued maintenance
of the 2008 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS.
Table 4--Maryland Point Source Inventory in Tons per Day \7\
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Data description NOX VOC
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2014 attainment year emissions.......... 47.81 5.27
2025 projected interim year emissions... 53.04 6.48
2030 projected outyear emissions........ 55.18 7.02
2017 actual reported emissions.......... 49.72 2.52
2020 actual reported emissions.......... 48.18 2.71
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The Commonwealth of Virginia's analysis of the point source
emissions inventory for the 2014 attainment year for VOC and
NO<INF>X</INF> was based on the 2014 NEI and partially based on 2014
Community Emissions Data Systems (CEDS) data. The Commonwealth of
Virginia provided data for the electric generating units (EGUs) at the
only EGU in the Northern Virginia area that operated in 2014, Possum
Point Power Station. The data provided estimates of the Possum Point
Power Station's projected emissions in 2025 and 2030. In addition, the
Commonwealth of Virginia provided data for all non-EGU point sources in
the Northern Virginia area. For all non-EGU point sources except data
centers, Virginia used a ``no growth'' scenario in the 2017 plan,
assuming that future-year point-source emissions would be equivalent to
the 2014 emissions estimates. Emissions from data centers in Northern
Virginia were grown based on the estimated employment growth rate
derived from the Council of Governments (COG) Cooperative Forecasts for
each county in which each data center is located.
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\7\ Maryland's point source emission typically consists of three
different components--Electric Generating Units (EGUs), Non-Electric
Generating Units (NEGUs), and Quasi-Point Sources. The data in Table
4 in this document, does not reflect the total point source emission
inventory in Tables 1 and 2 in this document, because it includes
total VOC and NO<INF>X</INF> emissions from EGUs and Non-EGUs only
(excludes quasi-point sources).
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The 2014, 2025, and 2030 emission estimates for point sources, as
well as the reported VOC and NO<INF>X</INF> emissions for 2019, 2020,
and 2021 for sources required to provide emission statements are
summarized in Table 5 in this document. The data show that the 2021
emission estimates are well beneath the attainment year 2014 emission
estimates used in the 2017 plan. The data also show that emission
projections for 2025 and 2030 are above the actual estimates for 2021.
In addition, the data show that there is generally a downward trend in
actual emissions estimates from 2014, 2019, 2020, and 2021. Based on
these data, updates to the point source inventories for Northern
Virginia in the 2017 plan are not necessary to ensure continued
maintenance of the 2008 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS.
[[Page 47478]]
Table 5--Virginia Point Source Inventory in Tons per Day
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Data description NOX VOC
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014 attainment year emissions.......... 15.83 1.99
2025 projected interim year emissions... 11.78 1.90
2030 projected outyear emissions........ 12.11 1.94
2019 actual reported emissions.......... 13.00 1.60
2020 actual reported emissions.......... 11.21 1.37
2021 actual reported emissions.......... 7.93 1.29
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D. Nonpoint & MAR Source Emission Growth and Control Assumptions
The Area compared growth factors used to project nonpoint and MAR
emissions from 2014 to 2025 and 2030 in the 2017 plan with current
estimates from its' Cooperative Forecasts Round 9.2 and the Constrained
Element of the Long-Range Transportation Plan (CE LRTP).\8\ The
comparative analysis of the data in Table 6 in this document, shows
relatively minor changes to the nonpoint and MAR emissions growth
factors. The data shows a slight increase in population growth factors
for 2025 and 2030 and the household growth factor for 2030
(approximately 1%).\9\ Employment, households (for 2025), and vehicle
miles traveled (VMT) or lane-miles, either remain at the same level or
decrease (approximately 1% to 2%). Based on the data, EPA agrees that
the comparative analysis demonstrates that the emission estimates and
projections from nonpoint and MAR sources in the 2017 plan continue to
be valid and continue to demonstrate that the area's air quality will
remain compliant with the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
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\8\ The CE LRTP, which was updated in both 2020 and 2022, is
also known as Visualize 2045, and is the source for vehicle miles
traveled (VMT) estimates and lane-miles estimates.
\9\ Although emission sources from population growth factors
contribute about 60% and 26% of total VOC and NO<INF>X</INF>
emissions, respectively, in the 2017 plan, a 1% increase in
population growth factors, together with some amount of decrease in
other growth factors, should ensure that the overall change in
nonpoint and MAR source emissions in 2025 and 2030 would be
relatively insignificant.
Table 6--Comparison of Growth Factors in Tons per Day
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Growth factor description 2017 Plan Current factor Current factor source
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Employment (2025/2014)..................... 1.14 1.14 COG Cooperative Forecasts 9.2
(Final).
Employment (2030/2014)..................... 1.21 1.21 COG Cooperative Forecasts 9.2
(Final).
Population (2025/2014)..................... 1.12 1.13 COG Cooperative Forecasts 9.2
(Final).
Population (2030/2014)..................... 1.17 1.18 COG Cooperative Forecasts 9.2
(Final).
Household (2025/2014)...................... 1.14 1.13 COG Cooperative Forecasts 9.2
(Final).
Household (2030/2014)...................... 1.19 1.20 COG Cooperative Forecasts 9.2
(Final).
VMT (2025/2014)............................ 1.12 1.12 2020 & 2022 Amendments to Visualize
2045 (CLRP).
VMT (2030/2014)............................ 1.17 1.16 2020 & 2022 Amendments to Visualize
2045 (CLRP).
Lane-Miles (2025/2014)..................... 1.06 1.04 2020 & 2022 Amendments to Visualize
2045 (CLRP).
Lane-Miles (2030/2014)..................... 1.06 1.06 2020 & 2022 Amendments to Visualize
2045 (CLRP).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
E. Onroad and Nonroad Mobile Model Sources
The Area updated the projection inventories for NO<INF>X</INF> and
VOC for the interim year 2025 and the outyear 2030. The current SIP-
approved NO<INF>X</INF> and VOC inventories for onroad and nonroad
(except for MAR) mobile sources for 2014, 2025 and 2030 were developed
using the MOVES2014a model in the 2017 plan. EPA's MOVES3.0.4 model
incorporates the latest emissions data and allows users to model the
benefits from new regulations promulgated since MOVES2014a. In
particular, the MOVES3.0.4 model contains nonroad equipment population
growth rates and diesel Tier 4 emission rates that have been updated
since MOVES2014a. As a result, MOVES3.0.4 generates different nonroad
and onroad mobile emissions estimates than MOVES2014a. For this reason,
the Area is updating its 2025 and 2030 onroad and nonroad (except for
MAR) mobile emissions in this revised plan using the MOVES3.0.4 model.
The Area did not update the inventories for the attainment year 2014 as
discussed in detail in section II.B. in this document.
Based on the onroad mobile emissions trend shown in this SIP
revision and the most recent air quality conformity analysis for the
Area, onroad mobile source emissions are decreasing due to the
implementation of the National Low Emission Vehicle Program (NLEV), the
Heavy-Duty Engine and Vehicle Standards (HDDV), Tier 3, and Safer
Affordable Fuel Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles and Corporate Average Fuel
Economy (CAFE) rules, Stage II, and Maryland's LEV/ZEV (Low Emission
Vehicle/Zero Emission Vehicle) programs. These emission reductions
occur even as VMT estimates continue to grow. This trend and onroad
mobile source emission reductions ensures continued maintenance of the
2008 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS.
F. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets and Safety Margins
The Area's maintenance plan includes NO<INF>X</INF> and VOC MVEBs
for 2025 and 2030, an interim year and an outyear of the maintenance
period, respectively. The budgets were developed as part of an
interagency consultation process which includes Federal, state, and
local agencies. The budgets were clearly identified and precisely
quantified. This process was consistent with the aforementioned
requirements of 40 CFR part 93. These budgets, when considered together
with all other emissions sources, are consistent with maintenance of
the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
This rulemaking revises the budgets for mobile sources in the
Washington Area. The maintenance plan is designed to provide for future
growth while still maintaining the 2008 ozone NAAQS. Growth in
industries, population, and traffic is offset by reductions from
cleaner cars and other emission reduction programs. Through the
[[Page 47479]]
maintenance plan, the state and local agencies can manage and maintain
clean air quality while providing for growth.
The Area updated the 2025 and 2030 MVEBs, for NO<INF>X</INF> and
VOC, using MOVES3.0.4 and updated planning assumptions. These MVEBs
will ensure that transportation emissions conform with each state's
SIP. Table 7 in this document, presents the revised MVEBs for 2025 and
2030 along with the retained 2014 MVEBs from the 2017 plan (using
MOVES2014a). The Area added safety margins for the projected onroad
mobile VOC and NO<INF>X</INF> emissions when developing the MVEBs for
2025 and 2030. A ``safety margin,'' as defined in the transportation
conformity rule (40 CFR part 93, subpart A), is the amount by which the
total projected emissions from all sources of a given pollutant are
less than the total emissions that would satisfy the applicable
requirement for reasonable further progress, attainment, or
maintenance. The attainment level of emissions is the level of
emissions during one of the years (2014) in which the Area met the
NAAQS.
The 2017 plan demonstrated that the Area attained the 2008 8-Hour
Ozone NAAQS and could therefore emit up to the attainment year 2014
emission level. Table 7 in this document, gives detailed information on
the safety margin for the Area. Table 7 in this document, shows the
differences in total emissions for VOC and NO<INF>X</INF> from all
sources between the attainment year 2014 and the intermediate year 2025
and the attainment year 2014 and the final maintenance year 2030. The
differences between the projected emissions in the years 2025 and 2030
and the actual emissions in the year 2014 are referred to as the
``safety margin'' or the amount of excess emission reductions.\10\ All
or a portion of these safety margins can be allotted to onroad mobile
source inventories to develop MVEBs. The Area allotted only portions of
the total available safety margins for VOC and NO<INF>X</INF> when
developing the revised MVEBs for 2025 and 2030.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\10\ The differences in emissions provide estimates of the total
available safety margins in tons per day (tpd) for VOC for 2025
(27.7 tpd) and 2030 (44.9 tpd) and for NO<INF>X</INF> for 2025
(101.1 tpd) and 2030 (130.4 tpd).
Table 7--Revised Onroad Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets Using MOVES3.0.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VOC onroad emissions NOX onroad emissions
Year (tpd) (tpd)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014 Attainment Year.......................................... 61.25 136.84
2025 Predicted Emissions without Safety Margin................ 27.92 46.52
2025 Safety Margin............................................ 5.58 9.30
2025 Interim Budget with Safety Margin........................ 33.50 55.82
2030 Predicted Emissions without Safety Margin................ 21.75 34.26
2030 Safety Margin............................................ 4.35 6.85
2030 Final Budget with Safety Margin.......................... 26.10 41.11
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Area has requested a partial allocation of the safety margin to
the onroad mobile emissions inventory projections for VOC and
NO<INF>X</INF> in 2025 and 2030. The allocation will add 5.58 tpd of
VOC and 9.30 tpd of NO<INF>X</INF> from the safety margins to the 2025
emission inventories, and 4.35 tpd of VOC and 6.85 tpd of
NO<INF>X</INF> from the safety margins to the 2030 emission
inventories. Tables 8 and 9 in this document, show that the 2025 and
the 2030 projected emissions, even with this allocation, will be below
the 2014 attainment year emissions for both VOC and NO<INF>X</INF>,
respectively.
Table 8--The Area Revised Maintenance Plan VOC Emissions, 2014 to 2030, Including MVEBs With Safety Margins
[tpd]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014 W/o 2014 With 2025 W/o 2025 With 2030 W/o 2030 With
Source category safety safety safety safety safety safety
margins margins margins margins margins margins
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Point............................. 7.71 7.71 8.83 8.83 9.41 9.41
Nonpoint.......................... 139.29 139.29 153.70 153.70 160.31 160.31
MAR............................... 2.37 2.37 2.55 2.55 2.64 2.64
Nonroad........................... 47.48 47.48 37.55 37.55 37.61 37.61
On-road MVEBs..................... 61.25 61.25 27.92 33.50 21.75 26.10
Quasi-Point....................... 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.24
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total......................... 259.34 259.34 231.80 237.37 232.97 237.31
Change from 2014.............. n/a n/a 27.54 21.97 26.37 22.03
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 9--The Area Revised Maintenance Plan NOX Emissions, 2014 to 2030, Including MVEBs With Safety Margins
[tpd]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014 W/o 2014 With 2025 W/o 2025 With 2030 W/o 2030 With
Source category safety safety safety safety safety safety
margins margins margins margins margins margins
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Point............................. 64.85 64.85 66.03 66.03 68.50 68.50
Nonpoint.......................... 9.62 9.62 9.85 9.85 9.96 9.96
MAR............................... 19.21 19.21 21.41 21.41 22.36 22.36
[[Page 47480]]
Nonroad........................... 51.99 51.99 19.23 19.23 16.94 16.94
On-road MVEBs..................... 136.84 136.84 46.52 55.82 34.26 41.11
Quasi-Point....................... 14.37 14.37 14.37 14.37 14.37 14.37
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total......................... 296.88 296.88 177.41 186.71 166.40 173.24
Change from 2014.............. n/a n/a 119.47 110.17 130.48 123.64
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Area has demonstrated that it will continue to maintain the
2008 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS, even after updating the onroad emissions
estimates using the MOVES3.0.4 model. For this reason, EPA finds that
the updated MVEBs and the allocation of the safety margins to the 2025
and 2030 budgets for the Area, meet the requirements of the
transportation conformity regulations at 40 CFR part 93 and are
approvable.
III. Proposed Action
EPA is proposing to approve the Washington Area's SIP revision
updating the MVEBs and the onroad and nonroad (except for marine,
airport, and railroad) mobile emissions for VOC and NO<INF>X</INF> for
the years 2025 and 2030. Additionally, EPA is proposing to approve the
allocation of a portion of the safety margins for VOC and
NO<INF>X</INF> in the ozone maintenance plan to the 2025 and 2030
budgets. EPA is soliciting public comments on the issues discussed in
this document. These comments will be considered before taking final
action.
IV. General Information Pertaining to SIP Submittals From the
Commonwealth of Virginia
In 1995, Virginia adopted legislation that provides, subject to
certain conditions, for an environmental assessment (audit)
``privilege'' for voluntary compliance evaluations performed by a
regulated entity. The legislation further addresses the relative burden
of proof for parties either asserting the privilege or seeking
disclosure of documents for which the privilege is claimed. Virginia's
legislation also provides, subject to certain conditions, for a penalty
waiver for violations of environmental laws when a regulated entity
discovers such violations pursuant to a voluntary compliance evaluation
and voluntarily discloses such violations to the Commonwealth and takes
prompt and appropriate measures to remedy the violations. Virginia's
Voluntary Environmental Assessment Privilege Law, Va. Code Sec.
10.1198, provides a privilege that protects from disclosure documents
and information about the content of those documents that are the
product of a voluntary environmental assessment. The Privilege Law does
not extend to documents or information that: (1) are generated or
developed before the commencement of a voluntary environmental
assessment; (2) are prepared independently of the assessment process;
(3) demonstrate a clear, imminent, and substantial danger to the public
health or environment; or (4) are required by law.
On January 12, 1998, the Commonwealth of Virginia Office of the
Attorney General provided a legal opinion that states that the
Privilege Law, Va. Code Sec. 10.1-1198, precludes granting a privilege
to documents and information ``required by law,'' including documents
and information ``required by Federal law to maintain program
delegation, authorization or approval,'' since Virginia must ``enforce
Federally authorized environmental programs in a manner that is no less
stringent than their Federal counterparts. . . .'' The opinion
concludes that ``[r]egarding Sec. 10.1-1198, therefore, documents or
other information needed for civil or criminal enforcement under one of
these programs could not be privileged because such documents and
information are essential to pursuing enforcement in a manner required
by Federal law to maintain program delegation, authorization or
approval.''
Virginia's Immunity Law, Va. Code Sec. 10.1-1199, provides that
``[t]o the extent consistent with requirements imposed by Federal
law,'' any person making a voluntary disclosure of information to a
state agency regarding a violation of an environmental statute,
regulation, permit, or administrative order is granted immunity from
administrative or civil penalty. The Attorney General's January 12,
1998 opinion states that the quoted language renders this statute
inapplicable to enforcement of any Federally authorized programs, since
``no immunity could be afforded from administrative, civil, or criminal
penalties because granting such immunity would not be consistent with
Federal law, which is one of the criteria for immunity.''
Therefore, the EPA has determined that Virginia's Privilege and
Immunity statutes will not preclude the Commonwealth from enforcing its
program consistent with the Federal requirements. In any event, because
the EPA has also determined that a state audit privilege and immunity
law can affect only state enforcement and cannot have any impact on
Federal enforcement authorities, the EPA may at any time invoke its
authority under the CAA, including, for example, sections 113, 167,
205, 211 or 213, to enforce the requirements or prohibitions of the
state plan, independently of any state enforcement effort. In addition,
citizen enforcement under section 304 of the CAA is likewise unaffected
by this, or any, state audit privilege or immunity law.
V. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
Under the CAA, the Administrator is required to approve a SIP
submission that complies with the provisions of the CAA and applicable
Federal regulations. 42 U.S.C. 7410(k); 40 CFR 52.02(a). Thus, in
reviewing SIP submissions, the EPA's role is to approve state choices,
provided that they meet the criteria of the CAA. Accordingly, this
action merely approves state law as meeting Federal requirements and
does not impose additional requirements beyond those imposed by state
law. For that reason, this proposed action:
<bullet> Is not a significant regulatory action subject to review
by the Office of Management and Budget under Executive Orders 12866 (58
FR 51735, October 4, 1993) and 13563 (76 FR 3821, January 21, 2011);
[[Page 47481]]
<bullet> Does not impose an information collection burden under the
provisions of the Paperwork Reduction Act (44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq.);
<bullet> Is certified as not having a significant economic impact
on a substantial number of small entities under the Regulatory
Flexibility Act (5 U.S.C. 601 et seq.);
<bullet> Does not contain any unfunded mandate or significantly or
uniquely affect small governments, as described in the Unfunded
Mandates Reform Act of 1995 (Pub. L. 104-4);
<bullet> Does not have federalism implications as specified in
Executive Order 13132 (64 FR 43255, August 10, 1999);
<bullet> Is not an economically significant regulatory action based
on health or safety risks subject to Executive Order 13045 (62 FR
19885, April 23, 1997);
<bullet> Is not a significant regulatory action subject to
Executive Order 13211 (66 FR 28355, May 22, 2001); and
<bullet> Is not subject to requirements of Section 12(d) of the
National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act of 1995 (15 U.S.C. 272
note) because application of those requirements would be inconsistent
with the Clean Air Act;
This action does not have tribal implications as specified by
Executive Order 13175 (65 FR 67249, November 9, 2000), because this
action is not approved to apply in Indian country located in the
Commonwealth of Virginia, State of Maryland, or District of Columbia,
and EPA notes that it will not impose substantial direct costs on
tribal governments or preempt tribal law.
Executive Order 12898 (Federal Actions to Address Environmental
Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations, 59 FR 7629,
February 16, 1994) directs Federal agencies to identify and address
``disproportionately high and adverse human health or environmental
effects'' of their actions on minority populations and low-income
populations to the greatest extent practicable and permitted by law.
The EPA defines environmental justice (EJ) as ``the fair treatment and
meaningful involvement of all people regardless of race, color,
national origin, or income with respect to the development,
implementation, and enforcement of environmental laws, regulations, and
policies.'' The EPA further defines the term fair treatment to mean
that ``no group of people should bear a disproportionate burden of
environmental harms and risks, including those resulting from the
negative environmental consequences of industrial, governmental, and
commercial operations or programs and policies.''
The District of Columbia, State of Maryland, and Commonwealth of
Virginia did not evaluate environmental justice considerations as part
of the SIP submittal; the CAA and applicable implementing regulations
neither prohibit nor require such an evaluation. The EPA did not
perform an EJ analysis and did not consider EJ in this action.
Consideration of EJ is not required as part of this action, and there
is no information in the record inconsistent with the stated goal of
E.O. 12898 of achieving environmental justice for people of color, low-
income populations, and Indigenous peoples.
List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52
Environmental protection, Air pollution control, Incorporation by
reference, Intergovernmental relations, Nitrogen dioxide, Ozone,
Reporting and recordkeeping requirements, Volatile organic compounds.
Adam Ortiz,
Regional Administrator, Region III.
[FR Doc. 2024-11839 Filed 5-31-24; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6560-50-P
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This is legal information, not legal advice. Laws vary by jurisdiction and change frequently. Always verify current law with official sources and consult a licensed attorney in your jurisdiction for advice on your specific situation.