Proposed Rule2022-25415
Resumption of the Population Estimates Challenge Program and Proposed Changes to the Program
Primary source
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Published
November 22, 2022
Issuing agencies
Commerce DepartmentCensus Bureau
Abstract
The Bureau of the Census (Census Bureau) is proposing to amend the regulations for the Population Estimates Challenge Program which provides eligible general-purpose governmental entities (units) with the opportunity to file requests for the review of their population estimates for 2021 and subsequent years in forthcoming estimates series, beginning with the Vintage 2022 series that is scheduled to be published in 2023. Under this program, a governmental unit may file a challenge to its official population estimate by submitting additional data to the Census Bureau for evaluation, or by identifying a technical error in processing input data or producing the estimates. Specifically, the Census Bureau is proposing to amend its regulations to: update references to the input data used to produce the official population estimates and revise the evidence required to support a challenge.
Full Text
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<title>Federal Register, Volume 87 Issue 224 (Tuesday, November 22, 2022)</title>
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[Federal Register Volume 87, Number 224 (Tuesday, November 22, 2022)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 71269-71271]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [<a href="http://www.gpo.gov">www.gpo.gov</a>]
[FR Doc No: 2022-25415]
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DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Census Bureau
15 CFR Part 90
[Docket Number: 221116-0243]
RIN 0607-AA60
Resumption of the Population Estimates Challenge Program and
Proposed Changes to the Program
AGENCY: Census Bureau, Department of Commerce.
ACTION: Notice of proposed rulemaking and request for comments.
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SUMMARY: The Bureau of the Census (Census Bureau) is proposing to amend
the regulations for the Population Estimates Challenge Program which
provides eligible general-purpose governmental entities (units) with
the opportunity to file requests for the review of their population
estimates for 2021 and subsequent years in forthcoming estimates
series, beginning with the Vintage 2022 series that is scheduled to be
published in 2023. Under this program, a governmental unit may file a
challenge to its official population estimate by submitting additional
data to the Census Bureau for evaluation, or by identifying a technical
error in processing input data or producing the estimates.
Specifically, the Census Bureau is proposing to amend its regulations
to: update references to the input data used to produce the official
population estimates and revise the evidence required to support a
challenge.
DATES: Written comments must be submitted on or before December 22,
2022.
ADDRESSES: Interested persons are invited to submit written comments by
email to <a href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#adfde2fd83cec5ccc1c1c8c3cac8ed91cc8dc5dfc8cb90" http: census.gov">census.gov</a>">POP.challenge@<a href="http://census.gov">census.gov</a></a>. You also may submit comments,
identified by RIN number 0607-AA60, to the Federal e-Rulemaking Portal:
<a href="https://www.regulations.gov">https://www.regulations.gov</a>. All comments received are a part of the
public record. Comments will be posted to <a href="https://www.regulations.gov">https://www.regulations.gov</a>
for public viewing on a rolling basis. Comments generally will be
posted without change. All Personal Identifying Information (for
example, name, address) voluntarily submitted by the commenter may be
publicly accessible. Do not submit Confidential Business Information or
otherwise sensitive or protected information. The Census Bureau will
accept anonymous comments (enter N/A in the required fields, if you
wish to remain anonymous). You may submit attachments to electronic
comments in Microsoft Word, Excel, or Adobe PDF file formats only.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Requests for additional information
should be directed to Amel Toukabri, Chief, Local Government Estimates
and Migration Processing Branch, Population Division, 301-763-2461 or
<a href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#de8e918ef0bdb6bfb2b2bbb0b9bb9ee2bffeb6acbbb8e3" http: census.gov">census.gov</a>">POP.challenge@<a href="http://census.gov">census.gov</a></a>.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Background
The Census Bureau typically releases annual population estimates,
in accordance with Title 13 of the United States Code (U.S.C.). These
estimates are typically based to some extent upon the most recent
Decennial Census of Population and Housing and compiled from the most
current administrative and survey data available for that purpose.
Although not required by any statute, the Census Bureau also typically
offers an opportunity for local units of general-purpose government
(hereinafter collectively ``governmental unit'') to challenge these
official estimates through its Population
[[Page 71270]]
Estimates Challenge Program. Under this program, a governmental unit
may challenge its population estimate by submitting additional data to
the Census Bureau for evaluation, or by identifying a technical error
in processing input data or producing the estimates. If the additional
data are accepted during the review period by the Census Bureau,
resulting in an updated population estimate, the Census Bureau will
provide a written notification to the governmental unit and publish the
revised estimate at <a href="http://www.census.gov">www.census.gov</a>. If the additional data are not
accepted for a revised estimate, the Census Bureau will notify the
governmental unit. In the challenge process, the Census Bureau will
only accept a challenge when the evidence provided indicates the use of
incorrect data, processes, or calculations in the estimates.
In this proposed rule, the Census Bureau is proposing to amend its
regulations to: (1) update references to the input data used to produce
the official population estimates, and (2) revise the evidence required
to support a challenge.
The Census Bureau is also soliciting comments from the public about
any ways in which the program might be improved. In particular, the
Census Bureau welcomes comments about (1) the methodology used in
preparing the annual Population Estimates, (2) the sources of data that
the agency considers (or does not consider) in preparing the annual
Population Estimates, and (3) what sorts of factual or methodological
arguments the agency considers (or does not consider) in evaluating a
potential challenge.
Currently, the Census Bureau begins the process of preparing
population estimates by updating population information from the most
recent decennial census and other sources with information found in the
annual administrative records of Federal and State Agencies. The
Federal Agencies provide tax records, Medicare records, and some vital
records and group quarters information. The State Agencies from the
Federal-State Cooperative for Population Estimates (FSCPE), designated
by their respective governors to work in cooperation with the Census
Bureau's Population Estimates Program to produce population estimates,
also supply vital statistics and information about group quarters like
college dorms or prisons.\1\ The Census Bureau combines census base
data, administrative records, and selected survey data to produce
current population estimates that usually begin with the last decennial
census. Additionally, the Census Bureau's general-purpose governmental
units' population estimates are provided to the FSCPE agencies in
preliminary form for review and comment to resolve data processing
issues identified during that period. For the purposes of this program,
the District of Columbia is treated as a statistical equivalent of a
county and, therefore, eligible to participate.
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\1\ <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/about/fscpe.html">https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/about/fscpe.html</a>.
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A major priority for the Census Bureau is balancing the need to use
the 2020 Census counts at the lowest level of estimates geography as
the starting point in estimates production with the statutory
obligation to protect the respondents' confidentiality at every stage
of the data lifecycle. Since the 1990 Census, the Bureau has added
``noise''--or variations from the actual count--to the collected data
to ensure privacy and confidentiality. For 2020 Census data, the Census
Bureau applied noise using a newer disclosure avoidance framework based
on ``differential privacy''.\2\ The Census Bureau uses a housing unit
method to distribute a county population to places within its legal
boundaries. The components in this method include housing units
estimates, average household population per housing unit, and an
estimate of the population in group quarters. The estimation formula
was simplified to increase the accuracy of the estimates following the
application of differential privacy as per the Census Bureau's new
disclosure avoidance framework: to minimize the impact of differential
privacy on the population estimates, the Census Bureau reduced the
number of components requiring privacy protection used to generate
population estimates. Consequently, the occupancy rate and Persons Per
Household (PPH) previously used in this method were replaced with the
average household population per housing unit. The household population
and the group quarters population used in the calculation of the
estimate are the only two components subject to differential privacy
protection compared to three components--occupancy rate, PPH, and group
quarters population--that would have otherwise required privacy
protection. Therefore, the PPH and occupancy rate components are no
longer inputs used to produce those population estimates. The
distributive housing unit equation used to calculate the population
estimates for governmental units is simplified to accommodate the
application of the disclosure avoidance technique prior to releasing
the estimates. As a result, the Census Bureau is proposing to amend 15
CFR part 90 to revise: (1) references to the input data used to produce
the official population estimates, (2) where to file a challenge and
(3) the evidence required to support a challenge. These changes are
captured in the proposed updates to Sec. Sec. 90.2, 90.7, and 90.8.
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\2\ For more information about the differential privacy
technique, visit Understanding Differential Privacy (<a href="http://census.gov">census.gov</a>).
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The Census Bureau proposes no technical changes to its regulations
except in the following sections:
Sections 90.2 and 90.7--to ensure that the regulatory text more
accurately describes how the Population Estimates Challenge Program has
always functioned and is expected to function in the future. This
proposed clarification does not reflect any operational changes.
Section 90.8--to update the challengeable components of change.
Regulatory Flexibility Act
The Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA), as amended by the Small
Business Regulatory Enforcement Fairness Act of 1996 (SBREFA), 5 U.S.C.
601 et seq., generally requires an agency to prepare a regulatory
flexibility analysis of any rule subject to the notice and comment
rulemaking requirements under the Administrative Procedure Act (5
U.S.C. 553) or any other statute, unless the agency certifies that the
rule will not have a significant economic impact on a substantial
number of small entities. Under section 605(b) of the RFA, however, if
the head of an agency certifies that a rule will not have a significant
impact on a substantial number of small entities, the statute does not
require the agency to prepare a regulatory flexibility analysis.
Pursuant to section 605(b), the Chief Counsel for Regulation,
Department of Commerce, submitted a memorandum to the Chief Counsel for
Advocacy, Small Business Administration, certifying that this proposed
rule will not have a significant impact on a substantial number of
small entities.
Number of Small Entities
This proposed rule, if implemented, would impact only governmental
units, some of which may be considered a small entity under the RFA.
The RFA defines ``small entity'' as a small business, small
organization, or small governmental jurisdiction. Specifically, the RFA
defines ``small governmental jurisdiction'' as the government of a
city, county, town, school district, or special district with a
population of less
[[Page 71271]]
than 50,000. Using this criterion, the Census Bureau estimates that
around 37,000 small governmental jurisdictions would be impacted by
this rulemaking.
Economic Impact
The Census Bureau does not anticipate any economic impact as a
result of this proposed rule. This rulemaking intends to resume the
implementation of the Population Estimates Challenge Program in 2023 to
provide eligible entities the opportunity to file a challenge to
population estimates for 2021 and subsequent years in forthcoming
estimates series, beginning with the Vintage 2022 series that is
scheduled to be published in 2023. There are no direct costs imposed on
governmental entities (units) that wish to initiate a challenge under
the Population Estimates Challenge Program.
Executive Orders
This rulemaking has been determined to be not significant for
purposes of Executive Order 12866. This proposed rule does not contain
policies with federalism implications as that term is defined in
Executive Order 13132.
Paperwork Reduction Act
This notice of proposed rulemaking does not contain a collection of
information subject to the requirements of the Paperwork Reduction Act
(PRA), 44 U.S.C., Chapter 35. Notwithstanding any other provision of
the law, no person is required to respond to, nor shall any person be
subject to a penalty for failure to comply with, a collection of
information subject to the requirements of the PRA, unless that
collection of information displays a currently valid Office of
Management and Budget (OMB) Control Number.
Robert L. Santos, Director, Census Bureau, approved the publication
of this notification in the Federal Register.
List of Subjects in 15 CFR Part 90
Administrative practice and procedure, Census data, Population
census, Statistics.
For the reasons set forth in the preamble, Census Bureau proposes
to amend 15 CFR part 90 as follows:
PART 90--PROCEDURE FOR CHALLENGING POPULATION ESTIMATES
0
1. The authority citation for part 90 continues to read as follows:
Authority: 13 U.S.C. 4 and 181.
0
2. Revise Sec. 90.2 to read as follows:
Sec. 90.2 Policy of the Census Bureau.
It is the policy of the Census Bureau to provide the most accurate
population estimates possible given the constraints of resources and
available statistical techniques. It is also the policy of the Census
Bureau, to the extent feasible, to provide governmental units the
opportunity to seek a review of and provide additional data for these
estimates and to present evidence relating to the accuracy of the
estimates.
0
3. Revise Sec. 90.7 to read as follows:
Sec. 90.7 Where to file a challenge.
A request for a population estimate challenge must be prepared in
writing by the governmental unit and filed with the Chief, Population
Division, Census Bureau by sending the request via email to
<a href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7a2a352a5419121b16161f141d1f3a461b5a12081f1c47" http: census.gov">census.gov</a>">POP.challenge@<a href="http://census.gov">census.gov</a></a>. The governmental unit must designate a
contact person who can be reached by telephone or email during normal
business hours should questions arise with regard to the submitted
materials.
0
4. Amend Sec. 90.8 by revising paragraphs (a), (c), and (d) to read as
follows:
Sec. 90.8 Evidence required.
(a) The governmental unit shall provide whatever evidence it has
relevant to the request at the time of filing. The Census Bureau may
request further evidence when necessary. The evidence submitted must be
consistent with the criteria, standards, and regular processes the
Census Bureau employs to generate the population estimate. The Census
Bureau challenge process cannot accept estimates developed from methods
different from those used by the Census Bureau. The Census Bureau will
only accept a challenge when the evidence provided indicates the use of
incorrect data, processes, or calculations in the estimates.
* * * * *
(c) For minor civil divisions and incorporated places, the Census
Bureau uses a housing unit method to distribute a county population to
places within its legal boundaries. The components in this method
include housing units estimates, average household population per
housing unit, and an estimate of the population in group quarters. The
estimation formula was simplified to increase the accuracy of the
estimates following the application of differential privacy as per the
Census Bureau's new disclosure avoidance framework. As a result, the
persons per household (PPH) and occupancy rate components were replaced
with the average household population per housing unit. Consequently,
the PPH and occupancy rate are no longer inputs used to produce those
population estimates and are not eligible to be challenged. The Census
Bureau will consider a challenge based on data related to changes in an
area's housing stock, such as data on demolitions, condemned units,
uninhabitable units, building permits, or mobile home placements or
other housing inventory-based data deemed comparable by the Census
Bureau. The Census Bureau will also consider a challenge based on
additional information about the group quarters population in a
locality.
(d) The Census Bureau will also provide a guide on its website as a
reference for governmental units to use in developing their data as
evidence to support a challenge to the population estimate. In
addition, a governmental unit may address any additional questions by
contacting the Census Bureau at 301-763-2461 or by sending emails to
<a href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#38687768165b505954545d565f5d78045918504a5d5e05" http: census.gov">census.gov</a>">POP.challenge@<a href="http://census.gov">census.gov</a></a>.
Dated: November 17, 2022.
Shannon Wink,
Program Analyst, Policy Coordination Office, U.S. Census Bureau.
[FR Doc. 2022-25415 Filed 11-21-22; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 3510-07-P
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